Re: PLAAF new JH-XX / H-X bomber soncepts
radar stealth is just as necessary for strike platform as it is for fighter platforms. In some cases it's even more necessary. History of radar stealth suggests so - f117 (striker), b2 (bomber), f22 (fighter), f35 (equally striker and fighter)
In striker role, jh7 isn't really much worse than j16. While in some areas is does fall behind - no in flight refuelling (but china has no meaningful tanker fleet anyway and no perspective/desire to substantially increase it in the next decade or so), can't do self escorting as well as j16 (in reality no one ever does that, sends strikers on their own. there's always packages of strikers and fighter escorts. US does it, IAF does it, everyone does it that way)
jh7 aiframes are young. J16, when they start coming online in year or two, won't be replacing existing jh7. They will be replacing either j7 or q5. But franco russe says so far q5 regiments were replaced exclusively by jh7 and j7 regiments were replaced by su30. Since there were new jh7 seen at xian, its still in production. It seems most logical to assume jh7 production will go on and it will keep replacing remaining q5 regiments. At the same time, throughout this coming decade, j16 will be replacing j7 regiments (or possibly some oldest j8 regiment).
i simply don't see plaaf looking at j16 as jh7 replacement. It may see it as party taking over some of its duties, or better to phrase it - sharing some of its duties, but a proper jh7 replacement is going to have to come in a form of something else. In today's world a proper striker MUST be a plane with low radar cross section. Otherwise f35 wouldn't be the way it is. f117 wouldnt have been the way it was, etc.
strike ucavs will eventually come, for sure. in 10 or 15 years some first regiments may come online. But that's just part of the strike requirements. for real time target search and target assesment, as well as better reactions over enemy territory meaning better survivability, manned planes will still remain in action for some decades after that. unmanned option in a plane with a cockpit seems like a pretty decent idea, once one gets over a certain size treshold. It seems US will be going that route with their striker/bomber. If chinese striker is large enough, it may be worthwhile to go that route as well.
And jh7 replacemnt is definitely going to be larger than jh7. adding stealth, adding fuel to get that stealthy airframe and a big load of weapons 1500+ km away - that's going to be a pretty big plane. Perhaps some will not label it a bomber, but it will at the very least be bigger than f111/su24/su34, and perhaps by a considerable margin (50% or so).
what's the alternative? non stealthy j16 serving as main striker for another 30 or so years? Such a platform would get decimated in modern high threat enviroment. some large stealthy bomber to complement it and replace h6? Which will be expensive enough that less than 100 will probably be operational. That's really not nearly capable enough strike force for china's future air power.
