New York Times: Special Report

I think you're reading too much into the colonial versus non-colonial divide.

I think it's more accurate to use a vassal versus non-vassal distinction, because countries do have enough sovereignty to change their allegiances or to remain neutral. It may be painful but it is possible for the vast majority of countries.

An example of an exception would be somewhere like Bhutan, where India funds and trains the Bhutan Army and the Bhutan Police.
Bhutan has literally lost control of its internal and external sovereignty to India, which is the defacto colonial power.
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Anyway, so what we have is an international system where previously the USA was the largest actor from an economic and naval (trade) perspective. In the case of US/Japan, it was in the mutual interest to enter into a lord/vassal type relationship, where Japan was grandfathered/privileged into the existing system with the USA on top.

But now we have a situation where China has a larger economy than the USA in terms of actual output.
The National Science Foundation also reported that China was expected to pass the US in terms of technology R&D spending in 2018.
This means that China has the capacity to displace the USA in terms of economic attraction, especially to its neighbours in Asia.

China is also the world's largest trading nation and which sits at the centre of the Asian trading network.
That will still be the case even if Trump cuts off all US trade with China.
And historically, the world's largest trading nation builds the world's largest navy to protect its trade.
And the world's largest economy does have the resources to build such a navy.

So the existing US-led system is breaking down because of the Rise of China, and most countries in Asia don't want to get involved in a US-China competition, because they will suffer in the conflict and they don't know who will be the winner.

But in the coming decades, it should become obvious that China will come out on top of any military/economic conflict with the USA, and that China's neighbours would be better off aligning with China instead of the USA.

So as China continues to grow, it would be in China's interests to maintain the liberal trade/investment order, and also military freedom of navigation. Thereby replacing the US in the international order.

This is what is driving US-China tensions today

I think you're neglecting the nuance and driving power of colonialism and decolonization in an inaccurate attempt to simply focus on hard power.

The hard power of military and economic prowess are easy to claim to be quantifiable, and easy to misleadingly characterize as "lord-vassal" relationships.

However the soft power multipliers of hard power including propaganda, public perception, elite affinity, national or sub-national alignment, alliances and allegiances, are all heavily affected by historical and cultural factors strongly influenced by colonialism and decolonization.

It is indeed a "culture war" in the international arena today but it is not the "culture war" from the Western narrative which really refers to internal Western cultural evolution, but rather an evolution of the international system from one that is an oppressive Western oligarchy, with roots in the colonial era at this point in history dominated by the US, into one where other countries and cultures have more sway and more of the overall pie.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think you're neglecting the nuance and driving power of colonialism and decolonization in an inaccurate attempt to simply focus on hard power.

The hard power of military and economic prowess are easy to claim to be quantifiable, and easy to misleadingly characterize as "lord-vassal" relationships.

However the soft power multipliers of hard power including propaganda, public perception, elite affinity, national or sub-national alignment, alliances and allegiances, are all heavily affected by historical and cultural factors strongly influenced by colonialism and decolonization.

It is indeed a "culture war" in the international arena today but it is not the "culture war" from the Western narrative which really refers to internal Western cultural evolution, but rather an evolution of the international system from one that is an oppressive Western oligarchy, with roots in the colonial era at this point in history dominated by the US, into one where other countries and cultures have more sway and more of the overall pie.

Yes. Colonialism has left a lasting legacy on societal norms, so soft power is more effective.

But as China grows bigger, it should develop both the hard power and the soft power to reorient Asia in its direction, without having to conquer and occupy foreign lands.
 
Yes. Colonialism has left a lasting legacy on societal norms, so soft power is more effective.

But as China grows bigger, it should develop both the hard power and the soft power to reorient Asia in its direction, without having to conquer and occupy foreign lands.

That is indeed the road China is taking, trying to attract by example, with belated and so far not particularly successful attempts at developing soft power, without conquering and occupying foreign lands.

However China has also been on the receiving end of military coercion and lawfare, part and parcel of colonialism and its many persisting ways in today's international system, for a long time including unresolved territorial issues on its periphery where it has no choice but to push back in kind.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Yes. Colonialism has left a lasting legacy on societal norms, so soft power is more effective.

But as China grows bigger, it should develop both the hard power and the soft power to reorient Asia in its direction, without having to conquer and occupy foreign lands.

Soft power is a myth created for domestic consumption. Its purpose is to conceal to the general public the nefarious and immoral deeds committed to achieve power.

