North Korea's Military Capability

Discussion in 'World Armed Forces' started by Dook, Jan 14, 2019.

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  1. TerraN_EmpirE
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    TerraN_EmpirE Tyrant King

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    Air power is important but the raw numbers don't make it a bloodless fight and they do have nukes.
    Yet even without those the artillery, conventional and the well known chemical weapons factor comes into play. Most of South Korea is in easy reach of those. Especially Seoul.
    The costs to South Korea are very high in the offensive.
    Additionally the North are know to have planed the same kind of Post regime guerilla warfare strategy that has drawn on and slowed things in Iraq to farther destabilize.

    Well I agree a conventional war would be one-sided military. The costs would be very high.
    The North has built its strategy on the idea of making the costs of action destructive across the board. This is why the South doesn't attack.
    The economic hardship would leave the reunited Korea's a disaster.
     
  2. Jura
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    Jura General

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    Deino if I were you, I'd close this thread before individuals will come up with what? their versions of an easy Inchon landing/Chosin Reservoir battle remake? dropping napalm? sending human waves?

    after all there's
    FORBIDDEN TOPICS:

    • No "what if" discussion about war, particularly nuclear war, between China and other nations, or between any nations.
     
  3. Anlsvrthng
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    Anlsvrthng Senior Member
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    Interesting.
    My first thought was "it is underestimate of NK".

    But, check Wonsan :
    wonsan 2010.jpg wonsans 2017.jpg

    As it looks like they finished the underground base, and around 2011 they abandoned it , but only after they created the tunnels in the mountain ( I can't see any more place for the extracted material )
    I presume the farmers using the runways to dry something now.

    At the same time check the main fertiliser plant of NK next to Anju :
    NH3 2010.jpg NH3 2017.jpg
    Wonsan started before 2002 , last change on the satellite pictures was in 2011 t, Anju was upgraded between 2006-2010.
     
  4. Dook
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    Dook New Member
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    I didn't say it would be bloodless. You guys seem to only be able to think in pure black and white, on or off, odd or even, binary 1 or 0, but that's not the way the universe works.

    The North Koreans would suffer a lot of losses. 300 cruise missiles hitting military barracks (tank and armor crew barracks) at about the same time would cause a lot of casualties as well as sinking every submarine and destroyer and most of the patrol boats in the opening strikes.

    NK would be able to get off some artillery rounds before the A-10's would get to them. Seoul would sustain some damage but if people in the north facing apartments have already moved into the bunkers then casualties would be minimal. One A-10 has eleven hard points for bombs and they have a big gun so one aircraft can take out multiple artillery guns very easily.

    Chemical weapons work on exposed populations. If the attack comes at midnight when everyone is already at home or in a bunker practicing a scheduled drill then no one would be exposed. Chemical weapons material would likely dissipate by morning.

    The costs to the South Koreans on the opening offensive would be almost none. If North Korea really does have all of it's armor hidden underground then it's not going to be easy to deploy them. The cruise missiles would already hit every barracks building so about half of the crews would be dead or injured. Any vehicle that moves would be identified by F-35 infrared detectors and the information relayed to a JSTARs aircraft and F-16's and F-15's would be directed to attack. One F-15 can carry 20 SBD's.

    The North has planned to have a guerilla warfare strategy? It would never happen. Once the North Korean's get a taste of South Korean movies and music and more food and the internet and having 200 television channels and freedom of movement, they will accept it. Also, the Korean people are just very different from the arabs. After WW2 the Japanese and Germans did not start an insurgency. They went to work and developed their countries into economic miracles. The arabs teach their children to be lazy. I've been there, I know, I've seen it. The really hard work in arab countries is performed by people from India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Tibet.

    South Korea doesn't attack North Korea because they have done studies that concluded that combining with the North, even peacefully, would cost them as much as $61 billion. This is incorrect because it assumes that the South would have to do everything to bring the North up to South Korean standards. The truth is that the North needs nothing except better leadership. They are entirely independant now but when they have drought or floods that destroy the crops the rural people starve because the government steals it all and sends it to Pyonyang. They just need some better leadership. The North doesn't have to become exactly like the South immediately. In time they would catch up but they would do it on their own with a little help from the South.
     
  5. Dook
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    Dook New Member
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    Drop about ten bunker buster bombs into those underground facilities and they won't be able to get any of their equipment out. It will be hopelessly buried and take a week to dig out.

