PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

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Blitzo

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Unless the PRC confirms it, or over the next months it becomes more obvious...it is still up in the air from my perspective.

I doubt the govt or PLAN will officially confirm "yes the thing you're seeing at DL's drydock is our first indigenous carrier". But they have already confirmed they're working on their first indigenous carrier which is probably all we'll get for the next few years in terms of official announcements.

Personally I think it is just a matter of time to wait for more pictures of the drydock for confirmation. The rumours which we've known for the last year or two is that DL is building the first indigenous carrier and we had news of module fabrication a while ago too, so these pictures are lending evidence to the suspicions more than anything.

I doubt it is a LHD (DL was never going to build LHDs, that's probably the job for HDZH), so unless we're misidentifying some other large non military ship and misidentifying the drydock location, and/or this is all a coordinated hoax by multiple independent entities on the BBS.... I'd say the likelihood is immensely high that this is 001A.
In fact, I'd say the testimony of multiple individuals who were able to get photos and/or describe what they had seen at the drydock is probably the most helpful evidence so far.
Either way it'll probably be a matter of weeks, or a few months at most for us to put the nail in this coffin.

So to answer jkliz, I'd say it is highly likely that what we're seeing is the first indigenous carrier. PLA watching is never about the photos alone, but integrating the previous rumours together with a projected timescale and seeing if it bounces. In this case I think the time works out neatly with what we've known before.
 

Jeff Head

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they have already confirmed they're working on their first indigenous carrier ...

Personally I think it is just a matter of time to wait for more pictures of the drydock for confirmation..

I doubt it is a LHD (DL was never going to build LHDs, that's probably the job for HDZH....

I'd say the likelihood is immensely high that this is 001A.

In fact, I'd say the testimony of multiple individuals who were able to get photos and/or describe what they had seen at the drydock is probably the most helpful evidence so far.

Either way it'll probably be a matter of weeks, or a few months at most for us to put the nail in this coffin.

So to answer jkliz, I'd say it is highly likely that what we're seeing is the first indigenous carrier.
Well, he asked for a confirmation and, like I said, I will wait a little longer before I go that far.

Otherwise, I believe in essence I agreed with what you said. Likely....but not quite confirmed yet.
 

Blitzo

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Well, he asked for a confirmation and, like I said, I will wait a little longer before I go that far.

Otherwise, I believe in essence I agreed with what you said. Likely....but not quite confirmed yet.

Yeah, I suppose what I was indirectly getting at is that "confirmation" in PLA watching isn't really worth that much, because if we're 95% sure something is happening based on limited evidence, logic and rumours, we may often not get that extra 5% for a long time or even ever to achieve true undisputed confirmation
 

Jeff Head

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we may often not get that extra 5% for a long time or even ever to achieve true undisputed confirmation
Hehehe...in this case, I believe we will be able to get to the undisputed confirmation.

Either that will turn out to be a carrier (probable) in that dry dock or it wont. LOL!

144748o0y20ww0ay2w0yj0.jpg
 

steve_rolfe

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Hehehe...in this case, I believe we will be able to get to the undisputed confirmation.

Either that will turn out to be a carrier (probable) in that dry dock or it wont. LOL!

View attachment 13280

Well..........someone at another forum has made a photo comparison of the build status of the Chinese vessel in photo, against a 'Ford' class carrier at a similar build point, and the similarities point to this being more than likely a carrier.......anyway time will tell!
 

Intrepid

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Well..........someone at another forum has made a photo comparison of the build status of the Chinese vessel in photo, against a 'Ford' class carrier at a similar build point, and the similarities point to this being more than likely a carrier.......anyway time will tell!
That comparison was not a good idea, because the "Ford" has to reactors what the first Chinese carriers hasn't.
 

Deino

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Well..........someone at another forum has made a photo comparison of the build status of the Chinese vessel in photo, against a 'Ford' class carrier at a similar build point, and the similarities point to this being more than likely a carrier.......anyway time will tell!


Yes ... this one !

PLN CV-001A under construction vs. USS Ford class.jpg
 

Totoro

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Am i remembering wrong or was it said that 001a design would be larger than 001? By a few thousand tons?

I wonder if we'll see some noticable differences on the deck, etc. If they wanted to, they could certainly implement quite a few changes. As it is, Liaoning is 60.000+ tons design. Not optimized for maximum plane carriage, but if one wanted to, the successor could be, even if it wasn't enlarged.

bJahH1Al.png


Modifications shown in the image above would constitute a big change, though still not anything to the scale Midway class went through - and that was for existing ships being retroffited, not one built to new spec from scratch.

Inner decks would have to be remodelled quite a bit, but one would expect less sailors needed, less crewspace needed, etc. That small addition to the hangar seems quite doable to me. Weapons hangar and elevators would need quite a bit of remodelling, especially the new waist one, which would basically be a visible protrustion on the side of the ship, and probably would have to feature horizontal transport as well as vertical one.

Island is unchanged, hangar width is unchanged, most of the deck is unchanged.
Elevators are made slightly wider, to accept two j15 at once. It'd also require stronger motors and construction but that seems doable. Other than that, deck has a few additions here and there to make it larger (mostly by stealing space from VLS in the corners) and the runway is a bit longer if one wants to install a catapult (purple line). If no catapult, runway could remain the same length.

All that would require a stronger construction for all those deck overhangs but if true the design would be a few thousand tons larger even that seems realistic.

In the end, the hangar could easely accept 17-18 j15 and 8-9 helicopters with plenty of space left for handing those planes below. And with another 12 or so j15 parked on the deck without any interference to any deck ops - so realistically 14-16 planes on the deck with most routes over the deck being still free.

three squadrons of 10 j15 would be a minimum for such a design, quite possibly 32. (one squadron being 12 planes). Since USN has a history of operating squadrons of 10, 12 or even 14 planes on their carriers, it shouldn't be a problem to use squadrons of different size.
 
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