Only " Tibet Water to Xinjiang Project" can save China from severe economic&social unrest

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Depending on how the project is made this could be vital for the Chinese economy. China is one of the world's largest food importers, so any policy which increases the amount of irrigated agricultural land is quite welcome. I also think China should learn from Japan and try to use vertical farming so that cities can grow their own produce (like vegetables) locally taking into account the energy generation increase that is coming over the next decade.

As for OBOR I think it has been quite successful in Central Asia and Africa. These were the main focus of the program. What happened in Malaysia is IMHO not that important. Progress on Pakistan has been impressive, regardless of the delays on this or that project. It is unfortunate also that not all projects in Burma have gone through. But the pipelines, which were IMHO the matter of most importance to China, have been going through just fine. OBOR is important since it brings new markets for Chinese products, and new investment areas, in countries which are less allied with the West and hence could improve China's economy even with a trade sanctions war. It also diversifies the energy entry points and transport routes into China.

The canal in Thailand, now that would have been a major achievement, it's a shame they can't agree on an investment like that. It would allow China to completely bypass the Straight of Malacca and cut on shipment times to the West. I think that would have been more important than any Malayan investment.
 

SilentObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
"Tibet water to Xinjiang" studies have been completed and plans have been laid out.
This will create a new China, able to support 200 million CHinese in Xinjiang.
The newly transformed lanscape will able to produce abundance of agriculture crops and livestocks and support huge population there.


Taklamakan desert will be transformed into another california.

It will able to absorb AT LEAST 200 million ex-Chinese from eastern China.

With abundance of food, dont care what type of severe economic and social conditions are, China will still able to chuck along even if the whole world is sanctioning or trade war with China.


img_takla-makan-desert-map.jpg



Anti-Xi fractions are spreading everywhere and telling people Xi and CPC collapsing especially during this Trump trade war then added on top of China huge debts of 3x the total GDP, Huge real estate bubbles.
This will be the last straw that breaks camel's back.
But this "Tibet water to Xinjiang" will help China to stabilize even during severe economic and social unrest.

The project will able to absorb 200 million people , able to absorb all those jobless, moneyless workers.
it will absorb all those unrest excessive people and bring to xinjiang, bring all those unstable elements out of eastern China.

Even if China under severe economic and social unrest, it wouldn't matter.

This "Tibet water to Xinjiang" will provide abundance of food to Chinese people no matter what the conditions are
As crazy as the idea sounds, I agree with your overall assessment, it makes structural sense. China is going to undergo another phase of immense structural change similar (or more severe) to the likes of the massive layoffs during 1990s which numbered in the tens of millions. Except during the 90s China had a rapidly growing low end goods export industry. Current environment and domestic policies are essentially going to force another major layoff in traditional sectors as China pushes even harder for high value industries. I don't think there is another choice from Chinese leaders' POV but to upgrade as the trade war and over all tensions rise between China and the US.

China has a very good chance of making this transition as China has enough tools but it will leave some scars that will take a long time to heal. Overall China in the next 10 years will continue rapid development (likely see even faster tangible development than previous era) scientifically, economically, and militarily but at a higher social cost. The water project will serve to help heal the scars faster, decrease the spread of the scars in the first place, and lessen the pain of the scars. As China upgrades even faster and increases productivity, structurally there would be surplus labor unable to find a position in the new economy, creating higher unemployment. We saw this in the US during the "post-industrial" era, overall it was another boom time for high end industry and the economy but caused widespread social issues. China will have this but at a compressed timeline, at a larger scale and in higher density. This will fuel discontent and will destabilize China's industrial heartland if there is critical mass. I actually think major unrest in Eastern China is harder to deal with than in Xinjiang.

Population can be absorbed in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Xinjiang as China has plenty of empty land. To make good use of the land, water is the missing ingredient and there is a source available, they just need to build a massive project to transfer it. Instead of just giving out government benefits, the money can be used to employ workers on this mega project and it will drive industrial demand. It has the benefit of being far away from China's industrial heartland. There is also the benefit of improving China's long term food and social security. The project would pay for itself many fold.

6% lives West of the line while 94% lives East of the line. Initially a few million workers would be employed directly and indirectly in various construction projects and support industries. I think it can happen once more infrastructure is built in South West China. These workers should be given incentives to settle in new fertile land. Once there is a seed economy scattered around North Western China, more companies can be incentivized to develop that region. What is mind boggling about this project is that the planners want to implement a shipping canal from Lanzhou all the way to Hotan and Hami.Heihetongchang-Line.png


I wouldn't be surprised if the US eventually unleashes everything in its tool box short of direct war to starve and destabilize China. They have already openly declared China as enemy number 1. With a growing middle class the ecological footprint increases, more demand that can be met domestically and within China's sphere of influence the better it is for China's security.
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
I wouldn't be surprised if the US eventually unleashes everything in its tool box short of direct war to starve and destabilize China. They have already openly declared China as enemy number 1. With a growing middle class the ecological footprint increases, more demand that can be met domestically and within China's sphere of influence the better it is for China's security.


