Op-plan 2010

utelore

Junior Member
VIP Professional
GOOD DAY ALL….Operational Plan 2010 is a Discussion and analyst of The very likely potential of military action by the PRC to assert its control over Taiwan. I think there is a wide range of specific technical expertise within our little group to pose very sound operational plans that may be used by both sides in the event of conflict.

I think we can look at everything from the best time for the PRC to start operations both covert and overt. To the defensive planning by the ROC. I believe we can have informative, sound and LEVEL HEADED discussions because of the size and quality of the Professional group. I believe we could look at everything from the economic issues that Sanpan could provide, The massive engagements at sea by Bd Poyeye and The most likely Pre-plots for arty by Gollevainen. I hope you all find this post interesting…..cheers utelore
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Interesting Idea.

Most interesting part is the feeling that you beleive that this is somehow inevitable. Possibly the clearest possible illustration of the difference in world view between the US and the R O W.

However keeping in spirit (but still reminding all that I think such a situation is highly unlikely) I will; when I have a moment, try to construct a realistic background, against which, such a deterioration could occur.

Untill then......
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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Ok here is a scenario which I think is both realistic, but not overly anatagonistic.

By 2005 it had become clear that China and USA were involved in a bitter struggle to secure Energy and Industrial Resources in order to ensure the continued, uninterrupted growth of their own economy. In addition the USA became deeply worried by the ongoing modernisation of the PRC's armed forces.

The USA soon opted for a policy of containment, in order to curtail the ambitions of it Giant Asian Rival and found this most effective when engaged in limiting China's exposure to High Technology. This not only reduced the potential effectiveness of both China's Industry and Military, but; by effect, created a level of high tech illiteracy in China's highest Military, Industrial and Scientific ecthelons.

The US discovered that the most oblique and effective method of persuing this policy was to target the Individual Corporations and Businessmen in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan that conducted Business ventures and Investments in China, especially those in High Tech areas.

Consequently Businesses which Invested, Operated and Exported High Tech components into China, started to find that they were unsuccesful in securing US deals, licences and accreditations etc, whilst those that relocated their activites within the region to Malysia, Thailand etc, seemed far less likely to experince such disruption to their plans.

China however was not prepared to sit passivly and courted the regions business community, especially the Taiwanese assiduously, offering varied, generous incentives to remain in China.

US policy did mange to fracture the Taiwanese business community and by this act revitalised the Pan Green parties which, by 2005, had seemed to have entered into terminal decline, being perceived as having no credible policy to offer for Mainland relations.

Caught however in the gravitational pull of the two rival giants, Taiwanese society rapidly polarised and, divided equally between Pan Blue and Pan Green, hit a political deadlock. Neither party was able to exert its will or provide effective goverment. Political inertia degenerated quickly into public militancy and civil unrest.

Finally in late 2009 Taiwanese Society itself fractured and after 60 years the Chinese Civil War flared up once again.

Faced with this situation, the PRC in accordance with its long held policy and the Anti-cessation Act, felt compelled to Intervene. The USA in response, viewing such an action as Unilateral change of the Status Quo, likewise, under the Taiwanese Assistance Act, felt compelled to intervene.

The stage was set!
 

rommel

Bow Seat
VIP Professional
Okay,for the land warfare.

DAY 1 of the Land Warfare (If they can), Chinese Attack

I think that the Chinese will be most likely to make an amphibious assault with their 1st and 2nd Marines Brigades on the south of the Island, when this first bridgehead will be established, the first reaction of the Taiwan military high command will be sending reinforcement. It will be the best moment for the PLA to open a second bridgehead with 1st, 124th and 144th Amphibious Assault division maybe in the middle of the Island. And the Airborne will maybe open a third front in the north and the PLA will disembark the 24th, 38th and 39th Group Army ( A total of 3 armored division, 8 mechanized infantry division, 3 artillery brigade, 2 choppers regiment,3 AA Brigade) to reinforce and relieve the most solid bridgehead. Maybe they would send 1 SF Group too behind the Taiwan defence line. I think this is a possible scenario of land intervention by the PLA. I'm working on the Taiwan Defece for Day 1 presently.
 
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bd popeye

The Last Jedi
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Keeping it real in this discussion is important. So I will!

I think that the Chinese will be most likely to make an amphibious assault with their 1st and 2nd Marines Brigades on the south of the Island,

Really? humm? Just how do you propose to get them accross the straights? I don't think the USN would allow this to occur. Are you assuming that the PLAN has some sort of LPH or CV. Or even 2 of theses type ships?. And what sort of air cover be used? How many trips will they make? I'm not sure at all about how many troops willl be need for an invasion.

