North Korean plane crashes in China

siegecrossbow said:

I too think that the defection story is spotty at best, given Chinese treatment of past defectors. If he really wanted to defect why not fly to South Korea instead?

One other possibility is that the PLA is fully aware of the plane's intrusion ahead of times. They, however, decided to keep the true details of the incidence a secret. Could it be that the MIG was coming to China for a secret assessment/training mission but crashed due to low fuel/pilot error? It would be reasonable for China to cooperate militarily with North Korea given the escalating tension following the Cheonan Incidence.

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The South Korean border is MUCH more heavily guarded and patrolled by both sides, he would have had little chance of surviving such an attempt given that it is the single most heavily monitored and fortified border in the world.

Semi-Lobster said:

The South Korean border is MUCH more heavily guarded and patrolled by both sides, he would have had little chance of surviving such an attempt given that it is the single most heavily monitored and fortified border in the world.

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Well it is not like there is an entire fleet of MIG-21s heading towards the South Korean border. It is a lone plane! It could be, at worst, a reconnaissance plane and I really don't think that the superior South Korean Airforce should be intimidated by it. Besides isn't it customary to intercept planes violating one's airspace with interceptors rather than shooting them down? Remember all those "Bears" Russia's been sending to the Alaskan coast for the past few decades. How many were shot down?

On a less serious note I really don't think that the Russians will be receptive to aerial refugees from any nation, given how much embarrassment the German Cessna incident and the Chinese J-6 incident caused for the Russian air defence.

What about the possibility the pilot lost consciousness because of some systems failure and his fighter flew until it ran out of fuel?

I read one Chinese report said the crash site was 27KM away from Shenyang City's Dao Yuan Internatinal airport. It is a likely he was intending to land there, could be for emergency refuel since military aircraft normally don't use civilian international airport.

Also the theory that he may not be a defector could hold water as there was no Chinese interceptor flying with him, according to ground witness.

Re: New Chinese UAV

Fighter pilots are the elite of the KPAF, having one could give you a treasure trove of intelligence on politics, mood of fellow KPA officers and other HUMINT info.

China officially has a policy of repatriating NK defectors (it wouldn't be that hard to kick out the 200,000+ North Koreans lurking around in Manchuria, the repatriations they do are publicized to try to discourage further defections and to mollify Pyongyang a bit), but they would keep the valuable ones, especially military defectors.

Skywatcher said:

China officially has a policy of repatriating NK defectors (it wouldn't be that hard to kick out the 200,000+ North Koreans lurking around in Manchuria, the repatriations they do are publicized to try to discourage further defections and to mollify Pyongyang a bit), but they would keep the valuable ones, especially military defectors.

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What's so valuable about North Korean military defectors?

siegecrossbow said:

I too think that the defection story is spotty at best, given Chinese treatment of past defectors. If he really wanted to defect why not fly to South Korea instead?

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The reported air base is in the NW corner of North Korea. Going south would have required traversing almost the entire N-S distance of North Korea before the South Korean border. He would have been intercepted very quickly before he had a chance of reaching the South Korean border.

The thing is, a more direct route would probably would have put his course too close to the North Korean border, which I think he would want to avoid if he was defecting. He probably wanted to stay as far away from North Korean airspace to avoid the North Koreans bringing him down. Most likely he was heading to Russia using a longer way, or he was heading to Mongolia, which would also be a safe haven.

solarz said:

What's so valuable about North Korean military defectors?

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They are an invaluable insight into the North Korean regime.

zoom said:

Different situation i know but wasn't the USAF posted missing on 9/11 ?

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Indeed... but that was civilian aircraft and not a fighter... also that was not a foreign aircraft intruding into US airspace illegally. By the time the USAF had receive news of the hijacking, it was probably too late.

terrorhunter said:

a soviet mig-25 defected to japan in 1976. nothing was done too. it crash landed after it overshot a runway at an airport

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My friend... that was 1976... now it was 2010. Would you dare to try intruding into Japan's airspace with an obsolete Mig-21 or even a more sophisticated Su-27 or Su-33 and see if you would go by undetected.

Plus from the picture of the crashed fighter... it is quite clear that the fighter was not being hit. And according to the witness, the fighter was also not being dogged... because she didn't see any Chinese fighters or interceptors around chasing that lone Mig-21.

Also I would most probably reject the idea of a deflect... mainly because wouldn't the pilot have more chance if he actually try to cross the border on foot?

I would sure like to hear what the Chinese had to say and what the NK military had to say.

rhino123 said:

Also I would most probably reject the idea of a deflect... mainly because wouldn't the pilot have more chance if he actually try to cross the border on foot?

I would sure like to hear what the Chinese had to say and what the NK military had to say.

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Crossing on foot would be a terrible idea given how strictly the soldiers are monitored in North Korea. Besides, going out dodging anti-aircraft fire is probably more glamorous than getting shot wading across the Yalu.