Pacific Ocean Naval Strenght

Discussion in 'World Armed Forces' started by kroko, Nov 15, 2011.

  1. kroko
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    kroko Senior Member

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    what naval dominance? dont tell me you buy the "china threat" story. china has the fourth most powerful navy in the pacific region, behind US, japan and SK. Even if they beef it up, it will be nowhere near any kind of dominance.
     
  2. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

    Now now Kroko don't exaggerate China is behind Korea ? Are you serious with only 5 destroyer and 12 frigate Korea is not exactly the heavy weight in naval power

    Navies Ramping Up: Three Contested Regions - NYTimes.com
     
  3. Jeff Head
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    Jeff Head General
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    Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

    That graph is not very accuraate.

    The US 7th fleet is MUCH larger than depicted. They are only showing what currently is forward deployed. Within days, 4 times that amount can be available from Hawaii and the West Coast, all a part of the US 7th Fleet. If there was any thought of trouble, a lot more vessels would be on their way.

    Also, the ROK fleet and Japanese fleet are not accurately represented.

    Anyhow...the fact is that the PLAN is growing. But it certainly isn't dominant.

    However, outside of Japan alone, it already is larger and more capable than the other nation's fleets in the area (Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Singapore, Thailand, Philipines, Vietnam, etc.)

    But the US tips the scales drastically...and when you add Korea, Taiwan and Australia, (meaning basically that you have S. Korea, Japan, Australia, Taiwan and The US lined up on the same side) the balance is not even close.

    I expect the PLAn will continue to grow and modernize at a rapid rate, faster than any one of the others...in fact, faster than the growth of the 7th fleet. But not faster than all of them combined...and the PLAN is already down on numbers from the start and has a long way to go to reach parity...which I do not believe they intend in any case.

    The PLAN will have a large, capable fleet to defend their interests as they seem them and this will worry individual countries and be used to build up their navies. The US will use it too to continue to grow (albeit slowly at this point) and particularly to modernize.
     
  4. Bltizo
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    Bltizo Moderator
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    Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

    ^ Interesting diagram -- though Japan definitely does not have 30 destroyers rofl, it's more like 10 DDGs, 8 if we're counting Atago class as CGs. I believe JMSDF calls their frigates destroyers. Also like Jeff said the USN presence isn't very accurate.

    Then there's the whole question of quantity/quality which makes the PLAN's sub and frigate numbers look misleading -- but weighing that up, ROKN and PLAN should have parity. Certainly PLAN seems to have a greater number of amphibious assets (espicially in LST, and soon to be LPD/LHA aspect with 071s?).

    Besides ROKN and JMSDF have their equivalents of jianghu/wei's and ludas too and 054A, 052B/C, 051C aren't as massive as sejong or atago but still do their jobs well.

    In that we are comparing individual navies rather than a confrontation scenario, I think PLAN will pass the ROKN no questions asked (yes they still have their excellent/humungous sejong class), espicially as we add 2 and then another 2 052Cs in coming years, not to mention continued 054A production and PLAN gets a total of three 071s by this time next year.
    By ~2015, with the current products of the "building boom" in service, PLAN should be in position to challenge JMSDF for the number two spot... probably with 054A/052C follow ons and the new SSN.

    Whether the production rate increases or drops later this decade is the big question on how fast PLAN ascends, but I think the current rate is sustainable(?) keeping in mind the next gen of surface combatants will most likely be 1k tons heavier than the last.

    --

    Also is the fact that JMSDF and ROKN have far less comprehensive shipbuilding plans (that we know of) compared to PLAN -- those two navies have or will soon reach their limit/critical mass for their roles, where as PLAN has a long way to go to meet their goals
     
  5. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

    Right. In not too distant future PLAN will eclipse Japan as well assuming the current build up continue. As you said the Japanese count of destroyer is not accurate. With 12 % budget increase every year, soon The combined defense budget of Japan, India, Korea and South East Asia will be less than China's defense expenditure.

