PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

gents long way to go still. we have to see at least a angled deck before we can really and truely call it the PLAN's first indigenous carrier. At this point there is subjective evedence yes but a long way to go. besides that could still be a LHD

TerraN_EmpirE said:

gents long way to go still. we have to see at least a angled deck before we can really and truely call it the PLAN's first indigenous carrier. At this point there is subjective evedence yes but a long way to go. besides that could still be a LHD

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Really?

Do the years and months of accumulated credible rumours which predicted everything we've seen so far not have any credibility with you?

That said, I can appreciate if you want to wait for more evidence, but I think at this point waiting for more evidence is really just a formality.

The thing about PLA watching is that we are not only operating based on physical evidence/photos, but also directed by aggregated rumours and tips from insiders. Take those together, apply logic, and we should get an output and a conclusion.

Bltizo said:

Really?

Do the years and months of accumulated credible rumours which predicted everything we've seen so far not have any credibility with you?

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Oh Blitz,
Credible Rumor? Is there such a thing? There is Rumor and there is FACT. Fact can be proven Rumor is here say.

Bltizo said:

That said, I can appreciate if you want to wait for more evidence, but I think at this point waiting for more evidence is really just a formality.

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"It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment."
Sherlock Holmes – A Scandal in Bohemia

Bltizo said:

The thing about PLA watching is that we are not only operating based on physical evidence/photos, but also directed by aggregated rumours and tips from insiders. Take those together, apply logic, and we should get an output and a conclusion.

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If you wish to discuss Logic vs Evidence and use Rumor. Then Blitz We may as well base our assumptions on the National Enquirer.
We need Evidence on Which to base a Logical Deduction. We have I believe merely Eliminated one possibility that of a Commercial vessel We have not arrived at the point of eliminating all other possibilities to jump to Carrier at this point is more a act of faith and wishful thinking then reason.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Oh Blitz,
Credible Rumor? Is there such a thing? There is Rumor and there is FACT. Fact can be proven Rumor is here say.

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PLA watching inherently relies on so-called "hearsay".
So yes, credible rumours do exist, and it is the job of us to differentiate among them.

"It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment."

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Sherlock Holmes – A Scandal in Bohemia

If you wish to discuss Logic vs Evidence and use Rumor. Then Blitz We may as well base our assumptions on the National Enquirer.
We need Evidence on Which to base a Logical Deduction. We have I believe merely Eliminated one possibility that of a Commercial vessel We have not arrived at the point of eliminating all other possibilities to jump to Carrier at this point is more a act of faith and wishful thinking then reason.

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The problem is that you do not consider reliable rumours to constitute evidence. Time and time again, the Chinese military watching community has been able to critically examine rumours, using logic to sort the credible from the less credible and to use them as the basis for forming the larger picture to reach a conclusion or a consensus.

If I had to address your quote, then yes indeed, ignoring rumours to reach a conclusion would indeed be a capital mistake for PLA watching, because you are ignoring the additional evidence that credible rumours present.

Tell me, did you believe J-20 (or rather J-XX) existed before it first flew on 11/1/11?

Blitz, I am asking you to keep your options open above all. in the case of the Jxx It was possible until proven otherwise.
I am saying don't jump the gun.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Blitz, I am asking you to keep your options open above all. in the case of the Jxx It was possible until proven otherwise.

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Actually, in the case of J-XX, credible rumours had been building for years and the confidence of those rumours grew as it edged closer and closer to the first flight to the point that we knew a substantial amount of information about J-20 before the first pictures came out.
We were five steps ahead of everyone else, because of an ability to critically assess and disseminate rumours.

I am saying don't jump the gun.

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You know, technically speaking it is still possible for the hull we see to be an LHD and for it to not be a carrier. It is also equally possible for the hull we see to not be a carrier but rather part of China's new star destroyer.
In other words, they're all technically still possible until we have final photos to 100% irrefutably prove that this thing is a carrier. But their possibilities are also equally, almost infinitesimally low.
This is because -- again -- of rumours.
We have had a consistent stream of credible rumours growing in specificity and confidence from reliable individuals from the Chinese boards which corroborated with what we are seeing at Dalian.
More importantly, it is also well established that before naval ships of such major types are built in China, we would also get rumours predicting their construction and also the shipyard they would be built at. On top of the rumours of the hull at DL being a carrier, we also have had no such rumours about an LHA or LHD being built at DL, just like how we've had no rumours about DL building a star destroyer either. But sure, technically speaking there's still a "chance" that it might be an LHA or LHD or a star destroyer, until we see the full flight deck and island there.

So technically speaking, yes we cannot be 100% sure that the hull at DL is a carrier, because despite the pictures and the consistent rumours we've gotten, we can only be 99% sure the hull at DL is a carrier, and that 1% of doubt still exists until everything is sealed and done.
But we are all practical folks here, I believe, and that 1% of doubt should be nothing more than a formality.

So by all means, we shouldn't jump the gun, but we also avoid missing the forest for the trees.

Okay, with this latest picture, I am going to go ahead and call I from my perspective and confirm this as a PLAN carrier..



With the hanger section sitting on top of the hull, and when I compare the thickness of the supporting section, particularly on the starboard side, with pictures we have of the Liaoning and the Kuznetsov, it is clear that this is indeed the 1st indigenous PLAN aircraft carrier.



I have some US naval analysts who think that structure is still too thick in relation to the width of the hanger and the vessel, and indeed for a US carrier...it would be.





But the US carrier hanger comes out much closer to the actual side of the ship, whereas the Chinese (and Russian) carrier has additional structure. So, it is correct for the what we would expect to see structurally for a carrier built to that general hull form.



These STOBAR carriers have a more narrow overall hanger when compared to US vessels...but that is the way they are built and this one is being built in the same manner.



So, although I have felt fro some time that it probably is the carrier...with them having placed this section on the vessel it has made it clear to me that it in fact is.

I would still like to see the stern...but I know what I am going to see there now in any case.

Question................do members here think that by looking at the construction, of this vessel now, that this is more than likely to be an aircraft carrier, rather than a helicopter carrier?

steve_rolfe said:

Question................do members here think that by looking at the construction, of this vessel now, that this is more than likely to be an aircraft carrier, rather than a helicopter carrier?

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Yes, because of the hull shape and large engine rooms.

Wow wow wow just wow !!

This is a very very fast pace

Launch by year end lol

I am now very excited to see this progress it's Liaoning all over again

Type 055 and a carrier can it get better ?