PLA Small arms

MwRYum said:

I understand your desire to find that one nugget of truth in a big bucket of fakes, just that I offer a way to quick-screen: see, once troop trial pics become available, the quailty of truth in subsequent pics will improve to the level that it'd then worth the effort and time spent on them to discern its truthfulness, plus we'd then have more valid data to be used as baseline for fact-check.

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The problem is that waiting so long and rejecting all possible evidence and waiting only for clear photos like what you're asking for is the equivalent of us rejecting the existence of J-XX/J-20 in the years before January 2011 because the threshold for evidence is too high, despite the plethora of other highly credible rumours and drawings and depictions of what the aircraft would look like.


I think our goal should be to pick up on new developments as early as possible. If that means having to use some brain power and critical thinking to differentiate real pictures from fake ones and to integrate some past knowledge into things to assess their credibility, then so be it.

Bltizo said:

The problem is that waiting so long and rejecting all possible evidence and waiting only for clear photos like what you're asking for is the equivalent of us rejecting the existence of J-XX/J-20 in the years before January 2011 because the threshold for evidence is too high, despite the plethora of other highly credible rumours and drawings and depictions of what the aircraft would look like.


I think our goal should be to pick up on new developments as early as possible. If that means having to use some brain power and critical thinking to differentiate real pictures from fake ones and to integrate some past knowledge into things to assess their credibility, then so be it.

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Can't help myself bro, I work in a law firm, habit comes with the job I think...

But at least we still acknowledge the project is an ongoing one, all we ask for is creditable evidence (photo as "hard" evidence is difficult because you'd need to prove it's not doctored, for starter) to prove it progress into a stage that we can comfortably acknowledge that it's the real deal. Sure, threshold of evidence is high but personally, that's how it should be.

MwRYum said:

Can't help myself bro, I work in a law firm, habit comes with the job I think...

But at least we still acknowledge the project is an ongoing one, all we ask for is creditable evidence (photo as "hard" evidence is difficult because you'd need to prove it's not doctored, for starter) to prove it progress into a stage that we can comfortably acknowledge that it's the real deal. Sure, threshold of evidence is high but personally, that's how it should be.

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Well each photo has an index of suspicion, and of the photos we do have I think two are very low to the point of accepting that they are most likely real, and we have another photo of a study depicting a rifle system which is consistent with those photos and what other credible rumours say about the PLA's new rifle, as well as a western firearms retailer saying their factory in China will be busy producing the PLA's new service rifle... and combine that with the CS/LR-17 family shown late last year whose configuration and key design features are similar to the above, and I think we have an overwhelmingly compelling case to say that a new PLA rifle family has been under development for a while now and is likely entering the more advanced stages of development at the present stage we are at.

I'm not sure what you mean by "comfortably acknowledge that it's the real deal," specifically I'm not sure what you mean by "real deal".


Like, in the mid to late 2000s, did you believe the J-XX was a "real deal"?

Bltizo said:

Well each photo has an index of suspicion, and of the photos we do have I think two are very low to the point of accepting that they are most likely real, and we have another photo of a study depicting a rifle system which is consistent with those photos and what other credible rumours say about the PLA's new rifle, as well as a western firearms retailer saying their factory in China will be busy producing the PLA's new service rifle... and combine that with the CS/LR-17 family shown late last year whose configuration and key design features are similar to the above, and I think we have an overwhelmingly compelling case to say that a new PLA rifle family has been under development for a while now and is likely entering the more advanced stages of development at the present stage we are at.

I'm not sure what you mean by "comfortably acknowledge that it's the real deal," specifically I'm not sure what you mean by "real deal".

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By this point of time, "real deal" means that they've progressed beyond bidding trials and at least moving onto troop trials stage. Of all said and done, I prefer terra firma, not soft sand...ok, at the very least, have multiple evidence that backing up each other.

Like, in the mid to late 2000s, did you believe the J-XX was a "real deal"?

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That, like many things, at that time we can safely discern that they're "working on something", and we know the Chinese military-industrial complex is working on something all the time, however it's still not solid evidence compare to a functional prototype / technology demonstrator to showcase it for real.

Look, by now we should agree that the two of us have very different standards, mine is stricter and if that means I'd be slower on the curve than you because of that, I can live with it just fine. Think we should draw an end to this right here right now, for we've gone very off-topic as it is.

MwRYum said:

By this point of time, "real deal" means that they've progressed beyond bidding trials and at least moving onto troop trials stage. Of all said and done, I prefer terra firma, not soft sand...ok, at the very least, have multiple evidence that backing up each other.

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Troop trials would be at the very end stage of the product development cycle. I think that your definition of "real deal" is a bit excessive considering what we're trying to assess -- i.e.: whether the PLA have a new service rifle family in the works or not.

That, like many things, at that time we can safely discern that they're "working on something", and we know the Chinese military-industrial complex is working on something all the time, however it's still not solid evidence compare to a functional prototype / technology demonstrator to showcase it for real.

Look, by now we should agree that the two of us have very different standards, mine is stricter and if that means I'd be slower on the curve than you because of that, I can live with it just fine. Think we should draw an end to this right here right now, for we've gone very off-topic as it is.

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You're of course free to have your opinion, but do be aware that I will always defend the importance of rumours+blurry pictures+circumstantial evidence in the importance of keeping up to date with PLA developments, so if you or anyone else express an opinion counter to that I will respond with my own opinion on it as a matter of principle. The day that we no longer take rumours, blurry pictures and circumstantial evidence seriously, is a day when this forum will essentially have no use. It's the ability to take that information and reach a working consensus which puts us months or even years ahead of other English language defence forums or publications/commentators/and even thinktanks

PLAAF paratroopers sporting what appears to be reflex and telescopic sights... Note the modified upper on the QBZ-95.

And what's this? The JH16-1 9mm submachine gun for law enforcement... The photo seems genuine.

by78 said:

PLAAF paratroopers sporting what appears to be reflex and telescopic sights... Note the modified upper on the QBZ-95.

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Aftermarket upper body, holosight of unknown make and model, and magnifier scope of unknown zoom with quick flip-to-side mount...holosight either has 2 different models to fit different mounting system or there's a flushed M1913 rail adaptor thus it sits flushed on the SAW?

PLA outfits ain't like the PAP, rare to see them test out aftermarket kits.

A bit late but the QBZ-95 designer stated a variety of new rifles will be shown on 2019, celebrating the 70th anniversary of the PRC. Oedosoldier suggests one of them being the new service rifle. By then it may complete its 2-3 year production run stated by TI.

Tyloe said:

A bit late but the QBZ-95 designer stated a variety of new rifles will be shown on 2019, celebrating the 70th anniversary of the PRC. Oedosoldier suggests one of them being the new service rifle. By then it may complete its 2-3 year production run stated by TI.

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Implying that not all might enter service & that they might be available for export to the West?