Do you think American influence comes from Hollywood? No, its influence comes from its economic wealth, which it builds and protects with military power and regime changes.

How many people admire India or Nigeria for their democracy? The US peddles its political system by tying it with prosperity, that is the central tenet of their political faith: to be rich, you have to be "free".

That's why China's prosperity is such a fundamental threat to the US. China demonstrates that the American model of politics is not the only option toward prosperity. This fundamentally undercuts the American narrative, and has shaken their influence both internationally and domestically.

Why do yo think Trump was elected? It was a response by a people experiencing cognitive dissonance. It is denial and anger on the stages of grief.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
The fact that the US fears a future where they cannot control China without going to war says China has the best kind of soft power. All the things the West fears about Made in China 2025 is about Chinese soft power. Everything they do to try to stop it makes them the bad guy because the crime they see is no problem if they do it. The only factor that makes it a crime is race. When the West first expressed their anxiety over Made Chine 2025, they said it wasn't about holding back China. What does that have to with their primary narrative that Made in China 2025 was about China stealing intellectual property to become the dominant player in the world. That's their spin in order to give themselves an excuse to stop China from advancing in technology that they may never develop first or ever. If the West were truly superior, no need to fear Made in China 2025 because China would never be ahead. If Chinese can only steal, China can't steal something that the West doesn't have first. Stopping China because they steal is a better excuse than stopping China because they might discover the cure for cancer. Discovering the cure for cancer equates to soft power. If the West can only provide humanity's needs, people are more protective of them.

How many people or countries' survival is dependent on the US? Their version of history dies without the US. What they think is important in this world gets ignored without the US. How may of those people or countries would lose their importance in the world if China rose to parity with the US? Even though China had no part in their history, naturally China would not care as much just as they didn't care about the Chinese. Many people fear China because they're afraid China will do in the future to them what they're doing to China right now. Acting like the Chinese don't exist or aren't important in the world. And no crime was committed on China's part and that's why they have to make up a crime in order to have an excuse to stop China. That's not soft power where they fear what China won't do for them?
 
D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
osr
Soft power is a myth created for domestic consumption. Its purpose is to conceal to the general public the nefarious and imrgoore orogmoral deeds committed to achieve power.

Do you think American influence comes from Hollywood? No, its influence comes from its economic wealth, which it builds and protects with military power and regime changes.

How many people admire India or Nigeria for their democracy? The US peddles its political system by tying it with prosperity, that is the central tenet of their political faith: to be rich, you have to be "free".

That's why China's prosperity is such a fundamental threat to the US. China demonstrates that the American model of politics is not the only option toward prosperity. This fundamentally undercuts the American narrative, and has shaken their influence both internationally and domestically.

Why do yo think Trump was elected? It was a response by a people experiencing cognitive dissonance. It is denial and anger on the stages of grief.

You are picking some very extreme example here, both Nigeria and India are wrecked with secretarian and extremist violence. But that does not apply to every single democratic state. Germany, France and Norway are on the complete polar opposite.
Whilst the US does often use hard power to further it's interests, it's soft power reserves also goes along way to help it as well. It was immigrants like Einstein and George Soros that gave the US much needed boosts in both innovation and economy. And these immigrants only came to the US in the first place because they admire the fact that they weren't going to persecuted on things that they themselves cannot help it. That is the kind of thing soft power is, it is something that is not easily calculated.
The recent spat of US issues happened in large part because US leadership though that soft power and admiration is something that can be taken for granted and/or is irrelevant. If the White House did not act all so hypocritically right after the Cold War, a lot of it's downfalls could very well be prevented. Threatening your allies is not the best thing to do if you are expecting their help on say Iran.
And finally, Trump being elected is perhaps ironically one of the biggest examples of US soft power/admiration still standing. That Trump is consistently hampered and obstructed in his megalomaniac and populist endeavors highlights even after he was elected highlights the fact : That nothing in the USA can be easily subverted or subsumed, either by both the politicians or the people. It is a slow system, but it works if properly employed.
On the issue of China, it is at a crossroads as of now. It prosperity while not untrue, is base largely on the fact that for the best part of 20 years it has been a developing nation and can still be considered as such to some extend even today. It had only began to engage the world in any meaningful capacity beyond being the general workshop/assembly house of the world. It's system has yet to experience the demands and strain of what a increasingly wealthy and sophisticated society generates.
If the Chinese leadership thinks that everything can be solved just by waving a fistful of money at the other's face, then they should not be surprise that they would find themselves in the same predicament as the US is right now.
 
