Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Safe & Sound

SABRE

Junior Member
Few days ago an article appeared praising Pakistan's nuclear security against the outsider threat. However, same article asserted that inside threat to Pakistan's nuclear weapons can be real threat.

Following is the response to the article by Brig (R) Naeem Salik, former Director Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs (ACDA) at the Strategic Plans Division (SPD). His response might give you some idea as to how Pakistan's nuclear security mechanism operates.

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Friday, June 12, 2009

This is in reference to your editorial of June 8 titled "Safe and sound". While I am appreciative of the broader position taken by you on the safety and security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, on which there must be no doubt, western propaganda notwithstanding; there are at least two aspects that need to be seen in the correct perspective.

Firstly, while your assertion that Pakistan has invested heavily in the security of its facilities and weapons is absolutely valid, your interpretation that the warheads are 'stored in a disassembled state in more than one location. No warhead is attached to a delivery system. No delivery system is located in the same facility as the warhead parts' is basically speculative, conjectural and conveys a state of operational unpreparedness, which would be a very dangerous situation and seriously erode the credibility of our nuclear deterrence. I have never seen any official statement, and I emphasise on 'any' official statement, depicting the status that you describe in your editorial. The best description that one comes across is the position that our weapons are not on hair trigger, contrary to the Cold War times regarding the American and Soviet nuclear weapons. Now, not being on hair trigger, does not imply scattered and disassembled weapons. Somehow the latter perception seems to have caught the imagination, and needs to be corrected. Any military would want to strike a balance between operational readiness and preventing accidental or unauthorised use.

Secondly, I agree with your concern that there can be individuals in our society who may tend to think of an agenda to find links with people within Pakistan's strategic organisations to gain nuclear knowledge, thereby creating an 'insider threat'. This must, however, be seen in consideration of Pakistan's proactive response to such possibilities. Nuclear security is a multi-dimensional and robust mechanism that covers all aspects of security, including physical security tiers, intelligence systems, counter-intelligence set-ups, technical solutions to security and more importantly the so-called Personnel Reliability Programme (PRP) that amply covers the human factor risk. All individuals within the nuclear establishment are subjected to the PRP, which commences from background checks, police records, medical records, etc and goes on to include security screening, periodic, as well as random security clearances, closely monitored access controls, two-person rule, sensitive material accounting, etc. The list is long and stringent. While one is never complacent about security systems and one must never be- we should rest assured that any potential tendency of a possible 'insider threat' would be identified at the outset and would be nipped in the bud. Finally, much seems to have been made of the so-called US assistance in this area. To the best of my information, it has been extremely modest, focused on very elementary training and mostly inconsequential -- and most certainly non-intrusive. All of the security solutions in place are home-grown and entirely indigenous.

Brigadier (r) Naeem Ahmed Salik

Islamabad
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
They say that if something unfavorable would happen to the Pakistani government there's a plan to secure those nukes. Some are suggesting that the US would be getting those nukes out of there. Is it possible that they could be going to China instead. It's right next door and more likely with a favorably Pakistan government, they would get those nukes back.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
They say that if something unfavorable would happen to the Pakistani government there's a plan to secure those nukes. Some are suggesting that the US would be getting those nukes out of there. Is it possible that they could be going to China instead. It's right next door and more likely with a favorably Pakistan government, they would get those nukes back.

I would imagine that the Pentagon and possibly the Indians have a plan in place to destroy Pakistan's nukes if it appeared they were going to fall into the wrong hands.
 

SABRE

Junior Member
No country ... and I repeat no country ... can take out those nukes. Everyone may know the source of weapons production but not where they are stored. This has been stated by the CIA chief. The Indians will definitely not temper with them

i) they too don't know the locations.

ii) any attempt on their behalf might/will result in nuclear weapons launch ... and that even without Indians finding them.

But what is important is that the perception that Pakistan is falling apart is wrong. People have united with the army in War Against Terror. Taliban are on the run in Swat and a decisive battle has been launched in tribal areas. What is important is that locals have come out with greater support.

What is even more important is that somehow Pakistan has managed to secure both the weapons and the personnel. Since the crackdown on A.Q. Khan there have been no reports of any mismanagement at any level - unlike the Americans and more recently the Indians.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Yeah, any plan that favors India, the Pakistanis aren't going with. That's why I find some of these claims the US is ready to take those nukes suspicious. Destroy them? Really, can the US be sure of destroying them? What happenes if they don't get them all? Which brings up another point. People act as if the US knows the location of the nukes... and possibly have India get a handle where they're at? Not likely.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Yeah, any plan that favors India, the Pakistanis aren't going with. That's why I find some of these claims the US is ready to take those nukes suspicious. Destroy them? Really, can the US be sure of destroying them? What happenes if they don't get them all? Which brings up another point. People act as if the US knows the location of the nukes... and possibly have India get a handle where they're at? Not likely.

I know it's not likely that the US knows where Pakistan's nukes all are, and more unlikely it would be able to destroy all them, but I was just saying some sort of "worse case scenario" plan probably exists for a situation where attempting to destroy them is the only viable option. Even though that's not very likely, the possible consequences of not having a plan are large enough that it makes sense to have one.
 

SABRE

Junior Member
I know it's not likely that the US knows where Pakistan's nukes all are, and more unlikely it would be able to destroy all them, but I was just saying some sort of "worse case scenario" plan probably exists for a situation where attempting to destroy them is the only viable option. Even though that's not very likely, the possible consequences of not having a plan are large enough that it makes sense to have one.

I see only two options i) U.S helps eliminate terrorists inside Pakistan by stabilizing Afghanistan and making sure no foreign (Uzbek, Tajik, Afghan, Chechnyan, Arab) terrorists crosses the border. Local terrorists then become easy target. ii) Help resolve India-Pakistan issues, especially the Kashmir.

In the worse case scenario (which is not likely to take place) the terrorists can't launch nuclear weapons as they too don't know the locations of the weapons and certainly don't know how to operate them. Weapons can only be launched by Command and Control (C2) personnel who have the alphanumeric codes for Permissive Action Links (PALs). Pakistan's nuclear command and control is designed to maintain its existence at all the times no matter what. This setup is primarily designed to provide assured 2nd strike capability but also ensures weapons remain in right hands all the time and also eliminates the risk of accidental launch.
 
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