Pakistan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

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Brigadier
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Brigadier
Trump’s Pakistan crisis presents opportunity for Putin....

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Sitrep

The first thing the Republican US President Donald Trump did to start his new year was to open a cannon of insults against Pakistan, an old American ally from the Cold War days. The tirade of insults posted on twitter wasn’t diplomatic and his accusations were not factual, but then again neither President Donald Trump nor his kitchen cabinet in Washington DC is known for either of those.

The Pakistani leadership, namely the Foreign Minister Mr. Khawaja Asif was quick to reject Trump’s tweet but chose a careful diplomatic line for the official state policy that would be delivered the old fashioned way, not on Twitter. It however didn’t stop there, since the White House Press Secretary declared that specific measures would be announced against Pakistan. The State Department placed Pakistan on a rather ironic list of ‘religious freedom violators’.

This geopolitical standoff between the two traditional allies might eventually subside, however the damage to the relationship has already been done and it is likely to force Pakistan to further diversify

The US government has also frozen all military assistance to Pakistan unless it sees the actions it wants to see from Pakistan, in other words; coercion is the method of choice now. The US Ambassador to the United Nations Nimrata Randhawa aka Nikki Haley accused Pakistan of ‘playing a double game’, the conservative US Senator Rand Paul wants all kinds of aid cut to Pakistan in favor of building roads and bridges in the United States.

In short, Washington DC has decided to ‘squeeze’ Pakistan in a sign of further desperation and frustration as its war in Afghanistan gets stuck in a self inflicted quagmire, the fears of another ‘Vietnam’ loom large in Washington. This scenario is more of a crisis for the Donald Trump administration than it is for Pakistan, but it also represents a unique geopolitical opportunity for President Putin.

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Timing

This development in Washington isn’t unexpected for Pakistan; it is only a repeat of what the transactional relationship between the two countries is all about. That said, there are other key contributing factors at play here which are certainly responsible for accelerating this decision by the Trump Administration. Some analysts have cited the recent UNGA vote on the status of Jerusalem as a contributing factor as Pakistan declared open support for the two state solution and voted against the controversial and arbitrary move by the United States just like much of the world did including all UNSC members excluding the United States.

The military hardware sales that were in the pipeline will also be ‘frozen’, namely the mission critical AH-1Z attack helicopters and associated hardware in order to increase pressure on Pakistan’s

Another contributing factor is the increasingly influential Indian lobbying campaign by India to undermine the US, Pakistan relationship. While all of the aforementioned factors have their own merits, one cannot ignore the overarching geopolitical climate in the region, especially when Pakistan is increasingly reaching out to Russia to cultivate a log lasting partnership based on mutual interests modeled after its partnership with China. For example only recently the two countries are planning
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deal as well as discussing numerous deals for military hardware.

The United States is obviously unhappy over such moves by Pakistan because it undermines its anti-Russia sanctions and attempts to isolate Moscow internationally. Then there is the ever increasing geopolitical symmetry between Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey on the core issue of counter terrorism and the war in Afghanistan. The US policy has effectively been outflanked by regional countries working together to bring real peace in Afghanistan and the region at large.

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cont....


Response


With China, Iran, Turkey, all vocally backing Pakistan’s position on Afghanistan in the wake of the Trump administration’s India inspired ‘squeeze Pakistan’ policy, the leadership in Pakistan has decided to take its own countermeasures. Pakistan can well and truly be expected to ‘squeeze back’ because it is totally in a position to do so.

Mr. Putin has declared his intentions of providing military hardware to Pakistan to counter terrorism; if there is ever going to be a right time to act upon that intention, it is right now.

For starters, if the United States refuses to pay reimbursements for rendered services by Pakistan aka the Coalition Support Fund, consequently those services including the vital geographic access to Afghanistan will be blocked. Pakistan also has been a key contributor in providing intelligence to the United States, which can be cut back. Pakistan has also announced that it will expel 1.5 million Afghan refugees who entered its territory on humanitarian grounds as a result of the decades old US intervention in the country.

In addition to these measures, Pakistan is focusing only on stabilizing its side of the border with Afghanistan with a 2100km long fence which will be completed by the end of 2018. The border with Afghanistan will also see hundreds of Pakistan’s paramilitary posts and forts pop up to harbor a permanent military presence to counter terrorist infiltration from Afghanistan’s lawless regions as well as stopping illegal migration, drug trafficking and smuggling of food and fuel into Afghanistan. These countermeasures are designed to increase the pressure on the US funded quasi government in Kabul and ultimately on the United States.

