North Korean plane crashes in China

Re: New Chinese UAV

terrorhunter said:

what makes you believe that the planes was not tracked? im pretty sure that they knew what it was way before the photos came out

Click to expand...

The standard procedure for most airforce around the world would be... if a foreign fighter jet entered your airspace would be to scramble one or two interceptors to intercept the fighter.

China did none of it... as seen from some of the news floating around the internet... there obviously is a witness that the small jet had crashed (note that there was no Chinese fighters or interceptors chasing it or escorting it).

This could show that either they are damn sure that

1) korean jet is going to crash,
2) They mistaken the korean jet as one of theirs (which is a massive blunder if that was the case),
3) the radar didn't trace or detected the fighter, or
4) The assessment was that this fighter is actually no threat at all... (which is also another blunder because irregardless of the threat level, it is an intrusion of a foreign jet illegally and so should be intercept!)

Take this incident and place it in the US and see what will happen. A foreign fighter jet intrude into the US airspace... and see if US would scramble F16s to intercept it or not... irregardless whether the jet is a deflect or with actual other intents.

Re: New Chinese UAV

rhino123 said:

The standard procedure for most airforce around the world would be... if a foreign fighter jet entered your airspace would be to scramble one or two interceptors to intercept the fighter.

China did none of it... as seen from some of the news floating around the internet... there obviously is a witness that the small jet had crashed (note that there was no Chinese fighters or interceptors chasing it or escorting it).

This could show that either they are damn sure that

1) korean jet is going to crash,
2) They mistaken the korean jet as one of theirs (which is a massive blunder if that was the case),
3) the radar didn't trace or detected the fighter, or
4) The assessment was that this fighter is actually no threat at all... (which is also another blunder because irregardless of the threat level, it is an intrusion of a foreign jet illegally and so should be intercept!)

Take this incident and place it in the US and see what will happen. A foreign fighter jet intrude into the US airspace... and see if US would scramble F16s to intercept it or not... irregardless whether the jet is a deflect or with actual other intents.

Click to expand...

This is pretty serious stuff. A foreign jet entering Chinese airspace without any acknowledgment by the military. When a Chinese J-6 defected to the Soviet Union it led to the firing of several senior officers in Siberia. I wonder if the same thing is going to happen now.

Since we are sure that this small plane is not a military UAV could a Mod please merge the relevant posts with the North Korean plane crash thread?

Re: New Chinese UAV

rhino123 said:

Take this incident and place it in the US and see what will happen. A foreign fighter jet intrude into the US airspace... and see if US would scramble F16s to intercept it or not... irregardless whether the jet is a deflect or with actual other intents.

Click to expand...

Different situation i know but wasn't the USAF posted missing on 9/11 ?

solarz said:

I guess the eject mechanism didn't work too well either...

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Given the state of the North Korean Air Force I wouldn't be too surprised if he didn't even know how to use it, North Korean pilots only fly 15-25 hours a YEAR due to aviation fuel shortages, he probably ran out of fuel and then got into a bunch of technical problems.

As sorry as I am for the pilot dieing trying to defect from North Korea, I wonder how it was possible for a fighter aircraft to fly 250 km into China without being intercepted. The crashed aircraft as far as I know showed no signs on the aircraft of damage (other than from the crash itself and the general poor condition the aircraft was in the first place)

Re: New Chinese UAV

rhino123 said:

The standard procedure for most airforce around the world would be... if a foreign fighter jet entered your airspace would be to scramble one or two interceptors to intercept the fighter.

China did none of it... as seen from some of the news floating around the internet... there obviously is a witness that the small jet had crashed (note that there was no Chinese fighters or interceptors chasing it or escorting it).

This could show that either they are damn sure that

1) korean jet is going to crash,
2) They mistaken the korean jet as one of theirs (which is a massive blunder if that was the case),
3) the radar didn't trace or detected the fighter, or
4) The assessment was that this fighter is actually no threat at all... (which is also another blunder because irregardless of the threat level, it is an intrusion of a foreign jet illegally and so should be intercept!)

Take this incident and place it in the US and see what will happen. A foreign fighter jet intrude into the US airspace... and see if US would scramble F16s to intercept it or not... irregardless whether the jet is a deflect or with actual other intents.

