PLAN Catapult Development Thread, News, etc.

Discussion in 'Navy' started by antiterror13, Dec 24, 2011.

  1. antiterror13
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    antiterror13 Colonel

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    the best China has is 28nm technology
     
  2. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    None of these things mentioned are particularly difficult are they? It's only a matter of investing funds and giving time to trial. They have the tools and people to do it. Along with the research labs, universities, infrastructure. All that is required is time and money. Both of which China has in relative abundance. This is the main reason for China having so much promise, few countries have the infrastructure in place for future growth and development. Semi conductor tech is not like engine tech. The latter requires much more trial and error, playing around with manufacturing and materials. Semi-conductor tech benefits much more from more commercially accessible manufacturing techniques and materials. This is the main reason why Asia was so quick to catch up and then completely dominate all areas of electronics (only other serious western nation capable of all this is USA). Electronics is much easier and barriers for progress, less difficult to overcome especially when you want to achieve certain results and have all the necessary tools to develop those results.

    I just don't think the reasons for allegedly not being able to manufacture the higher end chips is much of an issue or priority at this point. Building these supercomputers and improving research in other fields using them is a greater priority. China's got many other areas that it's far behind on and being on parity with a tiny handful of countries in an area that isn't an absolute necessity is wasteful.
     
    #312 ougoah, Nov 19, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2017
  3. Max Demian
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    Max Demian Junior Member
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    Are you kidding me? Semiconductor manufacturing tools are extremely complex products. A cutting-edge EUV system costs more than a stealth fighter. The only two countries in the world able to produce state-of-the-art litho-scanners are Netherlands and Japan. And this is just a part of the equation.

    My point was that not being able to manufacture modern litho tools is a strategic liability if your only suppliers are your potential enemies.
     
  4. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Fair enough. I'm far from an expert on litho tools. Didn't (don't) even know what they really are.... some sort of spectroscopy tool? But there's a problem with that sort of thinking.

    1. Not being able to currently manufacture something doesn't mean one can never manage. E.g. Germany don't manufacture stealth fighters. That does not mean they are incapable of this or won't in the future.

    2. Following the thinking that allowing potential enemies supply you with important tools doesn't mean you'll never have access to them. E.g. Japan was and is a resource poor nation. War efforts require massive amounts of fuel and steel. Those must also be imported from somewhere. Getting a sure and steady supply of many materials, tools etc of things one doesn't have is always going to be the case for almost every country so I still don't think being able to manufacture these tools are such a priority or threat to security even in case of war. I'm sure there are ways for Chinese to get their hands on these things somehow and that's assuming they don't already have programs to develop these.

    How important are these things in manufacturing chips? If absolutely necessary, China must already have their hands on them to make their own chips which they have been doing for years now? Either on loan or bought outright. They must already be reverse engineering them if not already done.

    As far as we know, Americans don't have quantum satellite communications so does this mean all their communications are interceptable and they are running a strategic risk in not immediately pouring massive resources in developing countermeasures or their own?

    My point is strategic liabilities are everywhere if you want to look for them. China's are not particularly pressing in comparison to many that exist. The biggest factor to consider for example is stockpile of raw materials for war. How long can certain countries fight large scale wars? Maybe for a week at best before they run out of ammunition and guided weapons? They won't have the fuel and steel to continue manufacturing after that. Wouldn't that be a bigger strategic liability? Something like litho tools (even though I'm unaware of their importance) must be a smaller priority. But I guess your point still stands. I don't think many of us here consider China to be a chip manufacturing power. Not yet at least. But improvements have been made in recent years and they are making their own chips which power some of the world's greatest supercomputers. As far as we know, quantum computing is an area China is strong in and leading in some respects so maybe they just see other areas to be more deserving of funding. It's one of the only nations that manages to have a finger in almost all areas of known technology and this has only happened in the last few decades. With an individual productivity rate (economic terms) being only small fraction of the US, given enough time (just a few decades) we can almost be certain of only greater impact in high tech fields. Including semiconductors.

    https://www.trade.gov/topmarkets/pdf/Semiconductors_Semiconductor_Manufacturing_Equipment.pdf

    Above article mentions; "U.S. companies are also leaders in most semiconductor manufacturing equipment subsectors, except lithography – where Dutch and Japanese manufacturers are the leading global suppliers". Is there a reason why this is? No idea about this tech or industry but seems to me like maybe there's a chance that this isn't a priority otherwise why wouldn't the US also be a leader given their dominance in semiconductors? It may not make economic sense to try and compete with established masters but if there exist some strategic imperative, I'm sure we'd see US be a major player too. Rest of semiconductor manufacturing equipment shows China being a serious player as well so it adds to the point that there must be some reason for these large powers to not be big players in this particular field i.e. a chance this isn't super duper important in the context of wartime embargoes etc. Just me speculating that's all.
     
    #314 ougoah, Nov 19, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2017
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  5. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Better than years ago with um technology. The important thing to notice is progress and trend.
     
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  6. Figaro
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    Figaro Junior Member
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    Not sure how reliable Minne Chan is but SCMP's most recent EM article ... the bit of how a steam catapult could not launch J-15s seems highly dubious o_O
    EDIT : It appears that SCMP has also completely forgotten about the navalized J-20 vs FC-31 competition. The "next two decades" quote at the end also sounds very amateurish ... nonetheless, there's still some interesting content.
     
    #316 Figaro, Nov 20, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2017
  7. delft
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    delft Brigadier

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    Minnie is quite unreliable.
     
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  8. Iron Man
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    Iron Man Captain
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    Minnie Chan is essentially a tabloid journalist, and SCMP is like the National Enquirer of Chinese military news.
     
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  9. N00813
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    N00813 Junior Member
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    So if the new C13-2 steam catapult would "struggle" with a 33-ton J-15, how come the US Navy did OK with the 34-ton F-14 with an older (and presumably lower-power) steam catapult? And the F-14 was in service for 3 decades!

    The article seems to contradict itself, lol.
     
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  10. ougoah
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    ougoah Senior Member
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    Typical bullshit articles we see from SCMP. Zero evidence for claims and zero chance of these people knowing the facts.
     
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