Any sort of invasion attempt by the PRC would bring at least 3 USN CSG(carrier strike groups) with additional Arliegh Burkes and LA class assigned. There will be USAF B-1's,B-52's & F-15's from Guam also. The CSG would probaly be station about 200 miles east of Taiwain.
 

rommel

Bow Seat
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bd popeye said:
Keeping it real in this discussion is important. So I will!



Really? humm? Just how do you propose to get them accross the straights? I don't think the USN would allow this to occur. Are you assuming that the PLAN has some sort of LPH or CV. Or even 2 of theses type ships?. And what sort of air cover be used? How many trips will they make? I'm not sure at all about how many troops willl be need for an invasion.

Any sort of invasion attempt by the PRC would bring at least 3 USN CSG(carrier strike groups) with additional Arliegh Burkes and LA class assigned. There will be USAF B-1's,B-52's & F-15's from Guam also. The CSG would probaly be station about 200 miles east of Taiwain.

well, i'm specialized in the land warfare and I undestand nothing to Navy sorry things, sorry, so my vision will be on land, if the Chinese can land, okay ?

So I'll say that the landing will maybe occur after1 oe 2 week
 

Totoro

Major
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Yes, if china plans to actually invade taiwan with ground troops, it is of utmost importance to have air and sea superiority, at least over the strait area if not whole island of taiwan.

I think the biggest question in the whole invasion scenario is just how much of a surprise can chinese achieve. Gathering the entire fleet (ships to transport troops and ships to engage the enemy and protect the transports)and hundreds of thousands of soldiers is a process that takes time and is hard to hide.

USN can not respond very quickly to aid taiwan with sufficient strength. Sending a long CBG with only possible support being the planes stationed at okinawa is very risky. It is my opinion USN would wait till a sufficient number of CBGs can be assembled into an attack force. USAAF too would have to haul more assets to the area, okinawa and other japanese bases plus south korea.

Aside of possible F15c fighter interceptions to help defend taiwanese airspace from okinawa (which i'm also not sure about, as it's a comparably small force, going into a hornet's nest) only likely response US would have in the opening day of chinese invasion would be cruise missile attacks, perhaps deep strike B2 bombers too, if its deemed its safe enough. Here i would like to ask of someone more knowledgeable to share the information, just how much time would it need the USAAF/USN to start a steady hailstorm of cruise missiles from the moment they realize china is invading taiwan?

I guess that brings us back to how early US can detect the invasion preparations. It seems likely to me that china wouldn't compromise itself with preparing shipborne assault in advance of the air strikes. So lets assume chinese are preparing only the missile and aircraft attacks, with enough ships to at least counter if not neutralize taiwanese navy. How much warning time would US and taiwan have in such a scenario? Of course, once the first cruise/ballistic missiles hit taiwan it'd be obvious invasion is possible so china could go full steam preparing for it, not worrying as much about hiding it.

But lets go one step at a time, i suggest we just discuss the air superiority battle for now, the supression of taiwanese sams, ground based and ship based.

It is advertised taiwan has 20 hawk batteries, 3 patriot pac2 batteries and 6 skybow I and II batteries, which seem to be comparable to patriot on paper but are probably somewhat inferior. I've also read that skybow batteries are in ground bunkers/silos. Is that true and are all batteries under ground? That has both advatages and disadvantages.

Location of the batteries is somehwat flawed in my opition. If we are to trust globalsecurity.com map, one of the skybow batteries is on the Tunying island just 16 km off chinese coast. Further batteries are concentrated around taipei and south of the island, which might come to the advantage to the chinese as it means the batteries can't protect each other.

This is a way too big of a topic to do at once so i'm taking a break, to be continued. I am really interested to read what do you think china's first move would be, how would taiwan/us react and what would be the end resut of such a first, zero hour wave. (i suggest we use such a timeframe for this discussion, first attack occurs at zero hour, everything else that happens is +XX mins/hours/days from zero hour. Ok, actually zero hour would be the moment chinese start preparing in the first place.

Also, and this might influence further discussion greatly, how probable is that chinese maintain a strike force at range at full readiness whole time, 24/7/365? would that mean also a permanent watch of USN navy, with CBGs patrolling and rotating nearby at ALL time, 24/7/365? Perhaps it's best we assume chinese and taiwan/us readiness at today's level.
 

utelore

Junior Member
VIP Professional
I have thought greatly about a u.s response and the idea of no u.s response. I would suggest if you choose to plan your operational method with or without a u.s response that would be fine. If depending on the future power of the PRC and the stomach of the future u.s admin at the time of conflict would way heavy on the choice of the u.s to engage china in a military conflict.
 