Click to expand...

a soviet mig-25 defected to japan in 1976. nothing was done too. it crash landed after it overshot a runway at an airport

How sure can we be that there was no intercept? If there was and the pilot was unconscious,then letting the plane crash may have been the better option to shooting it down.

Re: New Chinese UAV

I see a lot of knee jerk reactions and assumptions, but not a great deal of real analysis.

Lets assess what we know for a fact and what we can infer from that.

This was a military pilot, who must have given defecting a great deal of thought beforehand. The least of which would be if the defection was actually possible.

The pilot was killed so he obviously didn't eject. Sounds obvious, but that mean's his plan wasn't simply to fly across the boarder and bail out.

The range of the mig21 also rules out russia as the intended destination assuming the military pilot had even remotely accurate maps and knows how to read them - pretty safe assumptions i'm sure all will agree.

So the pilots wants to get into China and his destination should at least be within range of his home airbase. At least on paper. So why didn't he make it?

It could be his plane broke. That would be pretty unlucky and fairly unlikely, so ruling that and pilot error out, we are left with bingo fuel. But we already assumed that the pilot would have already worked out that he should have the range to reach his intended destination. That means the most likely explaination is that he did something that used up a lot more fuel than standard ferry flying. Im sure the more astute would have already guessed that NAP of the earth flying would havw burnt a lot more fuel than normal, and also has the added advantage of being able to help bypass long range ground based search radar. This explaination would also fit with the military background of the pilot, and the reasonable assumption that he is not a retard who didn't think it might be a risk go flyig high and level into Chinese airspace without an invite, because the korean boarder would be an area that the PLA has covered with ground based early warning radar and no one planning a defection would bet on modern search radars not being able to pick him up.

And just fyi, one of the more expensive ways drug dealers get drugs into America is using small light aircraft. Does the USAF detect and intercept every last one of them?

Re: New Chinese UAV

Or the pilot is still alive and the death angle is just a cover story to avoid any more complications with the "friends" in Pyongyang?

Re: New Chinese UAV

plawolf said:

I see a lot of knee jerk reactions and assumptions, but not a great deal of real analysis.

Lets assess what we know for a fact and what we can infer from that.

This was a military pilot, who must have given defecting a great deal of thought beforehand. The least of which would be if the defection was actually possible.

The pilot was killed so he obviously didn't eject. Sounds obvious, but that mean's his plan wasn't simply to fly across the boarder and bail out.

The range of the mig21 also rules out russia as the intended destination assuming the military pilot had even remotely accurate maps and knows how to read them - pretty safe assumptions i'm sure all will agree.

So the pilots wants to get into China and his destination should at least be within range of his home airbase. At least on paper. So why didn't he make it?

It could be his plane broke. That would be pretty unlucky and fairly unlikely, so ruling that and pilot error out, we are left with bingo fuel. But we already assumed that the pilot would have already worked out that he should have the range to reach his intended destination. That means the most likely explaination is that he did something that used up a lot more fuel than standard ferry flying. Im sure the more astute would have already guessed that NAP of the earth flying would havw burnt a lot more fuel than normal, and also has the added advantage of being able to help bypass long range ground based search radar. This explaination would also fit with the military background of the pilot, and the reasonable assumption that he is not a retard who didn't think it might be a risk go flyig high and level into Chinese airspace without an invite, because the korean boarder would be an area that the PLA has covered with ground based early warning radar and no one planning a defection would bet on modern search radars not being able to pick him up.

And just fyi, one of the more expensive ways drug dealers get drugs into America is using small light aircraft. Does the USAF detect and intercept every last one of them?

Click to expand...

Good point. However I am beginning to doubt the defection theory after I put more thoughts into it. Why would the North Korean pilot defect to China of all places? China has a tendency to deport defectors back to North Korea when they are discovered and I really don't think that the Chinese military will support him especially given the tense escalation in the Yellow Sea right now. It just doesn't make sense for him to travel to China. Why didn't he try defecting to South Korea, for instance?

Re: New Chinese UAV

Military defectors are different from the civilian ones because of the intelligence they provide, and a fighter pilot would be doubly more valuable to China. And besides, what's Kim Jong Il going to do if China takes him in?