Only " Tibet Water to Xinjiang Project" can save China from severe economic&social unrest

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by tidalwave, Jul 6, 2018.

  1. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Junior Member
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    I compare the expected output of the project to alternatives.
     
  2. antiterror13
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    antiterror13 Colonel

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    you are comparing an apple and a dog :mad: .. is it comparable?
     
  3. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Junior Member
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    My bad, I haven't checked the map : (

    That Xinjiang is way away from any useful area. That is just bit better than Tibet : )

    You are right, it is not possible to brig water by any other way there than a channel.
     
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  4. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    actually, China economy not good at all.
    Average people 80% wealth is at real estate and now real estate is crashing.
    The top real estate company Vanke is doing 50% off on alot of new real estate. Or buy one and get one free.
    Alot of people who bought houses earlier are protesting this.

    So, only this Tibet Water to Xinjiang is very much needed.
     
  5. gelgoog
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    gelgoog Senior Member
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    The thing with the real estate market is that it goes in cycles. In the West houses can typically go like 20 years at best without major maintenance being done to them. From what I've heard in China it's even less than that because of several issues.

    China has been doing major investments in things like building subways on all major cities. There's OBOR. Like you said water projects could also be an important part of it. They are also working on cleaning up their energy sector. Right now China's gas pipeline network for example is still in its infancy. China will still continue to grow for a long time I think. At least a decade if not more.
     
  6. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Junior Member
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    These investment project are dwarfed by the residential building industry.

    The housing requirement of China is around 500 million houses/flats. Each new cost say 100 000 $, so if the building rate is 30 million house /year then the market is 300 billion $/year, distributed evenly in the population centres, so the it growing every part of the country evenly, and there is no bottleneck in the projects.

    If there is an increase of housing build by say 10 million unit/year , then its immediately increase the gdp by 100 billion $, without taking into consideration the required fixed investment into machines/factories , infrastructure to build the houses (roads, electrical network and so one)

    And this considering only cash buyers, but the mortgages put the whole process onto steroids.

    The banks can book all future cash flow to the current value of mortgage, so they can book the expected profit/income over the next 30 years to the current value of the mortgage.

    So, now the increased mortgage activity can easily increase the GDP growth by 10-50% of the yearly housing build activity.

    All of this add up, so increase the building activity by 100 billion$/year can increase the GDP by 1.5-3%.

    But this tibet water project/gas pipe and so on concentrated to remote areas, with serious bottleneck that restrict the building speed. So, even if the tibet water project require 1600 billion $, and that can not be distributed say over ten years, it needs to be done over 30 or more years say, means the direct gdp effect will be only fraction of a %.

    The US spend approx 20-30 billion (current) $ onto the panama canal, and it took 15 -20 years to spend this money.

    So, it was approximately 1.5 billion/year speed, so the Tibet water (if the full cost is 1600 billion $) over 30 years can be 53 billion $/years, 30 times faster than than Panama canal. 5 million Chinese needs to work on it for 30 years.

    So,, maybe the 30 years is a bit stretch.

    The Crimean bridge has aprox. 0.5-1.5 billion$/year.
     
  7. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    Latest update on 12/30/2018

    The purple line is the new flow going into Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia.
    This will be the New China consists of 200 Million population.


    upload_2018-12-31_19-18-28.png
     
  8. antiterror13
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    antiterror13 Colonel

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    How much water to be diverted to Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia in m3 of water? and what percentage from total water flow there ?
     
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  9. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    They estimate to get only about 20% of Yalungshanpo river. Keep in mind they plan to massively increase the precipitation in Tibet plateau through use of cloud seeding stations.
     
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  10. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    The new China will make China proud unlike old China, too many DengXiaoPing followers, that's Bad!

    And you know it's bad when warmongering VP pence openly wants China to go back to the DengXiaoPing way.

    Forget it!
     
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