PLAN Catapult Development Thread, News, etc.

[Blitzo]

I was under the impression that the entire reason we give these guys' statements more weight is that they have specific insider knowledge, not that they can somehow predict something better than we can. Either you know it's going to be 68-70,000 tons, or you don't know and you're just guessing. Either you know it's going to be steam cat over EM cat, or you don't know and you're just guessing. In which case why do their guesses get more authority? I don't get it.

In some cases they have explicit insider knowledge for specifics (like class names, in case of 055 designation, or for propulsion type such as 002 being conventional) or things which will occur (such as when construction will start, in the case of predicting 001A construction time).

And in other cases they have to make certain educated guesses based on their own limited insider knowledge, e.g.: such as the specific catapult type that 002 will use.

As for why we consider them to have more authority than just any random person on the internet, it's often because they've built up a reputation and history for making predictions and educated guesses which turn out to be true.



edit: one reason PLA watching is so hard is that literally every single rumour or sentence from big shrimps have to be broken down and put into a category of "likelihood" and to put it in context of pre-existing definitive knowledge or principles... there often are no simple "yes, this ship/aircraft/whatever is definitely happening and this is the definitive general specifications of it" early on in the rumour cycle; often we only know that information far far later before the first photos of the product is released online, and sometimes we don't even get certain specifications at that point!


edit 2: in this specific case regarding 002's displacement, pop3 has a record of listing ships' displacement as standard displacement, so if he's saying it will displace 68k-70k tons then he's saying that is what he expects the standard displacement to be.

 

[Jeff Head]

I was under the impression that the entire reason we give these guys' statements more weight is that they have specific insider knowledge, not that they can somehow predict something better than we can. Either you know it's going to be 68-70,000 tons, or you don't know and you're just guessing. Either you know it's going to be steam cat over EM cat, or you don't know and you're just guessing. In which case why do their guesses get more authority? I don't get it.

I have found over the years that it can be perplexing.

Each of us has to look at the history we have had with these various individuals and then gauge our own feeling of the credibility ourselves.

Typically fzgfzy ad pop3 have had pretty good records.

 

[superdog]

I was under the impression that the entire reason we give these guys' statements more weight is that they have specific insider knowledge, not that they can somehow predict something better than we can. Either you know it's going to be 68-70,000 tons, or you don't know and you're just guessing. Either you know it's going to be steam cat over EM cat, or you don't know and you're just guessing. In which case why do their guesses get more authority? I don't get it.

They may have indirect insider knowledge such as that the turbines will be 5x,xxx hp, they'll still have to guesstimate the rest of the specs but their guess could be a little bit more accurate then people who don't have those extra information.

 

[Engineer]

Oh I'm sure that there are arguments for and against each option... what I'm interested in is whether a decision has already been made regarding the catapults for 002, or if it hasn't, and how that relates to the catapult competition at Huangdicun.

i.e.: when pop3 says he thinks they're going to go with steam, is that based on insider knowledge that a decision has been made or is that based on his own assessment of the probabilities (but that an official decision has yet to be made)? Rhetorical question of course.

My feeling is that the industry supports steam catapults while the navy favours EMALS. Now, both sides are in a deadlock.

fzgfzy has connections to people within the industry. I view his words as a reflection of the attitude of the industry rather than a reflection of the actual state of affair. This same view applies to other big shrimps. Over the years, the assertions made by supporters of steam catapults can be summarized as:

1. Steam catapult project started earlier, so should naturally be more readied.
2. Things have been set in stone. We cannot and have no time to change anything.
3. China urgently needs carriers, but not urgent enough to put in another STOBAR carrier.

Through the state media, the navy has been quite vocal in supporting Admiral Ma and his team. That in itself is quite significant already, but there is also the competition which essentially allows the navy to counter the above assertions point-to-point:

1. The data shows EMALS is close to/same/better than steam catapult.
2. Things can be changed, and the competition has given plenty of time for adjustments to be made. The industry just isn't making the effort.
3. China urgently needs carriers, but not urgent enough to go for steam catapults.

The issue associated with steam catapult vs. EMALS isn't a technical one, but a political one.

 

[dingyibvs]

My feeling is that the industry supports steam catapults while the navy favours EMALS. Now, both sides are in a deadlock.

fzgfzy has connections to people within the industry. I view his words as a reflection of the attitude of the industry rather than a reflection of the actual state of affair. This same view applies to other big shrimps. Over the years, the assertions made by supporters of steam catapults can be summarized as:

1. Steam catapult project started earlier, so should naturally be more readied.
2. Things have been set in stone. We cannot and have no time to change anything.
3. China urgently needs carriers, but not urgent enough to put in another STOBAR carrier.

Through the state media, the navy has been quite vocal in supporting Admiral Ma and his team. That in itself is quite significant already, but there is also the competition which essentially allows the navy to counter the above assertions point-to-point:

1. The data shows EMALS is close to/same/better than steam catapult.
2. Things can be changed, and the competition has given plenty of time for adjustments to be made. The industry just isn't making the effort.
3. China urgently needs carriers, but not urgent enough to go for steam catapults.

The issue associated with steam catapult vs. EMALS isn't a technical one, but a political one.

I think it'll be a steam catapult, and the decision was a technical one. Keep in mind that if 002 is to start construction within a year, then its design must've been frozen a few years ago. Back then, EMALS was nowhere near ready, and it was probably a technical decision to go with steam. What you said all hold true today, but I think that'll come into play on 002A, which I surmise will use EMALS. Small but quick steps is a tried and true strategy employed by the PLAN, and I think they'll follow that with its carrier program.

 

[taxiya]

I think it'll be a steam catapult, and the decision was a technical one. Keep in mind that if 002 is to start construction within a year, then its design must've been frozen a few years ago. Back then, EMALS was nowhere near ready, and it was probably a technical decision to go with steam. What you said all hold true today, but I think that'll come into play on 002A, which I surmise will use EMALS. Small but quick steps is a tried and true strategy employed by the PLAN, and I think they'll follow that with its carrier program.

The trouble with that approach 002->002A is the logistic cost in the whole life-span of the only one 002, that is 40 years something. And it is the Navy to pay for it, who prefer something else.

The faulty argument of steam camp (if that is the industry) is that they forget who is the pay master. A supplier can never dictate what is the best for the customer even if the customer is "wrong" in the supplier's view. When the "industry" begin to talk about the urgency/non-urgency of PLAN's carrier acquisition and building priority, they are overstepping. That is one argument I don't see valid from that camp, I even wonder they will be rebuffed straight to their face by the admirals in the way like "who do you think you are?" but more diplomatically.

The steam camp can only follow the direction by saying "we have the steam ready for you" when they see the Navy desperately wanting a CATOBAR carrier. But that is only a secondary argument, not a primary one. It is only working when the Navy is undetermined of which one to choose. When the Navy says clearly (if in reality) "I want EMALS", everything is finished.

To summarize my thought, I am skeptical to the whole thing about "industry vs. Navy debate" to the point of disbelief. I am inclined to that the Navy is still not determined 100% on which due to the supposed change (delay) to design of 002.

 

[taxiya]

There is a second construction at Wuhan site.

 

[B.I.B.]

There is a second construction at Wuhan site.

Third carrier laid down?

 

[taxiya]

Third carrier laid down?

I don't think one need to build another test track for every new carrier.
It could be some newer variant of catapult.

 

[B.I.B.]

I don't think one need to build another test track for every new carrier.
It could be some newer variant of catapult.

Me bad your mentioning of 002 confused me. (I have to stop doing this multitasking stuff)