China will at least lose 10million jobs next 5 years due to alot of companies moving out.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
As crazy as the idea sounds, I agree with your overall assessment, it makes structural sense. China is going to undergo another phase of immense structural change similar (or more severe) to the likes of the massive layoffs during 1990s which numbered in the tens of millions. Except during the 90s China had a rapidly growing low end goods export industry. Current environment and domestic policies are essentially going to force another major layoff in traditional sectors as China pushes even harder for high value industries. I don't think there is another choice from Chinese leaders' POV but to upgrade as the trade war and over all tensions rise between China and the US.

China has a very good chance of making this transition as China has enough tools but it will leave some scars that will take a long time to heal. Overall China in the next 10 years will continue rapid development (likely see even faster tangible development than previous era) scientifically, economically, and militarily but at a higher social cost. The water project will serve to help heal the scars faster, decrease the spread of the scars in the first place, and lessen the pain of the scars. As China upgrades even faster and increases productivity, structurally there would be surplus labor unable to find a position in the new economy, creating higher unemployment. We saw this in the US during the "post-industrial" era, overall it was another boom time for high end industry and the economy but caused widespread social issues. China will have this but at a compressed timeline, at a larger scale and in higher density. This will fuel discontent and will destabilize China's industrial heartland if there is critical mass. I actually think major unrest in Eastern China is harder to deal with than in Xinjiang.

Population can be absorbed in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Xinjiang as China has plenty of empty land. To make good use of the land, water is the missing ingredient and there is a source available, they just need to build a massive project to transfer it. Instead of just giving out government benefits, the money can be used to employ workers on this mega project and it will drive industrial demand. It has the benefit of being far away from China's industrial heartland. There is also the benefit of improving China's long term food and social security. The project would pay for itself many fold.

6% lives West of the line while 94% lives East of the line. Initially a few million workers would be employed directly and indirectly in various construction projects and support industries. I think it can happen once more infrastructure is built in South West China. These workers should be given incentives to settle in new fertile land. Once there is a seed economy scattered around North Western China, more companies can be incentivized to develop that region. What is mind boggling about this project is that the planners want to implement a shipping canal from Lanzhou all the way to Hotan and Hami.View attachment 48976


I wouldn't be surprised if the US eventually unleashes everything in its tool box short of direct war to starve and destabilize China. They have already openly declared China as enemy number 1. With a growing middle class the ecological footprint increases, more demand that can be met domestically and within China's sphere of influence the better it is for China's security.

I doubt the situation will devolve to a situation like where the US and the USSR were at each other's throats.

China is just too important in the world and also interwoven with the USA in so many ways.

---

Modern populous economies just aren't based on having a lot of land.

We can see that countries with very high population densities can still be wealthy and developed (like in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan) because they rely on industry, business and technology, rather than natural resources or agriculture which is water-intensive.

And if there are water shortages (in places like Singapore and Israel), modern desalination technologies means fresh water can be produced from sea water at an affordable cost for a fairly wealthy population.

And for a region to be wealthy, it helps a lot to be located near the coast or along an inland waterway like the Yangtze River, because of the very low cost of waterborne transport compared to trucks, trains or planes.

So if you look at a precipitation map, much of Inner Mongolia already has a decent amount of rainfall (compared with Xinjiang or Gansu) and is fairly close to the coast and a decent enough climate.

And there is enough flat land in Inner Mongolia for 200million new settlers, if you really wanted to transfer that many people there.

But I don't think there is a need to relocate that many people, as it's better to develop locations closer to where people already live.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
I doubt the situation will devolve to a situation like where the US and the USSR were at each other's throats.

China is just too important in the world and also interwoven with the USA in so many ways.

---

Modern populous economies just aren't based on having a lot of land.

We can see that countries with very high population densities can still be wealthy and developed (like in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan) because they rely on industry, business and technology, rather than natural resources or agriculture which is water-intensive.

And if there are water shortages (in places like Singapore and Israel), modern desalination technologies means fresh water can be produced from sea water at an affordable cost for a fairly wealthy population.

And for a region to be wealthy, it helps a lot to be located near the coast or along an inland waterway like the Yangtze River, because of the very low cost of waterborne transport compared to trucks, trains or planes.

So if you look at a precipitation map, much of Inner Mongolia already has a decent amount of rainfall (compared with Xinjiang or Gansu) and is fairly close to the coast and a decent enough climate.

And there is enough flat land in Inner Mongolia for 200million new settlers, if you really wanted to transfer that many people there.

But I don't think there is a need to relocate that many people, as it's better to develop locations closer to where people already live.
Industry is actually extremely water intensive. Desalination costs are coming down, but is energy intensive. Also transporting water uphill long distances is one of the most expensive things you can do.