    This is getting even easier than I thought.
     
  6. TerraN_EmpirE
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    TerraN_EmpirE Tyrant King

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    In retaliation artillery based and Missiles would be fired to the South. Targeted at major population centers. Included amongst those chemical weapons.

    Your counter assumption is based on "well people would be in shelter"
    The moment a drill is launched the North is alerted. They have agents in the South specifically for such.
    Not everyone also follows these kinds of drills it takes a lot of material to prepare for them.
    Assuming that the South can share it and it can get North. It not a snap of the fingers here. The North Korean infrastructure collapsed decades ago. It would take 61 billion dollars to pull them into the 21st century.

    You claim that the food and water is stolen and dragged off to the capital that is partially true, however the food system is in bad shape due to a number of issues. A couple years back a DPRK very publicly defected after having been shot crossing the Joint security area.
    His intestines were infested with parasites. Because of agro isolation the North has been using human waste as fertilizer. This has spread rampant parasites and disease.
    Large members of the populace have never seen a doctor and the malnutrition rate is a humanitarian disaster.

    Add to that the disasters of worse conditions in the work camps and that 61billion isn't to light Pyongyang like Seoul it's to try and start dealing with the instant medical crisis.
    More freedom and TV isn't going to clear that up. It would take years of work to attempt to start dealing with the epidemics contained in that boarder.
    I am not even going to guess at the environmental disaster in those boarders either.

    This is why that huge figure. The way you have worded it you forget that many of the leadership in the northern army and upper class have blood on there hand blood that They don't want to answer for. In your scheme here you have just double talked made a pro and then walked it back.
    Because of the isolation leaders and players of the regime will do everything in the power to prevent that food from getting North to stop those medicines to reign in that freedom to point to that TV has lies. Some of them will be more successful than others and that is your Guerilla war.
    The South would need to make huge investments in infrastructure. Electrical, Sewage, roads, communications.
    Massive medical programs.
    Huge food deliverys.
    Provide security.
    Housing programs as many are homeless in the DPRK.

    And as to leadership... South Korea's President is not the administration you are looking for.
    The current president just signed a very very Pro North agreement last year with a ton of language contrary to your perspective.

    The South is not looking to invade and U.S. invasion would quickly bring the PRC in.
    As the PRC doesn't want US based on their Boarder. The North is a buffer for them.
    If the South invaded North on there own the PRC would probably be hands off but if the U.S. takes part all bets are off.
    Farther more the North has banked on this rhetoric. It's what allows the Kims to maintain power. For generations the Kims Kids have said the U.S is coming the West is coming. It allows them to ration, isolate, maintain a rain of terror.

    Personally the best bet to end North Korea is to let it collapse in its own.
    It may end up being a violent affaire or a coup but if the South had to come in and establish order it's better to do so with a willing participant.
     
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  7. Dook
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    Dook New Member
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    Any exposed artillery or missile would be identified by satellites in the days before the attack and taken out in the first strike. If the North has them underground, then they could move them outside but fire finder radar would identify the location of artillery and an airborne A-10 would be directed to take it out.

    Known ballistic missile sites would be attacked in the opening strike and Osprey's would already be on the way with special forces to capture those facilities.

    Chemical weapons material can't get into homes or bunkers with positive ventilation. If the people stay inside they will be fine unless the rocket hits their home directly. I never said there wouldn't be any SK casualties. What I'm saying is the North has attacked the South repeatedly and the South does nothing in return when they could eliminate the North quite easily.

    The North would be alerted? By what, the internet? Radio? If SK conducts practice alerts over and over and over again, something they should be doing anyway, then NK would be used to it. Anyway, there is nothing they can do because they don't have the technology. So what if they launch some of their Mig-21's. They will be shot down by F-35's and never even know the F-35's are there.

    Not everyone follows the civilian air raid drills? No, they don't. They have free will. There is no perfect scenario where no one in SK gets even a scratch. What I'm saying is this idea that war with NK would be "the mother of all battles" is incorrect. It would essentially be over in a day.

    It would take 61 billion dollars to fix NK? No. NK is stable now. They are supporting themselves now. They don't get any help from anyone now so how would it suddenly take $61 billion? And, once Korea becomes one the US and other countries would begin helping and trading. The sanctions would go away.

    The soldier had parasites because the NK children are taught to bring human excrement to school to be used as fertilizer on the crops. Once the leadership changes NK would be able to get fertilizer from SK and other countries.

