PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

Discussion in 'Navy' started by bd popeye, Jul 6, 2013.

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  1. rhino123
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    rhino123 Pencil Pusher
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    Not sure about military term regarding the "Tech Freeze Up", but in the industry that I am working in, there is such a thing like a tech freeze up or design close time. It is where design had finalized, money for the product had been allocated, and thus there will be minimal or no changes will be made to the product, but that is normally just before mass production of the product. I believe that should not be the case for military products though.

    I think even when 002 design had passed the supposedly tech freeze up time, if the Chinese find that the technology is already way behind time, then they will redesign the whole thing. But of course it will also be closely related to the timeframe the Chinese wanted their carrier to be produce. Because redesigning of a product takes time (lots of time) and so if the Chinese already had their design ready and they wanted to scrape that design, then the timeline will be pushed back further.

    That might also be the case that J-10 take 18 years to design and developed...
     
  2. Bltizo
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    Bltizo Moderator
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    Okay, I just want to make sure that points 2 and 3 of your last post were your own opinion/deduction and not claims made by any big shrimps.
     
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  3. FORBIN
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    FORBIN Lieutenant General
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    Yes but easy to say... when we see the difficulties for US EMALS ! we can have some doubts for China who starts from zero, maybe get some plans for Ulyanovsk ? a steam cat seems really more realistic but it is one the most difficult system to build only USA do it from many decades.

    And also China have no experience for Air Naval operations especialy tactics.This can not be bought
    it is a knowledge, experience, sailors and only 2 Navies mastery entirely that USN and French Navy.

    Ask to Popeye ;) the specialist he teach you for it :D
     
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  4. Intrepid
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    Intrepid Senior Member

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    China starts from zero - with steam cat and with EMALS. The difficulties to develop either cat should be equal for China. And I am quite shure, Chinese intellegent services know from every mistake the US did with EMALS. And Chinese people will avoid this mistakes, because they take their time to wait until US have tested it.

    In the United States not always the better solution makes it to operational service. Sometimes it is more a question of which company has more supporters in politics. And that is the moment in which the Chinese overtake their opponents.
     
  5. danielchin
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    danielchin Junior Member

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    8:00pm (Aug. 4, 2016)

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Thanks for the photo. It is a milestone. Amazingly fast it take 2 years to finish the hull, For the rest of the year, they will finish the island and completed the hull.
    Another 2 years for fitting in and another years for shipyard trial, testing. So look for 2019 for commissioning.
     
    #6156 Hendrik_2000, Aug 4, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2016
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  7. weig2000
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    weig2000 Junior Member

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    The rating of the probabilities of each of the above - not to be precise, but more indicative.

    1. 25%
    It's difficult to believe the decision has not been made, given the importance and magnitude of the program, how many suppliers are involved and how long the time has elapsed since 001A was approved (2009), and there had no technology barriers for a conventional CATOBAR carrier.

    It's possible though that the unexpected fast progress made in EMALS might have reopen the possibility of revisiting the decision and potentially incorporate EMALS into 001A. The tradeoff would be several years delay of 002's commission date.

    I'm leaning toward the leadership will go ahead with the original plan and roughly the schedule after internal debates and the recent development in China's security environment.

    2. 50%
    2 is related to 1, obviously. Assuming the decision is go forward with the original plan and schedule (75%), then there is more than 50% of the chance that it is under construction now, although the exact definition of "under construction" is unclear? Do it mean the some of the modules have arrived at JNCX?

    3. 10%
    I wanted to give it a 0%, but since we don't really have any official or authoritative information, I consider it a low probability event. It doesn't make sense, and it's counter-intuitive.

    If the debates around 002 is mostly due to the relative backwardness of steam catapult, then why go for another even less effective STOBAR? If the 001A itself wasn't in the original plan to begin with and was only an addition later on for a backup to 002 and earlier availability, it appears to me illogical to build yet another when everything for 002 is in place. For what?

    Chinese leadership is not fanboy; the nation's carrier program is strategic and long-term and involves a lot of people and a large ecosystem. It shouldn't be changed drastically just because some quicker progress or setbacks. The debate about 002, in the end, comes down to early availability of capabilities, both equipment and personnel, vs some additional cost. The progress of China's carrier program, as it is, is faster than almost everyone expected only a few years ago. The best strategy is stick with the original plan and make sure it goes smoothly.

    As I projected in this thread before, I believe China's carrier program will largely follow the progress below.

    001A, conventional STOBAR, launch later 2016 or early 2017, commission in 2019
    002, conventional CATOBAR, launch in 2019, commission in 2022/2023
    002A, conventional CATOBAR, commission around 2025
    003, nuclear CATOBAR with EMALS, commission around 2029
    003A, nuclear CATOBAR with EMALS, commission between 2030/2035

    Can anyone really complain if China accomplishes the above program according to plan and schedule?

    I don't think China has any plan beyond 003/003A, but it would be difficult to believe they would stop there.
     
  8. asif iqbal
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    asif iqbal Brigadier

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    Ok the island is next
     
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  9. FORBIN
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    FORBIN Lieutenant General
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    What name possible, province as Liaonning, big personnality ?
     
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  10. Blackstone
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    Blackstone Brigadier

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    Qinghai sounds good to me, it's a landlocked province, but has the word "hai" (sea) in it.
     
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