PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Wonder if Xisha would turn into a foward deployed naval base in the future? It's closer to Spratley than Haian, therefore better able to handle contingencies. They haven't yet, but they removing the wavebreaker in one section to enlarge the opening to allow bigger ships coming in.
I believe it most certainly will become a staging area if ever necessary for the PLAN and its operations in the SCS.

They are really making some excellent improvements there, and establishing the facilities that could do so.

In addition, they are establishing the civil infrastructure necessary for the prefecture administration which extends into the whole of the SCS. I expect militarily Sansha will be the same.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
This is probably the best recent photo of Woody Island and Sansha overall. Not the detail of the close ups seen...but the entire Island.

The PRC, as I said, has generated a big success there...and given the type of reclamation, improvements, and infrastructure they have and are putting in place there, it gives you a model of what to expect on the other large reclamation projects they have accomplished further South.

sansha-14.jpg
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
This is probably the best recent photo of Woody Island and Sansha overall. Not the detail of the close ups seen...but the entire Island.

The PRC, as I said, has generated a big success there...and given the type of reclamation, improvements, and infrastructure they have and are putting in place there, it gives you a model of what to expect on the other large reclamation projects they have accomplished further South.

View attachment 16121
What do you suppose the odds are China may someday build hardened bunkers for a regiment of strike fighters?
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
What do you suppose the odds are China may someday build hardened bunkers for a regiment of strike fighters?

sansha-05.jpg

I'm not sure how thick the concrete is...but they already have some hefty hangers built.

A PLAAF regiment is typically 24 or more aircraft. A PLANAF regiment is a little smaller, 18 or more.

I do not see them basing aircraft in regimental strength there permanently. I do not believe Sansha's facilities, even if expanded, would be large enough to permanently station a full regiment of strike aircraft there permanently with all of the other support aircraft and other logistical equipment and personnel necessary. PArticulalry when you consider the other types of aircraft they probably will station there in addition to that.

Perhaps twelve strike aircraft on a permanent basis.

Who knows?

There is no doubt in my mind though that they will have some Maritime patrol and fighter aircraft based there.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Well, in light of Admiral Harris' comments, let me share my thoughts.

IMHO, China has planned very well, built up its resources, and then waited for the appropriate time according to its own time table to strengthen its position in the SCS.

I believe China would have done this irrespective of what small efforts Vietnam and the Philippines made....and also whether Obama failed with his "red Line," in Syria or not.

China is steadily and carefully working towards its own time table and accomplishment of what it feels are in its national interests.

The Philippines has little resource to attempt anything even minutely comparable.

Hanoi knows it cannot match China at all either...but it is not trying to. It's efforts are based on what it can accomplish, what resources it has, what defense it is building up, and what support it thinks it may get. It is not going to confront China.

More likely, it is simply seeking to strengthen what it already has in conjunction with what I just mentioned...IOW, within the scope of what it can accomplish given its resources, its own military, and the minimum support it thinks it might get, Vietnam is simply trying to solidify what it already has so it can best defend it if necessary.

Admiral Harris is stating things from a US perspective which knows it cannot do a thing to stop China's reclamation efforts on those positions it already occupies. He seeking to punctuate the US claims and desires for free navigation and trying to establish a warning in that regard. What he has said is true...if it came to it, the targeting of those fixed locations would be locked in.

But unless the US is prepared to occupy or completely cut off those islands...then that ultimately accomplishes little, and would only lead to a full scsale conflict in the SCS. In other words, unless that already happens, the US would not act in that regard.

Sansha and then the three principle islands in the Spratley area are all going to be mutually supportive, and very much supported by the mainland...reaching down through Sansha. The US would have to fight an all out war at sea to try and prevent that. The US, IMHO, is not only unprepared to do that...but they have no compelling reason to do so.

China knows this and it not likely to suddenly stumble in its careful planning and do something foolish as to make a pretext for it.

The fact is...with the positions that they have established and are in the process of completing...and the influence it will give them....they are going to be in a position to offer to work with Hanoi and Manila to find ways to help all who are willing to economically benefit...but doing it on terms favorable to Beijing.

The one island shown that Hanoi is improving, and anything that the Philippines can do with that cargo ship on the one reef will not mean a thing to any of that. They amount to knits on the back of an elephant...ot tinkling in the wind.

China has already put in place...very rapidly and with a huge, planned expenditure of resource...the position and facilities to establish itself exactly where it wants to be in the SCS. I do not see them suddenly going wild eyed. They will simply continue and make use of the position they have established and proceed now from a position of strength.

I expect once all of those islands and bases are completed with their infrastructure...and an influx of more equipment and personnel, that they will offer the velvet glove to any of the nations that want to take it, and help meet their own resource needs, while providing benefit to those who accept it.

That's what I would do with such gains.

The US will ultimately maintain its desire for freedom of navigation through there...but China will have a vastly improved position at the same time.
 
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delft

Brigadier
Just so. And because China has even more interest in freedom of navigation the utterances of admiral Harris should be considered irrelevant except within US politics. They should give no hope to a bright Philippine politician.
 

joshuatree

Captain
I don't see why China would "stop" freedom of navigation in SCS. I think China as much as the US and other nations want to maintain freedom of navigation in SCS.

But China wants to have something there in SCS as an insurance policy of being cut off by others

Well let's clarify the issue, FON in the sense of commercial shipping has never been a problem. The US sees FON as including free range outside of territorial waters on military surveillance while China for now, does not. This is another UNCLOS ambiguity and the source of contention.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I the end...I believe the US will continue with its FON as it sees it...and China will continue with its reclamation and development as it desires.

Short of trying to militarily stop one another, there is really not a lot either side can do about it.

I do not believe either side is going to start shooting to force its interpretation of either of those issues on the other.
 
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