PLAN 2018 Review (Jeff Head)

Discussion in 'Navy' started by Jeff Head, Mar 8, 2018.

  1. Iron Man
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    Iron Man Captain
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    Not sure what you are implying by "fought for their lives", as this seems to indicate that you think China would somehow attack the US and/or Japan and therefore somehow the US and Japan would be legitimized and justified in fighting China. Nothing could be further from reality here, and here I detect also a distinct whiff of the age-old Yellow Peril through which Westerners typically view China and its rise. There is no realistic scenario out there in which China initiates military hostilities against either the US or Japan, whether over Diaoyutai or SCS or whatever other scenario. Let's be honest here: the only real threat is from the US against China, such as may happen if China militarily reunites Taiwan and the mainland (which I personally think will probably occur at some point in the not too far distant future). It is important to note that in this case, neither Japan nor the US would be attacked, and certainly neither would be "fighting for their lives". This would be a military conflict of the US's own making, and initiated by the US, and followed along solely by its lackey Japan. SK would almost certainly sit this one out, and Australia would have the perfect cover to not get involved.

    If you willingly throw yourself and your friend into the lion's den when the lions are fighting, who is going to pity you when you get mauled?
     
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  2. PikeCowboy
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    PikeCowboy New Member

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    also it's ignored that SK has got the most to lose in a hot conflict being connected to China by land... easy to talk about being a good ally when both US, Japan, and Australia are all sitting an ocean away.

    well maybe not Japan, but I suspect that SK is quite willing to tolerate Japan taking a hit.
     
  3. Untoldpain
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    Untoldpain New Member
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    If a land war erupts on the Korean peninsula, SK will no doubt be fighting alongside the US. However, I find it rather unlikely that SK would join US and Japan in the event of a maritime conflict with China. In the two most likely flash points of Taiwan Strait and SCS, SK simply has not shown any willingness to be involved in a wider coalition against Chinese assertiveness/aggression. It has shown little interest in balancing against China in the maritime domain, and has planned no FONOP or be considered as a potential member of the "QUAD". Like iron man says, all these maritime issues are on the edge of SK's geopolitical interest, and it has much to lose and little to gain with an all out war with China.
     
  4. Janiz
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    Janiz Junior Member

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    Which makes them even more vulnerable to loosing any kind of freedom (becoming a province of China) if US had lost the eventual war. They have to fight against China or China will eat them alive like it did so many times in the history. Because if China had won such a war against US SK would loose the American troops on it's soil and we all know that Korean Peninsula was China's playground for centuries. This time I bet they wouldn't take a choice like they did in 1948 and simply would take over the Peninsula for good. Many users here forget that the main reason why SK even exists today is because there were Koreans who didn't like the idea of being under Chinese shoe again. They would take US which is over the Pacific Ocean and won't take their land instead of their neghbour by the Bohai Sea every day of the year I bet!

    A war between US and China would be a 'do or die' situation - they would have to participate on one side or another. Standing on US side might cause a defeat and getting under PRC rule. Standing on PRC side would make them coming back to the centuries of being China's puppet state like they were for centuries (aside for the past 60 years) or even losing their freedom entirly in the process. Such is the life of the states standing between hostile superpowers. The only good outcome for them would be keeping the status quo or US winning the war.
     
  5. weig2000
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    weig2000 Junior Member

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    Do you the know the history between China and Korea at all? If the above is from a Japanese, it would be ironic...

    A war between US and China, highly unlikely to begin with, would be unfortunate and limited, for two countries of continent-size with almost unlimited resources and nuclear weapons. Sorry to disappoint you.
     
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  6. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    Alliances can and are broken when it is no longer in the interests of both parties. That is simply part of the historical record.

    Plus Japan/USA would NOT be fighting for their lives in a hypothetical war against China. The continental USA is safe on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, and the Japanese Home Islands are far away enough from China that Japan could mount continued resistance and couldn't be conquered with an amphibious invasion.

    Also note that South Korean politicians and the general population have a very different view of going to war with China, than the military does.

    ---

    The USA would be glad that South Korea doesn't join in a war against China.

    Because if it does, we will likely see the US Army trying to fight the entire Chinese Army on the Korean peninsula, where the US has to throw away its air-sea advantage, and engage the Chinese army at close range.

    But as you say, sometimes you have no choice.

    Suppose Fatty Kim decides to start a war against South Korea, whilst China and the USA were fighting. China would have no choice but to join that war, because the alternative is that North Korea is defeated and US troops will be poised to cross the Yalu river into Mainland China.

    And in a long war, who is more likely to win?

    ---

    In the past, remember that the USA completely outclassed both Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany in terms of population and economic/industrial heft.

    That is most certainly not the case with China, which has 4x the population and therefore the economic potential of 4x USA.

    Note that over the past 15 years, China's R&D spending grown to 2.1% of GDP. This level of R&D spending is exceptional, as it is twice as high as any other developing or middle-income country. This R&D spending level places China firmly amongst other wealthy hi-tech nations, and note Chinese R&D spending is still ramping upwards.

    With the recent trade war, we can see the US has finally come to this realisation, whilst South Korea came to this conclusion many years ago.

    But it is unlikely that China will deliberately start a war, as China knows that a wealthy hi-tech China would have so much economic/military influence that it can get what it wants without a war.
     
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  7. AndrewS
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    AndrewS Senior Member
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    Q. What is the big deal if US troops leave Korea?

    A. Fatty Kim calms down, because he knows Trump isn't going to whack him. China stops subsidising North Korea because there is no reason to do so anymore. We'll see a lot more cooperation between the Koreas and probably NK reforms. And China can live with a unified Korea. After all, we can see that China was an architect of Vietnamese reunification, and that it can live with a somewhat hostile and independent Vietnam, as long as it is neutral. Vietnam is most certainly not a puppet state.
     
  8. Jeff Head
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    Jeff Head General
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    You can detect whatever you wish...it does not make anything like it true. JUst listen to youreself...you say that if China attakced the US and Japan, that somehow (seeming to make light of it) that this would legitimmize the US and Japan defending themselves and fighting back.

    Well of course it would. But I never said China was going to attack the US and Japan...in fact I clearly stated that I prayed such an eventuality never occurs.

    So, your entire post mystifies me, and it would probably be best just to leave of such a discussion with that. We do not try and suggest, or foster, make or expresss any kind of desire or invoke such scenarios on SD. Its in the rules.

    I have been on the forum for many years and have been even handed in my dealings here for those yers as most posters would attest/. Certainly not all...for some the fact that I am a loyal American is enough to make them consider me their enemy when I am not.

    Anyhow, as I stated best to just let this discussion lay and leave it alone.
     
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  9. Jeff Head
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    Jeff Head General
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    No US vs China war discussions...and no arguements or insulting one another over the same allowed on SD.

    DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERTION
     
  10. grulle
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    grulle Just Hatched
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