North Korean Military.

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Scratch

Captain
Thanks Finn, I guess a lot depends on how fast the new leader can consolidate his power. I believe he won't do something too quick though, because if something is to change significantly, he will scare of the military top echolon. I think their position, and with that their well being, depends so much on the status quo, they'll be very reluctant to change things. They pretty much all got their hands dirty to get there, now they are in this together, that's how these systems work, IMO.
Now, if young Kim does something that could threaten their position, and he's not completely in charge, he might scare them enough so they overcome their collective fear of acting. I guess even a new Kim will have to check the situation by carefully analyzing his subordinates reactions etc.
There's so many variables in it that I think he'll try to solve his probles with time, slowly building up an inner circle he can trust. But I also believe his father has prepared him well, showing him how to manage the system.
Then, who knows what impact his swiss education will have.

With Kim visiting China twice this summer, I get a feeling though that China might be more important to the Kim dynasty than I thought. There's not much China can do anyway, they have to support NK one way or the other, so Kim might need to ensure Chinas support for his own family more than the country.
 
S

Scratch

Captain
More news coming out, the picture is becoming more and more clear. Kim met with chinese president Hu and made references regarding power transition.
I guess it's pretty clear now that the leadership will change soon. It probably depends on Kim's exact healt state how fast that will happen. But I believe that he is one holding on to power as long as possible, especially since his heir apparent is still really young and potentially without a big power base. So, I do suspect a rather quick transition of power.

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North Korea: Kim Jong-il hints at change of leader

North Korea has given the clearest hint yet that Kim Jong-il, its ’Dear Leader’, will be succeeded by his third and youngest son.

By Malcolm Moore, Shanghai - Published: 4:52PM BST 30 Aug 2010

The official North Korean news agency confirmed that the elder Kim had spent the weekend in China meeting Hu Jintao, the Chinese president.

In what may be an oblique reference to the succession process, the KCNA news agency also quoted Kim Jong-il, 68, telling a banquet that: “steadily developing the friendship [between North Korea and China] through the generations is an important issue in defending peace and security”.

He added that because North Korea finds itself in a difficult political situation, it was an “important historical mission” to hand the baton over to the “rising generation”. [...]

The elder Kim, who also voiced his willingness for North Korea to return to de-nuclearisation, needs China’s backing for any transition of power. “Kim would have reassured China that he is committed to de-nuclearisation in exchange for a clear backing by his ally [Hu Jintao] for his successor,” said Yang Moo Jin, a professor at the University of North Korean studies in Seoul. [...]

The elder Kim’s visit to China was clouded in secrecy until his train re-crossed the border into North Korea. At that point, Chinese television began to broadcast images of Kim looking slightly worn and limping slightly.
 
Spartan95

Spartan95

Junior Member
Interesting news coverage about the visit:

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China's Hu Jintao meets North Korea's Kim Jong-Il: state TV
Posted: 30 August 2010 1952 hrs

BEIJING: North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il told Chinese President Hu Jintao his nation was willing to return to nuclear disarmament talks and reduce tensions in northeast Asia, state media said Monday.

The two leaders met on Friday in the northeast city of Changchun as part of Kim's unofficial visit to China, China Central Television said in the first official announcement of his visit.

North Korea's stance on adhering to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula was unchanged, and the country "is not willing to see tensions on the peninsula," the report quoted Kim as saying.

Kim pledged to remain in close consultation with China and hoped for the "early resumption" of six-party disarmament talks that also include South Korea, the United States, Japan and Russia.

"China hopes ... that all sides will continue to place importance and make positive efforts to safeguard peace and stability and a nuclear-free peninsula," the report quoted Hu as saying.

"All sides should make efforts to resume the six-party talks as early as possible to ease the current tension."

As he entered the meeting room, the elderly Kim, looking slightly emaciated and wearing his trademark light brown suit, had a slight limp as he moved to the negotiation table.

During the meeting, he listened intently, his body slumped over table as North Korean officials flanked him on both sides.

The two leaders discussed the March sinking of a South Korean warship that left 46 sailors dead and a subsequent United Nation's statement condemning the incident, the report said.

An international panel backed by South Korea has blamed North Korea for the sinking, but Pyongyang has adamantly denied involvement.

Footage showed a stern-looking Hu urging Kim to push forward economic reforms and modernisation in North Korea.

Later, Kim was seen visiting a food processing factory, a high-speed train factory and an elementary school where his father, the late North Korean leader Kim Sung-Il, once went to school.

Kim's visit lasted from August 26-30, the television station said. According to the South Korea media, he has already returned to North Korea.

His previous visits have only been publicised after he has left China and returned to North Korea.