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solarz

Brigadier
osr

You are picking some very extreme example here, both Nigeria and India are wrecked with secretarian and extremist violence. But that does not apply to every single democratic state. Germany, France and Norway are on the complete polar opposite.
Whilst the US does often use hard power to further it's interests, it's soft power reserves also goes along way to help it as well. It was immigrants like Einstein and George Soros that gave the US much needed boosts in both innovation and economy. And these immigrants only came to the US in the first place because they admire the fact that they weren't going to persecuted on things that they themselves cannot help it. That is the kind of thing soft power is, it is something that is not easily calculated.
The recent spat of US issues happened in large part because US leadership though that soft power and admiration is something that can be taken for granted and/or is irrelevant. If the White House did not act all so hypocritically right after the Cold War, a lot of it's downfalls could very well be prevented. Threatening your allies is not the best thing to do if you are expecting their help on say Iran.
And finally, Trump being elected is perhaps ironically one of the biggest examples of US soft power/admiration still standing. That Trump is consistently hampered and obstructed in his megalomaniac and populist endeavors highlights even after he was elected highlights the fact : That nothing in the USA can be easily subverted or subsumed, either by both the politicians or the people. It is a slow system, but it works if properly employed.
On the issue of China, it is at a crossroads as of now. It prosperity while not untrue, is base largely on the fact that for the best part of 20 years it has been a developing nation and can still be considered as such to some extend even today. It had only began to engage the world in any meaningful capacity beyond being the general workshop/assembly house of the world. It's system has yet to experience the demands and strain of what a increasingly wealthy and sophisticated society generates.
If the Chinese leadership thinks that everything can be solved just by waving a fistful of money at the other's face, then they should not be surprise that they would find themselves in the same predicament as the US is right now.

There's a lot of spin-doctoring in this post.

So now Nigeria and India are not "True Democracies", eh? Well, that's okay, because my point was that only wealthy democracies get held up as shining examples of "freedom", while poor democracies get forgotten or dismissed as "not true democracies".

Guess what? The economic prosperity of a nation is directly tied to its social stability. What you're effectively saying is that France and Germany are "True Democracies" because they're rich.

The US has its own political system. I have to laugh that you think it's such an accomplishment that Trump got elected, but can't do much. In China, someone like Trump would never be able to attain prominence in the first place. Instead of spending 4-8 years in virtual paralysis, China is able to select competent leaders and move the country forward.

You have a poor understanding of Chinese foreign policy if you think China just waves money at other people. On the contrary, that is the Western way of thinking, with its foreign aid tied to "human rights", and a myriad of NPOs that are more interested in showcasing the misery in Africa for fundraising than actually doing anything about it.

China, on the other hand, offers infrastructure projects instead of cash. As a gesture of good-will, China will offer to build, for free, buildings and roads. Those are things that directly benefit the local people, and which corrupt politicians find very difficult to siphon cash from.
 

solarz

Brigadier
What do you guys think about this article:
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Is it still an accurate depiction of Xi?

Too long, couldn't be bothered to read it all.

Really, who cares what Xi is like? All that matters is the results.

The article is dated from 2015. In it, it mentions how officials would flout the central government's edicts.

Well, that was 2015. This is 2018:

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D

Deleted member 13312

Guest
There's a lot of spin-doctoring in this post.

So now Nigeria and India are not "True Democracies", eh? Well, that's okay, because my point was that only wealthy democracies get held up as shining examples of "freedom", while poor democracies get forgotten or dismissed as "not true democracies".

Guess what? The economic prosperity of a nation is directly tied to its social stability. What you're effectively saying is that France and Germany are "True Democracies" because they're rich.

The US has its own political system. I have to laugh that you think it's such an accomplishment that Trump got elected, but can't do much. In China, someone like Trump would never be able to attain prominence in the first place. Instead of spending 4-8 years in virtual paralysis, China is able to select competent leaders and move the country forward.

You have a poor understanding of Chinese foreign policy if you think China just waves money at other people. On the contrary, that is the Western way of thinking, with its foreign aid tied to "human rights", and a myriad of NPOs that are more interested in showcasing the misery in Africa for fundraising than actually doing anything about it.

China, on the other hand, offers infrastructure projects instead of cash. As a gesture of good-will, China will offer to build, for free, buildings and roads. Those are things that directly benefit the local people, and which corrupt politicians find very difficult to siphon cash from.
Until they get another Mao, who gets all the cards and 0 objections to any policies he enact, despite how ridiculous it sounds.
 
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