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Opportunity
This developing situation in Pakistan is certainly going to turn into a geopolitical crisis for the Trump administration in the coming weeks and months; however such a crisis in such an important country is also a unique geopolitical opportunity for Mr. Putin.

The geopolitical vacuum left by the short sighted decisions taken by the Trump administration regarding its engagement with Pakistan can be filled by Russia, especially in areas where the United States is trying to ‘squeeze’ Pakistan

The aforementioned environment is now conducive for Russia to cultivate a truly strategic partnership with Pakistan, a country which is the centerpiece of the One Belt One Road initiative, controls strategically critical geography and possesses immense economic and military potential; therefore such a country in such close proximity with Russia is definitely a natural ally for Moscow. Through its close partnership with China, Pakistan’s leaders have proven that given a fair playing field, Pakistan is capable of cultivating, sustaining and nurturing long term strategic partnerships.

Such a partnership is based on geopolitical rationality and there is clearly a symmetry of interest at play; Pakistan and Russia both need each other in fields like economics, military hardware, diplomacy, transit trade and above all geopolitically. In this context an opportunity lies for Mr. Putin to capitalize on by taking the necessary steps to confidently establish such a partnership arrangement with Islamabad.

The geopolitical vacuum left by the short sighted decisions taken by the Trump administration regarding its engagement with Pakistan can be filled by Russia, especially in areas where the United States is trying to ‘squeeze’ Pakistan, namely in the military hardware dimension. Mr. Putin has declared his intentions of providing military hardware to Pakistan to counter terrorism; if there is ever going to be a right time to act upon that intention, it is right now.

Afghanistan will also see hundreds of Pakistan’s paramilitary posts and forts pop up to harbor a permanent military presence to counter terrorist infiltration from Afghanistan’s lawless regions as well as stopping illegal migration, drug trafficking and smuggling of food and fuel into Afghanistan.

Pakistan would also appreciate resolute diplomatic support from Moscow to relieve the engineered pressure from the United States. The US is effectively ‘punishing’ Pakistan for acting contrary to its geopolitical designs against Russia and China; it therefore becomes a geopolitical responsibility for Russia to cushion Pakistan when it is being ‘squeezed’ by the United States.

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Forecast

  • United States will ultimately cut down all civil-military aid to Pakistan as well as the reimbursements under the so called ‘Coalition Support Fund’. The military hardware sales that were in the pipeline will also be ‘frozen’, namely the mission critical AH-1Z attack helicopters and associated hardware in order to increase pressure on Pakistan’s military by undermining their technical ability to fight terrorism at home.
  • It is likely that if this situation escalates, the US military will try to carry out cross border attacks in Pakistan on their perceived targets, which will engineer a crisis between the two countries.
  • Pakistan is likely to shut down all services to the United States military if the payments for those services are frozen.
  • Pakistan is also likely to shut down land and air transit to Afghanistan for the US military supplies which will greatly hamper Trump’s intensified war in Afghanistan.
  • China, Russia, Turkey and Iran have lent their vocal support to Pakistan in the past; it is likely that the aforementioned trend will continue.
This geopolitical standoff between the two traditional allies might eventually subside, however the damage to the relationship has already been done and it is likely to force Pakistan to further diversify its foreign relations and interests including an increased outreach to Russia.

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Equation

Lieutenant General
China Appears to Have Secretly Sold Pakistan a Large Combat Drone, Says Report
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January 13, 2018

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China appears to have secretly sold Pakistan a large combat drone, according to new satellite images.

This was
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by the Center for the Study of the Drone at Bard College. Citing satellite images from November 2017, the Center reported on January 5th that there was a medium-altitude long-endurance drone spotted at the Alam Air Base in Mianwali, Pakistan. “The drone in the image appears to be a Wing Loong I. This assessment is based on its wingspan—which we believe to be around 14 meters— and its V-tail, as well as a comparison with other satellite images of the Wing Loong I elsewhere in the world,” the Center noted in its report. The report was
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by IHS Jane’s, which cited different satellite images taken from the same time.