    The population rarely sees doctors and is malnourised? They are but once a new leadership is installed the food would be distributed more evenly, less to Pyongyang and more to rural people. The people in Pyongyang have plenty of food. You can look at video's of westerners eating in restaurants in Pyongyang. And SK could send in some doctors and nurses to help. This isn't about building Rome in one day. It would take time but the NK people would have to do a lot of work themselves but with a better leadership.

    The NK military has blood on their hands? I think that SK would have to announce that any NK military generals and admirals who surrender and do not fight would get a reward once the war is over. If they order their men to fight then they will not get the reward and they become a target.

    I haven't walked back anything. I never said it would be bloodless or that NK has no capability whatsoever or that Seoul would not be hit at all. You assumed that. What I said was it would be mostly over in a day.

    Leaders and players of the regime will do everything to prevent food from getting North? WHAT? Who? China? You're saying China would invade Korea in order to keep Kim Jung Il in power?

    The South would make huge investments in infrastructure? They would make no investments in infrastructure. NK is stable now. Food in plentiful in Pyongyang but less in the rural areas. They have some electricity. They have some sewage, some roads, and some communications. NK doesn't have to become SK in a day. This is not about instantaneous modernization. It's about NK slowly catching up with the South over many years.

    No massive medical programs. No huge food deliveries. Security would be provided by SK troops for awhile. There are homeless in SK. You're thinking that once the war is over that SK has to instantly rebuild everything to SK standards. That's never happened. It took Japan and Germany many years to rebuild.

    SK President is not the leadership I am looking for? So your argument is that you should only do complicated things if everything goes perfect. Then you will never do anything. This is not the future.

    The SK President will not attack the North? I know he won't. They don't want the trouble. They will accept having some SK lose their lives to NK every year. I'm just saying this idea that the North is difficult to defeat is completely false.

    The PRC doesn't want the US on their border? We can't leave until the country is unified. We're not going anywhere until then.

    If SK invaded on their own China might not interfere? Maybe, I don't know. I don't think SK is ready to do it on their own yet. They need to get the 40 F-35's and they really need more of them than that. And about 300 cruise missiles.

    It's better to take over a country if the people are willing? It's relative. Do we wait until NK has more missiles and figures out how to put a nuclear weapon on top of them or do we go now with the advantage we have in cruise missiles, stealth bombers, F-35's, A-10's, F-16's, F-15's, and attack helicopters?
     
    #17 Dook, Jan 15, 2019
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 16, 2019
  8. antiterror13
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    antiterror13 Colonel

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    @Dook ... have you ever wonder why you haven't got any "likes" yet? ;)

    If NK easily get defeated .... it would have been done long time ago ..... like Iraq, Afghanistan, etc, etc ... the truth is .. is not easy and would be extremely costly for anybody
     
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  9. Dook
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    Dook New Member
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    You're all North Koreans?

    Here's why I don't have any likes, people don't like it when they are exposed. People like to think that they are smart even when they are not. People like to tell themselves that they are just as knowledgeable as someone else even when they haven't done the same amount of work. People like to think that because they were here first that they are more right than someone else who just got here. You think I'm supposed to fall in line and not have an opinion until I've followed you guys for a year or so. Sorry, I'm not your secretary. Why did you think I was going to be?

    I don't know anything about fashion design but I don't try to act like I do either so maybe if you don't know anything about NK then don't act like you do either. There are many other threads if you don't like this one.

    I have been to Korea twice and I've been to 13 other countries, most of them many times, and I'm a military tech nerd and I do way more book reading and research than pretty much anyone else. How come people come in to my topic and don't discuss the subject matter? That's called trolling yet I'm the one who is supposedly the troll in my own topic?

    What do a bunch of likes on the Sinodefenceforum get me? Not even a free McCoffee.

    Oh, you thought this website was Facebook or Google? It's barely getting enough hits to stay in operation. I'm sure the Chinese wouldn't allow it to go down though, they are getting too much good information from it.

    And NK was easily defeated until China entered the war. Truman stopped McArthur from using nukes otherwise we wouldn't have a divided Korea.

    You can ban me. Communists don't like it when others don't fall in line. You're only shooting yourselves in the foot.
     
  10. Air Force Brat
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    Air Force Brat Brigadier

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    Yep, he's right ya know!
     
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