But as time goes by and there is no confrontation, and particularly if China shows itself to not be seeking to grab more space in the SCS, or infringe on the economic activates of others there...and particularly if those forces, while keeping a low profile, assist in controlling and eradicating piracy in the area...then over time I expect it will simply come to be recognized as the new normal.
What makes you think the likes of Vietnam and the Philippines would not seek to escalate the situation as a means of sucking America into the dispute to fight their battles for them?
You also talk as if it was America's place to decide what is acceptable and allowable, and that it is down to American good graces to allow China's presence in the SCS, China's own backyard.
I think more than anything, it is this superior and presumptuous attitude that China resents the most.
America is not the world's judge, jury and executioner. It is not America's responsibly or place to police the world and tell others how to behave.
America has national interests it wants to and needs to protect and look after, but the SCS isn't remotely close to being one of those interests, and China has not done anything to jeopardise any American interests with its island building.
China building islands in the SCS does absolutely nothing to damage American national interests, and FON has never even been a real issue. Its just an excuse and pretext for the USN to get involved.
Even if America was genuinely worried about the impact of those islands on FON, the Lassen has already shown that China will not seek to stop ships sailing that close to its islands even if it doesn't like it. Point made, FON is a non-issue. The logical thing would have been to just leave that precedent as established and move on. Further FON missions would only be needed if China actually tried to limit the movements of ships near its islands.
The continued FON thus seems more like intimidation rather than something based on a genuine concern. Its like someone who lives on the other side of town prowling around along your fence with a loaded shotgun starring at you.
He is perfectly within his rights to do that, but don't think for a second that's the right thing to do. Such displays isn't more likely to get someone to "behave", its more likely to get your "mark" to ready his own shotgun.
If lowering tensions was the real goal, continued FON missions seems like the last thing the US would want to be doing.
The US will continue to conduct FON exercises (albeit over time, less frequently)...and other nations may join in that. But as long as the heat stays down and it goes on with nothing untorward occurring...I expect things will proceed with that new normal.
At least I hope it will go that way.
...and quite frankly, short of someone doing something foolish and intentionally aggravating it, I think that is how it will go.
So what do you think will happen if and when the likes of Vietnam and the Philippines co-ops America's FON missions and decide to use that to contest Chinese ownership and control of islands?
What if they send ships within 12nm or islands that would have qualified for their own territorial seas before construction? What if they break the 4nm parameter?
What if China decide to start tit-for-tat FON missions of its own against all islands and features occupied by others?
By needlessly entangling itself in the dispute, and launch the FON missions, the US has, wittingly or not, open a dangerous door that could very easily lead to significant increase in tensions in an already high tense and charge region and subject.