Neko

New Member
VIP Professional
I believe that if anything, the PRC won't go after the renegades until after they have secured their rights to the Olympic games. They are a proud people, and want to use the exposure to prove against their human rights violations, et all.
 

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Such an interesting topic and so few posts. Or do most of people here think it's already been discussed to death? Oh well, i didn't participate in those discussions so it's new to me. Anyway, since no one else will go first i guess i'll have to, and then face criticism of my scenario. :p

Problem here is the 2010 bit. It's damn hard to predict what will be in 5 years time. If you allow, i will make my scenario based now, late 2005/early 2006 time period.

I'm guessing taiwan could get tops 24 hours of a warning that something serious is going on in china, if china sticks with preparing just the air campaign first, also sticking mostly with the aircraft that are already stationed in range of taiwan.

Based on satellite data and spy reports, maybe even special forces incursions, airports, sam sites (especially sky bow batteries that are underground) comm nodes and various HQs would be targeted first with ballistic/cruise missiles, alongside with any major ROC navy ships if those are still anchored at a time of attack.

underground sams and airfields could be targeted with ballistic missiles while the comm nodes, mobile sam sites and anchored ships could be targeted with cruise missiles. To the best of my knowledge, and this is according to the pentagon report, PRC has some 700-800 short/medium range ballistic missiles with 150-500 m CEP accuracy and some 200 cruise missiles with 10-15 m CEP accuracy.

It is of course really hard to predict just how much damage such an attack could inflict on taiwanese forces. Given the limited stocks of sam missiles, especially since it takes time to replace the spent containers and a further chinese aircraft attack could be imminent, i do not believe taiwan would risk to use/waste great numbers of their patriot/skybow missiles to intercept chinese missile attack. Perhaps on large targets such as airports which are more probable to be hit, even given the relative lack of accuracy of ballistic missiles.

So this is complete and utter guesswork. After the attack, I'll go with a figure of 15% of patriot and skybow batteries being put out of comission, alongside with 5% of taiwans aircraft being destroyed and further 25% not being able to take off before the airfields were repaired enough. is 6 hours enough to clear the runways of mines/ sticky pointy stuff/ fill craters? Or should we go with 12 hours? Or more? Other sams like hawk and smaller, short range systems, would be intact, as well as ship based sams. I think it'd be fairer if, in these complete guesswork situations, we give the benefit of the doubt to taiwan, so these percentages i listed here are my a-little-bit-on-the-negative-side-for-china figures.

Almost simultaniously, attack on the Tungyin island, 16 km off china's coast would commence. I am assuming forces need for such a relatively small scale attack could be prepared without much further warning. It is close enough for massive artillery attack, plus helicopter incursions and small boat invasion. Larger ships and more important aircraft would still be out of range of taiwans forces based on that island. Once the radar stations and skybow battery are neutralized, which would be first and primary target, china's air attack would commence.

Anyway, before we go further i'd really like some comments and criticism from the rest of you. For example, how realistic is the damage inflicted by china's missile attack? It is very important that we all settle on one set of figures before going on. Also, how many aircraft can china launch at taiwan at once? Limitations would be number of aircraft stationed in range of taiwan (without transfering additional aircraft since that'd alarm taiwan too early) and perhaps even a greater limitation, how big could those attack waves be, what are the logistics, navigation and coordination problems china might face? Can they guide a 200 strong force at once? Or even a 400 plane force at once? Or even more?

Also, where would taiwanse ship based sams be? What coverage would they have, assisting in the fight against chinese aircraft? How big of a navy attack could china mount with the forces it has in the area, again, so it doesn't alarm taiwan in advance? As far as taiwanese ship based sams are concerned, im going with following figures: 7 chiao yang (gearing) class destroyers, with 10 SM1 medium range missiles each, 8 perry class frigates with 40 SM1 MR missiles each, 6 lafayette class frigates with crotale sams. for 8 of the knox class frigates taiwan has i did not find any data about their sam capability, all the other weapon systems are listed but no sams. With ASROC system mentioned, it does seem plausible that main use of knox class is ASW, for which sam systems are less needed. If by any chance they do have some sams, it would be limited to sea sparrow missiles.
 
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