Not new news per se, but I did an analysis about the Su-35 to Pakistan news.
Why is Pakistan looking at the Su-35?
Pakistan reportedly confirms Su-35 talks with Russia
By Bilal Khan
19 September 2015
It has been an interesting month for Russian-Pakistani relations. On the heels of a successfully concluded sale of an initial batch of four Mi-35 attack helicopters to Pakistan, reports about possible aircraft sales to Pakistan, most notably
and Su-35, began emerging. While there is no doubt that Pakistan’s commercial defence ties with Russia have improved considerably in the past few years (e.g. the vital role the Russians are playing by providing the RD-93 turbofan for use on the JF-17),
that it is important to manage expectations. A sudden jump to acquiring the Su-35, arguably Russia’s most advanced combat fighter on offer to the international fighter market,
.
For some background on this issue. On September 9th 2015 the Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergei Ryabkov, reportedly said that Russia was in talks with Pakistan over the sale of the Sukhoi Su-35. Although only one media source reported it (
), I felt this was not enough to indicate that there was enough smoke to infer a fire. Turns out, there may be a bit of a fire after all. A senior Pakistani government official
that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) was in fact in talks with Russia over the sale of Su-35-Es, but noted that talks were in their very early stages.
This is, without doubt, very big news. Not only does this lend credence to the talk about Pakistan expressing interest in the Su-35, but it also spells out several other implications as well. The first is the obvious impact this deal would have on Russia’s relations with India, and would necessitate the question of why Russia is even humouring such talks with Pakistan. The second implication is the apparent shift this would cause within the PAF’s doctrine, which until now has been defensive in nature (emphasizing the need to deny enemy air superiority) and not catered for long-range missions.
How will Russia get this deal past India?
The Indian dimension deserves a few articles in its own right, especially given New Delhi’s longstanding all-weather ties with Moscow and the interdependence of these two powers in the realm of defence. Yes, India is Russia’s leading importer and partner, but Russia is also India’s leading vendor and – despite India’s indigenous efforts – a preferred supplier of cutting-edge arms. It would be disingenuous to argue that one could thrive without the other. Russia needs India’s money and India needs Russia to competently equip, service and upgrade a significant proportion (if not majority) of its critical military equipment. I wonder if Russia is banking on this fact as a means to negate whatever pressure India plans to exert against a possible Su-35 sale that is apparently in the making between Moscow and Islamabad.
Why is Russia looking to conduct business with Pakistan?
Another, and increasingly cited, angle is that of Russia’s own geostrategic objectives,
by former Indian ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey M.K. Bhadrakumar. In his piece Bhadrakumar argued that Russia and China could “
coordinate their regional policies and the two big powers could be moving in tandem to strengthen Pakistan’s ‘strategic autonomy.’” According to Bhadrakumar this would be done through a mix of heavy economic investments as well as liberal access to advanced arms, thus gradually pulling Pakistan away from the heavy foreign relations influence of the U.S.
Personally, I would caution observers from adopting this point. Yes, there is an incentive for China and Russia to see a policy independent Pakistan capable of and willing to stand for its own interests in opposition to the U.S. However, Russia and China are not expansionary world powers looking to out-influence the U.S in other countries. China is Pakistan’s closest and most trusted defence partner, but that relationship has not translated into Pakistan taking an assertive stance against the U.S. on issues such as Afghanistan. That will depend on Pakistan itself and the capacity (as well as willingness) of its key decision-makers to consciously pull away from Washington. Investment from China and trade from Russia could help those decision-makers (and their ability to maintain an independent foreign policy), but those decision-makers actually need to exist in the first place, they will not come as a result of China and Russia’s efforts.
In the end the simplest explanation could be the most likely one, i.e. the fact that Russia may just be looking for another big market for its high-value goods. Yes a lot has and will be said about the capacity of the Pakistani economy to meet that expectation, but there may be some hope on the part of Russian exporters that Pakistan’s medium-to-long-term prospects will improve substantially in tandem with China’s massive infrastructure investments. It is unlikely that Pakistan would pay in hard cold cash, thus a financing plan (which Russia does provide) will likely be requested, so it will be interesting to see Russia’s terms (assuming talks reach an advanced enough stage).
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