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dated 3 February 2017, the article is cool in a way (don't know how credible though :)
China’s 500-Ship Navy Suddenly Appears on the Horizon
The People's Liberation Army's Navy is growing fast; expect it to grow even faster.
The increasingly belligerent tone of rhetoric from Beijing and Washington since President Donald Trump’s inauguration shows no sign of improving the security situation in the Asia–Pacific.

Not only has the US attitude changed, but it is remarkable that China has, for the first time, not simply capitulated but reacted strongly – almost to the extent of calling them out.

The
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used by the Chinese Communist Party’s media is confident and strident. However, Beijing is not simply adopting this tone because of its economic strength, but because it now has a military capable of delivering radical change in the region.

Indeed, while discussion over the future performance of the Chinese economy is clouded by problems such as a smaller profit-to-output margins and a massive debt overhang, China’s military future is clearer. As a study by US Naval War College Professor of Strategy Andrew Erickson
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, there is more certainty over the country’s military capabilities.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (Navy) – or PLA(N) – is
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towards an ambition of 500 warships, including aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, amphibious ships and a burgeoning frigate and destroyer force.

Just in the past three weeks a new destroyer and new corvette have been
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and discussion over new carrier-based aircraft has been increasing. The growth in the PLA(N) force structure has been rapid: indeed it is hard to recall growth at a similar pace in any navy across history.

Against this, the US Navy – still the world’s most powerful naval force – has an aspiration of returning to a force design of around 350 units.

It is even more remarkable given that until the mid-1980s, the PLA had not considered the sea as a domain to be contested, opting instead for a strategy of coastal control, and an element of sea denial – that is, the ability to deny freedom of movement to their adversaries inside their coastline.

The change in outlook was stimulated General Liu Huaqing, who was PLA(N) Commander between August 1982 and January 1988, who had a grand design for domination of the Pacific. He first planned to take control of the first island chain (2000–2010, his timeline), the second island chain (2011–2020) and subsequently the entire Pacific (before 2050).

His definition of ‘control’ remains a moot point to many commentators, and is open to wide interpretation. The plan that General – sometimes called Admiral – Liu developed was accepted as doctrine when he became commander of the PLA(N). It was fully funded once he entered the Chinese Polituro Standing Committee in 1992.

The plan’s implementation was largely down to one of his successors, Admiral Wu Shengli. He
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in January after 11 years as Commander of the Chinese Navy, and 23 years as a military commander at the very highest level.

Under Wu, the growth of Beijing’s naval power has been phenomenal . Not only have ship, submarine and aircraft numbers increased rapidly, but so too have the breadth of operations they have been involved in, from evacuation operations in Libya to counter-piracy patrols in the Indian Ocean. The commissioning and deployment of China’s only aircraft carrier,
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, as Wu departed his military post is no coincidence.

So great has the impact of Liu and subsequently Wu been for China that there was no single man capable of replacing them. Admiral Shen Jinlong, previously commander of China’s South Sea Fleet, has
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the reins as Commander of the PLA(N), with Admiral Yuan Yubai
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to command the Southern Theatre Command from running the North Sea Fleet.

These two men face a different challenge if they are to deliver against that ambition. People win battles, not ships. Given that the PLA is an organisational system that relies on conformity of people and thinking, there needs to be a change in that mind-set. That is almost a greater challenge than building a bunch of new ships.

Having delivered Liu’s first phase and the capabilities in place to achieve phase two, the PLA(N) is now a powerful tool that makes the ruling Communist Party’s Pacific ambitions a realistic possibility.

Simultaneous development of floating nuclear power stations, permanent military bases in the South China Sea and the full
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of the BeiDou satellite navigation system are starting to provide Beijing with a competitive edge in the China Seas.

‘Quantity has a quality all of its own’ – attributed, variously, to Stalin, Trotsky and Mao among others – and against a more professional, but smaller US Navy spread across two oceans, Beijing is slowly pulling ahead.
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bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
That number of ships, 500, must have been sucked out of someone's thumb.

Or someones..... well you know.

