Such an interesting topic and so few posts. Or do most of people here think it's already been discussed to death? Oh well, i didn't participate in those discussions so it's new to me. Anyway, since no one else will go first i guess i'll have to, and then face criticism of my scenario.
Problem here is the 2010 bit. It's damn hard to predict what will be in 5 years time. If you allow, i will make my scenario based now, late 2005/early 2006 time period.
I'm guessing taiwan could get tops 24 hours of a warning that something serious is going on in china, if china sticks with preparing just the air campaign first, also sticking mostly with the aircraft that are already stationed in range of taiwan.
Based on satellite data and spy reports, maybe even special forces incursions, airports, sam sites (especially sky bow batteries that are underground) comm nodes and various HQs would be targeted first with ballistic/cruise missiles, alongside with any major ROC navy ships if those are still anchored at a time of attack.
underground sams and airfields could be targeted with ballistic missiles while the comm nodes, mobile sam sites and anchored ships could be targeted with cruise missiles. To the best of my knowledge, and this is according to the pentagon report, PRC has some 700-800 short/medium range ballistic missiles with 150-500 m CEP accuracy and some 200 cruise missiles with 10-15 m CEP accuracy.
It is of course really hard to predict just how much damage such an attack could inflict on taiwanese forces. Given the limited stocks of sam missiles, especially since it takes time to replace the spent containers and a further chinese aircraft attack could be imminent, i do not believe taiwan would risk to use/waste great numbers of their patriot/skybow missiles to intercept chinese missile attack. Perhaps on large targets such as airports which are more probable to be hit, even given the relative lack of accuracy of ballistic missiles.
So this is complete and utter guesswork. After the attack, I'll go with a figure of 15% of patriot and skybow batteries being put out of comission, alongside with 5% of taiwans aircraft being destroyed and further 25% not being able to take off before the airfields were repaired enough. is 6 hours enough to clear the runways of mines/ sticky pointy stuff/ fill craters? Or should we go with 12 hours? Or more? Other sams like hawk and smaller, short range systems, would be intact, as well as ship based sams. I think it'd be fairer if, in these complete guesswork situations, we give the benefit of the doubt to taiwan, so these percentages i listed here are my a-little-bit-on-the-negative-side-for-china figures.
Almost simultaniously, attack on the Tungyin island, 16 km off china's coast would commence. I am assuming forces need for such a relatively small scale attack could be prepared without much further warning. It is close enough for massive artillery attack, plus helicopter incursions and small boat invasion. Larger ships and more important aircraft would still be out of range of taiwans forces based on that island. Once the radar stations and skybow battery are neutralized, which would be first and primary target, china's air attack would commence.
Anyway, before we go further i'd really like some comments and criticism from the rest of you. For example, how realistic is the damage inflicted by china's missile attack? It is very important that we all settle on one set of figures before going on. Also, how many aircraft can china launch at taiwan at once? Limitations would be number of aircraft stationed in range of taiwan (without transfering additional aircraft since that'd alarm taiwan too early) and perhaps even a greater limitation, how big could those attack waves be, what are the logistics, navigation and coordination problems china might face? Can they guide a 200 strong force at once? Or even a 400 plane force at once? Or even more?
Also, where would taiwanse ship based sams be? What coverage would they have, assisting in the fight against chinese aircraft? How big of a navy attack could china mount with the forces it has in the area, again, so it doesn't alarm taiwan in advance? As far as taiwanese ship based sams are concerned, im going with following figures: 7 chiao yang (gearing) class destroyers, with 10 SM1 medium range missiles each, 8 perry class frigates with 40 SM1 MR missiles each, 6 lafayette class frigates with crotale sams. for 8 of the knox class frigates taiwan has i did not find any data about their sam capability, all the other weapon systems are listed but no sams. With ASROC system mentioned, it does seem plausible that main use of knox class is ASW, for which sam systems are less needed. If by any chance they do have some sams, it would be limited to sea sparrow missiles.