heated debates about what catalyst system the 002 should use are spreading from tv to forums. at the center is rear adm Yin, who strongly supports the EM over the steam. according to Yin: all the tech issues in EM have been solved, there's no reason to adopt the obsolete steam system.
I'm not a big shrimp, but I think we can draw a few things from the debate:
1. the decision has not been made, otherwise the debate is pointless;
2. 002 is not under construction at the moment;
3. China may build one more STOBAR after cv17 to fill the gap.
The rating of the probabilities of each of the above - not to be precise, but more indicative.
1. 25%
It's difficult to believe the decision has not been made, given the importance and magnitude of the program, how many suppliers are involved and how long the time has elapsed since 001A was approved (2009), and there had no technology barriers for a conventional CATOBAR carrier.
It's possible though that the unexpected fast progress made in EMALS might have reopen the possibility of revisiting the decision and potentially incorporate EMALS into 001A. The tradeoff would be several years delay of 002's commission date.
I'm leaning toward the leadership will go ahead with the original plan and roughly the schedule after internal debates and the recent development in China's security environment.
2. 50%
2 is related to 1, obviously. Assuming the decision is go forward with the original plan and schedule (75%), then there is more than 50% of the chance that it is under construction now, although the exact definition of "under construction" is unclear? Do it mean the some of the modules have arrived at JNCX?
3. 10%
I wanted to give it a 0%, but since we don't really have any official or authoritative information, I consider it a low probability event. It doesn't make sense, and it's counter-intuitive.
If the debates around 002 is mostly due to the relative backwardness of steam catapult, then why go for another even less effective STOBAR? If the 001A itself wasn't in the original plan to begin with and was only an addition later on for a backup to 002 and earlier availability, it appears to me illogical to build yet another when everything for 002 is in place. For what?
Chinese leadership is not fanboy; the nation's carrier program is strategic and long-term and involves a lot of people and a large ecosystem. It shouldn't be changed drastically just because some quicker progress or setbacks. The debate about 002, in the end, comes down to early availability of capabilities, both equipment and personnel, vs some additional cost. The progress of China's carrier program, as it is, is faster than almost everyone expected only a few years ago. The best strategy is stick with the original plan and make sure it goes smoothly.
As I projected in this thread before, I believe China's carrier program will largely follow the progress below.
001A, conventional STOBAR, launch later 2016 or early 2017, commission in 2019
002, conventional CATOBAR, launch in 2019, commission in 2022/2023
002A, conventional CATOBAR, commission around 2025
003, nuclear CATOBAR with EMALS, commission around 2029
003A, nuclear CATOBAR with EMALS, commission between 2030/2035
Can anyone really complain if China accomplishes the above program according to plan and schedule?
I don't think China has any plan beyond 003/003A, but it would be difficult to believe they would stop there.
the specialist he teach you for it 