My concern is the the Himalayas will dry out in 100-200 years or not, depends on what model you believe. Then what happens to the 100 million people you move there? And their farms?
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Industry is actually extremely water intensive. Desalination costs are coming down, but is energy intensive. Also transporting water uphill long distances is one of the most expensive things you can do.

My concern is the the Himalayas will dry out in 100-200 years or not, depends on what model you believe. Then what happens to the 100 million people you move there? And their farms?
Tibet plateau and Himalaya is roof of the world. Whole Artic would melt first and wipe out most coastal cities in the world first before Himalaya dry up. Glacier melting in Tibet plateau doesn't mean it won't able continuously collect water from precipitation. All it means China needs to quickly dam them up and collect them before they run away.

So, it cannot dry up.
 
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tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
I doubt the situation will devolve to a situation like where the US and the USSR were at each other's throats.

China is just too important in the world and also interwoven with the USA in so many ways.

---

Modern populous economies just aren't based on having a lot of land.

We can see that countries with very high population densities can still be wealthy and developed (like in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan) because they rely on industry, business and technology, rather than natural resources or agriculture which is water-intensive.

And if there are water shortages (in places like Singapore and Israel), modern desalination technologies means fresh water can be produced from sea water at an affordable cost for a fairly wealthy population.

And for a region to be wealthy, it helps a lot to be located near the coast or along an inland waterway like the Yangtze River, because of the very low cost of waterborne transport compared to trucks, trains or planes.

So if you look at a precipitation map, much of Inner Mongolia already has a decent amount of rainfall (compared with Xinjiang or Gansu) and is fairly close to the coast and a decent enough climate.

And there is enough flat land in Inner Mongolia for 200million new settlers, if you really wanted to transfer that many people there.

But I don't think there is a need to relocate that many people, as it's better to develop locations closer to where people already live.

There's a reason why China wants developing Westward direction. Belt and Road. Not only farming, China trying to bring alot of industries to Xin-jiang so save up on transportation cost from Eastern China

Inner Mongolia is a dead ended alley.

There's this conception calls strategic depth. Can't compare those relying small countries to independence driven big country like China.

There's a reason why Japan, South Korea, Singapore succumbing to US. China cannot do that! You comparing apples to oranges

Wealthy means nothing if you cannot control things in your own hand. It can be wipe out overnight.

Independence is the name of the game here.
 
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PiSigma

"the engineer"
Tibet plateau and Himalaya is roof of the world. Whole Artic would melt first and wipe out most coastal cities in the world first before Himalaya dry up. Glacier melting in Tibet plateau doesn't mean it won't able continuously collect water from precipitation. All it means China needs to quickly dam them up and collect them before they run away.

So, it cannot dry up.
Actually there isn't that much moisture locked up in the Himalayan mountains via glaciers compared to the south or north poles. And they are melting pretty quickly since the last ice age was a pretty long time ago.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
There's a reason why China wants developing Westward direction. Belt and Road. Not only farming, China trying to bring alot of industries to Xin-jiang so save up on transportation cost from Eastern China

Inner Mongolia is a dead ended alley.

There's this conception calls strategic depth. Can't compare those relying small countries to independence driven big country like China.

There's a reason why Japan, South Korea, Singapore succumbing to US. China cannot do that! You comparing apples to oranges

Wealthy means nothing if you cannot control things in your own hand. It can be wipe out overnight.

Independence is the name of the game here.

Xinjiang and the rest of Western China simply doesn't have much population, so there is a limit to how much industry can move there.

For example, VW only opened a small 50K car production plant in Urumqi, because that is all the local market can support.

Inner Mongolia is not a dead end alley. We can see the existing cities of Hohhot and Baotou do have self sustaining and growing industries.
They are located just on the edge of densely populated core China and near BeiJing and the port of Tianjin.

China already has a lot of geographical strategic depth. What China currently lacks is technological depth, but that will not come from relocating hundreds of millions of people from where they currently reside in core China to a distant periphery.

A wealthy China would have an economy some 4x larger than the USA, and would presumably have it's own set of hi-tech companies in every industry. China would be a much more important trade and investment partner for Asia than the USA.
China would also be spending a lot more on the military than the USA.

That wealth is what will allow China can chart its own independent course, irrespective of what anyone else.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Actually there isn't that much moisture locked up in the Himalayan mountains via glaciers compared to the south or north poles. And they are melting pretty quickly since the last ice age was a pretty long time ago.

Not the ice age.
Two effects of having tall mountain. Not so much about locked up as.

1)The rain forms because of rising water vapor forced up by mountains reaches a saturation point by temperature and pressure and condensation occurs (clouds, fog) then saturation forces the water out as precipitation.

2)A river may begin in mountains where there is snow. The melting snow runs together to form a small stream that runs down the mountain

Himalaya has some tallest mountains in the world. And it's cold up the top means theres snow forming. and mountain creates rains,
Tibetan Glacier is one thing but there are other factors for creating rivers.

Having tallest mountains helps!
 
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