    Japan has 20 years lead over China but now they are burdened with budget deficit and the cost of Fukushima disaster will be astronomical and reduced their defense spending. In fact their budget has gone down year after year

    With looming budget crisis US too will be hard pressed to maintain the fleet in Asia If they failed to find compromised this November it will result in automatic reduction in defense budget.

    At the end of the day money talk
     
    #5 Hendrik_2000, Nov 15, 2011
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2011
  6. Bltizo
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    Bltizo Moderator
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    Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

    Yes but the PLA will not receive indefinitely increasing funding espicially with another economic crisis in our headlights.

    And PLAN will reach a critical mass in terms of equipment too eventually, probably once they have 4 or so carriers which would be well into the 2020s. I don't think PLAN will ever seek to challenge the USNs massive fleet.
     
  7. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

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    Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

    I don't think economic crisis will affect China that much. We can see it from the economic data coming in where import exceed export

    In the next 20 years China growth impetus will come from urbanization and consumer spending.

    For long time navy and air force take a backseat than the army. That is when China economy is essentially self sufficient and the level of trade is low or non existent. But situation is changed now that China economy depend on getting raw material to feed a growing economy. In not too distant future even food need to be imported.

    The border issue has mostly settled now except with India and no one is crazy enough to attack China

    So I will see the Air force and Navy will keep getting the lion share of defense spending coupled with growing sophistication of civilian economy that should ensure a growing navy and air force in next 20 years! Imagine 2030
     
  8. Bltizo
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    Bltizo Moderator
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    Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

    ^ We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves -- things can change quickly in a decade as we've seen ourselves. I'm not taking PRC's economic growh as a given and I'm sure the government will be increasingly wary how they manage the economy in coming years too.
     
  9. kwaigonegin
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    kwaigonegin Colonel

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    Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

    Let me rephrased then.. 'perception' of PLAN's naval dominance. Also if you read my entire post instead of cherry picking, it was written in context to possible/hypothetical purchase of QE by RAN in the future which presumbly by then, the PLAN will be much bigger and influential than it is today. I even said potential 3 CBGs powerful Navy by then.

    As we are all aware, humans being humans a lot of purchases are sometimes made with a combination of both emotions and facts. Perception drives a lot of this purchases. Doesn't matter if it's an $300 iPod or multi-billion dollar naval systems.
     
  10. Jeff Head
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    Jeff Head General
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    Re: PLAN Carrier Operations..News, Videos & Photos

    Japan has the following major combatants:

    3 CVH (2 Hyuga and one 22DDH constructing)
    12 DDG (Atago 2, Kongo 4, Akisuki 2, Hatakazi 2, Shirane 2)
    36 FFG (Takaname 5, Murasame 9, Asagari 8, Hatsuyuki 8, Abukuma 6)
    20 SS (Soryu 5, Oyashio 9, Harushio 4)
    3 LPD (Osumi)

    All of its destroyers and frigates are very capable, modern and well exercised. They have 48 of those guided missile surface combatants (I counted the Shirane as DDGs as opposed to DDHs because they carry three helos, but their weapons systems are a DDG fit). Their 20 subs are also very effective.

    I would rate them as the second largest and most effective Navy in the region behind the US 7th fleet...but IMHO, the PLAN is rapdily closing that gap.

    I am putting together a page and analysis of all of the major WESPAC fleets and will ping it here on SD when I complete it.

    South Korea is also a very effective fleet...but smaller. 12 DDGs, 10 FFGs and 12 SS, with 2 LPHs (the second Dokdo nearing completion).

    By comparison, right now the PLAN (once they get the 6 52cs to sea) has 17 modern DDGs, 36 modern FFGs (includes 20 Jiangweis), 8-9 SSNs, 34 modern SSs, 3 modern LPDs, 20 relatively new LSTs, and one new carrier CV. A very strong fleet. As they add another carrier, more FFGs, SSNs, SSs, LPDs and ultimately more DDGs they will surpass Japan (and with enough training with their modern equipment they are probably coming close to equaling them now) and ultimately Japan and Korea combined.
     
    #10 Jeff Head, Nov 15, 2011
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2011
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