The secrecy-shrouded visit to China, the North's chief ally and benefactor, has been widely seen as an effort by Kim to seek Beijing's approval for an eventual transfer of power from the ageing leader to his youngest son Kim Jong-Un.

The younger Kim's name did not appear on a list read out by state television of North Korean officials attending the meeting with Hu.

- AFP/ir
Click to expand...

Wonder if the footage of a stern looking Hu is available on the internet.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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Staff member
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Spartan95 said:
Interesting news coverage about the visit:

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Wonder if the footage of a stern looking Hu is available on the internet.
Click to expand...

Hahaha he always look serious so I am pretty sure it is available.

I am very suspicious about young Kim's ability to rule. The only way for him to really maintain power is to follow the policy that his father set for him but I don't think that the North Koreans revere him as much as they revere his father and grand father. Just how long will Kim Jong Il's sacred halo will protect young Kim remains to be seen.
 
Spartan95

Spartan95

Junior Member
Well, here's a news clip that reported on Kim's visit to China. Not familiar with this Dragon TV, but since it is released, the coverage is likely to have been cleared.

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The news anchor did mention about Hu urging Kim to push ahead with economic reforms and modernisation.

Also, from the footage of Kim, I'm thinking he is starting to look like a zombie!
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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Spartan95 said:
Well, here's a news clip that reported on Kim's visit to China. Not familiar with this Dragon TV, but since it is released, the coverage is likely to have been cleared.

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The news anchor did mention about Hu urging Kim to push ahead with economic reforms and modernisation.

Also, from the footage of Kim, I'm thinking he is starting to look like a zombie!
Click to expand...

Zombie Kim Jong Il lol!!! When they come out with a Korean War COD game they should definitely add Zombie Kim gameplay.

Has Hu always pushed Kim about economical reforms or is this a new development?
 
Spartan95

Spartan95

Junior Member
siegecrossbow said:
Zombie Kim Jong Il lol!!! When they come out with a Korean War COD game they should definitely add Zombie Kim gameplay.
Click to expand...

I would love to see a Hollywood parody of a Zombie Kim!

siegecrossbow said:
Has Hu always pushed Kim about economical reforms or is this a new development?
Click to expand...

IIRC, the Chinese leadership has been urging DPRK to go ahead with economic reforms for some years now. The selling point was that China has successfully reformed her economy without having to reform the political system.

Such a proposition should have been attractive to Kim. But the lack of economic reforms in DPRK seems to indicate 2 possibilities (often mentioned by DPRK watchers):

1. Kim is unable to overcome the extreme right wingers in the DPRK leadership to undertake economic reforms.
2. Kim is worried about losing control over the populace once economic reforms start.
 
S

Scratch

Captain
The chinese really want NK to go ahead with economic reform for quite a while now. A slightly growing NK economy would allow NK to survive without continuous chinese aid, and it would stabilize NK in that the country would not be on the brink of economicly falling apart all the time.
And that is were China's base interest parly lies in, IMO. A somewhat self sufficient NK would be contiuous issue the US, SK and Japan would have to contend with, binding forces and resources. And it is be a buffer against the US / SK combo at the southern border.

I don't think the NK regime believes in the ideology any more. They are just afraid of potentially loosing their grip.
Plus, a year ago or so, they tried a currency reform actually, and that went badly wrong, increasing poverty even further. Didn't think that could be done actually.
So maybe NK is even more reluctant to change anything. And the chinese way of carefully opening up and allowing even selective freedom is against everyting that has kept the dynasty in power in the last 60yrs.

I guess China doesn't exspect anything from Kim anymore, but rather his son. Maybe he'll be more willing to listen and act. Perhaps that is why China's support is needed for the succession also. New Kim probably will have to overcome the old guard as well before presenting new ideas.
 
X

xywdx

Junior Member
I think there is a general deep rooted distrust for economic reforms in the NK government.

A family friend is doing business with NK, he invited a NK government official over for a visit, and she was very impressed with what she saw.

It turns out that she was so impressed that she made one or two careless comments that promptly got her jailed and "questioned" to see if she had been converted to a capitalist.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Scratch said:
I guess China doesn't exspect anything from Kim anymore, but rather his son. Maybe he'll be more willing to listen and act. Perhaps that is why China's support is needed for the succession also. New Kim probably will have to overcome the old guard as well before presenting new ideas.
Click to expand...

The sad thing about prince Kim is that his rule will be a tragedy no matter what he does. If he chooses to follow in the path of his father and grandfather it will be a tragedy for his country. North Korea will remain backwards and impoverished. If he chooses to reform it will be a personal tragedy since there is really no way for him to garner public support once the "family halo" of the Kims evaporates once and for all.
 
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