The Wing Loong I is a strike-capable medium-altitude long-endurance drone built by the Chinese firm Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). It has a length of nine meters and a wingspan of fourteen meters. It can fly at heights of nearly 25,000 feet with a maximum speed of around 280 km/h and a range of 5,000 kilometers. According to IHS Jane's, it has a maximum take-off weight of 1,150 kilograms with a maximum payload capacity of 200 kg. The payload is split fifty-fifty between internal and external weapon stores. It is considered to be China’s version of America’s Predator drone

The drone in Pakistan appears to have been deployed for testing purposes. As the Center for the Study of the Drone’s analysis pointed out: “No drones or supporting equipment are visible in earlier satellite images of the base, suggesting that this drone may have arrived at Alam Air Base sometime in late November. The fact that there is no evidence of additional drones at the base, along with the fact that it is painted white—not the battlefield gray like other, deployed Wing Loong drones—might suggest that it is a test platform, not an operational airframe.” If so, this is probably not the first time that the Pakistan Air Force has been testing the Wing Loong I. In June 2016, a drone that appeared to be the Wing Loong I
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Alam Air Base apparently during a test run.

Pakistan has been operating armed drones for a number of years now, likely with the assistance of China. Islamabad
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its strike drones in 2013, when the military released a statement saying it had developed two drones that it referred to as the Burraq and the Shahpar. Foreign experts immediately cast doubt on Pakistan’s ability to indigenously produce armed drones. For instance, Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI),
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Financial Times: “Developing a drone with armed capability is much more difficult than just a reconnaissance one because the reconnaissance one can be built with very basic technology, but integrating weapons is a different level.” He added: “Either it is a Chinese UAV or based on Chinese technology.”

Indeed both the Shapar and the Burraq look a lot like the Chinese CH-3 UAV despite Pakistan’s claim that they were built by the local firms Global Industrial & Defence Solutions (GIDS) and National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM). Neil Gibson, an analyst at IHS Jane's, told FT that a "close analysis of the imagery released by Pakistan suggests at least a heavy debt to Chinese systems.” Regardless of their origin, Pakistan
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to carry out strikes against militant groups located in the country's tribal areas in 2015.

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...


CAPACITY BUILDING: NAF TAKES DELIVERY OF FINAL BATCH OF SUPER MUSHSHAK AIRCRAFT

The Nigerian Air Force (NAF) today, 14 January 2018, took delivery of the second batch of Super Mushshak trainer aircraft that the Federal Government had since ordered from Pakistan. The Ilyushin 76 Strategic Airlifter aircraft that brought the new Super Mushshak aircraft touched down at NAF Base Kaduna at exactly 7.45 am today. The Chief of Logistics at NAF Headquarters, Air Vice Marshal Bello Garba, received the new aircraft on behalf of the Chief of the Air Staff, Air Marshal Sadique Abubakar. A combined team of NAF and Pakistan Air Force (PAF) personnel were also on hand to assist in offloading the new aircraft, some parts of which came in crates. In addition, officials of the Nigerian Customs Service and the Nigerian Immigration Service were present to ensure necessary documentation. The newly delivered aircraft, which are capable of being used for acrobatics training, are all brand new and fitted with digital glass cockpit.

The newly received aircraft, five in number, form the final batch of a total of 10 Super Mushshak aircraft, the procurement of which the current Federal Government Administration initiated in Year 2016. As at 2015, local primary flying training in the NAF was almost grounded thereby necessitating the procurement of the Super Mushshak Aircraft. Consequently, with the delivery of the new Super Mushshak aircraft, primary flying training of NAF pilots at 401 Flying Training School (FTS), Kaduna has just received a boost. Without doubts, the delivery of the aircraft would go a long way in helping to sustain the process of building capacity to effectively prosecute the counterinsurgency operations in the North East as well as other forms of criminalities in the country.

It would be recalled that the NAF took delivery of the first batch of 5 brand new Super Mushshak Aircraft on 14 July 2017, following which the aircraft were inducted and deployed for primary training of NAF pilots. Furthermore, some NAF personnel had undergone training in Pakistan, as Instructor Pilots and technicians on the Super Mushshak aircraft, as part of the contract. The delivery went without any hitches and the Ilyushin 76 Aircraft has departed from Nigeria. The newly received aircraft will now be assembled in Nigeria by a team of PAF and NAF technicians prior to test flying and formal induction into the NAF.


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