i have been watching the iranian riot for the past two days so didnt spend a lot of time here, but have developed some thoughts about this event.
the riot that occurred between now and two days ago is not a pro-democracy movement as so many mainstream media outlets paint it. it was an extension of the political struggle from the post-khomeni era. khamenei was not the only contender for the succession and there are certainly many who felt that he didnt deserve the title. this dissatisfaction of course would not mean much if ahmadinejad didnt screw up the economy, but he did, so there was a riot. however that does not negate the likelihood that ahmadinejad did win the election (though might not be the landslide victory he claimed to have won). in any case the riot seemed to lack organization and leadership therefore i didnt really expect the rioters to really take over the government or anything. but at one point earlier i really did think that there could be a possibility of usurpation. khamenei was reported to have withdrew to an army base near tehran, that means ahmadinejad was left as the one responsible for whatever is happening to the city even though khamenei will be pulling the strings from behind the scene because he has the control of the army. khamenei's main challenge is obviously to secure the army's support...in which case the appointment of the new army chief in august became a lot more significant. if he had failed however it would have been an immediate defeat.
so far it seems that ahmadinejad has regained the upperhand. the army didnt really have to step in but their support is critical nonetheless.
all in all i am looking forward to some years of reactionary governing in ira lol. the key is still the economy, if that can be fixed everything is gonna be good, if not...then we'll see more of these riots in the future days. personally dont see an impending regime change from this riot.
the riot that occurred between now and two days ago is not a pro-democracy movement as so many mainstream media outlets paint it. it was an extension of the political struggle from the post-khomeni era. khamenei was not the only contender for the succession and there are certainly many who felt that he didnt deserve the title. this dissatisfaction of course would not mean much if ahmadinejad didnt screw up the economy, but he did, so there was a riot. however that does not negate the likelihood that ahmadinejad did win the election (though might not be the landslide victory he claimed to have won). in any case the riot seemed to lack organization and leadership therefore i didnt really expect the rioters to really take over the government or anything. but at one point earlier i really did think that there could be a possibility of usurpation. khamenei was reported to have withdrew to an army base near tehran, that means ahmadinejad was left as the one responsible for whatever is happening to the city even though khamenei will be pulling the strings from behind the scene because he has the control of the army. khamenei's main challenge is obviously to secure the army's support...in which case the appointment of the new army chief in august became a lot more significant. if he had failed however it would have been an immediate defeat.
so far it seems that ahmadinejad has regained the upperhand. the army didnt really have to step in but their support is critical nonetheless.
all in all i am looking forward to some years of reactionary governing in ira lol. the key is still the economy, if that can be fixed everything is gonna be good, if not...then we'll see more of these riots in the future days. personally dont see an impending regime change from this riot.
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