Actually it depends on how the ships are counted. If any navy counts all combatants small craft, auxillaries etc...well then they could come up with 500 ships.

As of this day the USN has 274 combatant ships. This does NOT include LCACs, landing craft, reserve ships and all sorts small craft. Or ships, including replenishment ships, assigned to the Military Sealift Command.
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has approximately 120 ships stationed around the World.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
I've always believed PLAN's ambition is not global dominance but west PAC and it aligns with the good admiral's island chain strategy.

They don't need to match USN. All they are wanting for now is to reach parity with 7th fleet in the next decade or so etc and then slowly surpass it and next goal would then be US 7th + JMSDF which they are trying to get to by mid century.

My personal observation is I believe you will see accelerated naval building programs etc in the coming years especially if the relationship with Beijing becomes more adversarial in nature instead of the other way around.

Personally I didn't expect that. I thought a Trump presidency would actually improve ties with China but so far the new admin's rhetorics has soured the relationship. We'll see what happens in the next couple years but the tone set thus fas has not been very encouraging albeit it's still very early.
 

vesicles

Colonel
I've always believed PLAN's ambition is not global dominance but west PAC and it aligns with the good admiral's island chain strategy.

They don't need to match USN. All they are wanting for now is to reach parity with 7th fleet in the next decade or so etc and then slowly surpass it and next goal would then be US 7th + JMSDF which they are trying to get to by mid century.

My personal observation is I believe you will see accelerated naval building programs etc in the coming years especially if the relationship with Beijing becomes more adversarial in nature instead of the other way around.

Personally I didn't expect that. I thought a Trump presidency would actually improve ties with China but so far the new admin's rhetorics has soured the relationship. We'll see what happens in the next couple years but the tone set thus fas has not been very encouraging albeit it's still very early.

At this point, I have little clue as to what the POTUS intends to do with China. However, IMHO, his rhetoric may not be a good indication. Although he has been tough on China, one of the first foreign nationals he met after being elected was Jack Ma. And he specifically mentioned Jack Ma in his first briefing. So I don't think he plans to actually be aggressive with China.

My own opinion is that China may be a major factor in his plan to revive US economy. He is now attempting to set the mood to gain a better footing at the negotiation table. It's a typical bargaining strategy. You first let your opponent believe that you don't care about them and their offering means squad to you. And their products are all POS. Then you sit down with them and negotiate to get the best deal possible. I think he is setting up his negotiation with China.

Of course this is my best case scenario and my own best wish. Let's hope this is the case...
 

Lethe

Captain
Personally I expect that China's naval strength will develop into rough parity with USN, albeit with different force structure that includes conventional submarines as well as nuclear ones, more small and medium-sized ships and fewer large ones, and fewer aircraft carriers.

This parity will not emerge out of any kind of dick-measuring contest with the US or desire to emulate its current (self-assigned) role in the world, but rather out of the strategic logic arising from China's circumstances: China will seek the ability to secure its sea lanes to protect its trade and therefore national prosperity, and this in turn requires the ability to neutralise the bulk of US forces plus those of other regional powers, and this can be rendered as roughly equivalent to neutralising the entire USN and requiring parity with that force -- parity that the future Chinese state will be able to afford and achieve. Indeed, I can envision a future where PLAN is as powerful as USN, and Chinese planners are still fretful about their ability to manage the tasks assigned to them, just as US planners are fretful today.

I thought a Trump presidency would actually improve ties with China but so far the new admin's rhetorics has soured the relationship. We'll see what happens in the next couple years but the tone set thus fas has not been very encouraging albeit it's still very early.

Well, he certainly talks about China often enough:

 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Personally I didn't expect that. I thought a Trump presidency would actually improve ties with China but so far the new admin's rhetorics has soured the relationship. We'll see what happens in the next couple years but the tone set thus fas has not been very encouraging albeit it's still very early.
Given the 'get tough with China' rhetoric from Trump, and his close circle of advisors like Peter Navarro, Stephen Miller, Rex Tillerson, Wilbur Ross, and Robert Lighthizer, whatever made you think US-China relations would improve under Trump's administration?
 
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