Military situation in the sino-indian border

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
There are many things happening right now that is not in China's interest, I think they are all connected

1. Indonesia is stepping it its game in SCS, it recently just renamed its part of SCS to its own name.
2. Vietnam just said it will start join exploration of resources in SCS with India.
3. Japan is starting to butt in SCS once again with Vietnam.
4. More rapid patrol by US navy in SCS in recent month than ever before.
5. Korean nuclear crisis getting hot.
6. US congress 1 step closer to passes resolution to send warships to Taiwan + recent arms sale.
7. SK new president refuses to taking down SAAD
8. US selling drones to India
9. India US Japan navy exercise
10. And of course during all of this time, Indian occupy Chinese territory.

I have a strong feeling everything that I have listed is being mastermind by US, I think China don't want to fight right now, it wants to build up its Belt and Road, but if war happens everything will stop so China need to be careful

It looks like US don't want to fight China directly but it is pushing all of its neighbors to confront China, China can deal with any one of the situation on its own, but everything at once will be difficult.
This is the culmination of the US realizing it's running out of time to confront China from an advantageous point. This is the death throes of American dominance. It's now or never to do this; every day is on China's side. When time is up and China returns to the apex of global power, it wouldn't even be possible to make trouble for China. So as I said, China is doing its best to be patient and reserved, biding its time and growing its strength without taking this bait to lash out prematurely. When China's ready, the world will know. The little troublemakers will scramble for amnesty, and the US will know that its game in Asia is up. No violence, just peaceful transition of power in a world with MAD.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
There are many things happening right now that is not in China's interest, I think they are all connected

1. Indonesia is stepping it its game in SCS, it recently just renamed its part of SCS to its own name.
2. Vietnam just said it will start join exploration of resources in SCS with India.
3. Japan is starting to butt in SCS once again with Vietnam.
4. More rapid patrol by US navy in SCS in recent month than ever before.
5. Korean nuclear crisis getting hot.
6. US congress 1 step closer to passes resolution to send warships to Taiwan + recent arms sale.
7. SK new president refuses to taking down SAAD
8. US selling drones to India
9. India US Japan navy exercise
10. And of course during all of this time, Indian occupy Chinese territory.

I have a strong feeling everything that I have listed is being mastermind by US, I think China don't want to fight right now, it wants to build up its Belt and Road, but if war happens everything will stop so China need to be careful

It looks like US don't want to fight China directly but it is pushing all of its neighbors to confront China, China can deal with any one of the situation on its own, but everything at once will be difficult.

None of that is news, indeed, much of it was the cornerstone of the Hillbama era 'pivot', which basically consistent of the US stirring up everyone in the SCS with any territorial claims to go on a land grabbing rampage, which the US turns a blind eye to. And instead only comment about Chinese reactions to those land grabs to paint China as the bad guy.

It was all supposed to culminate in a Eastern-NATO military alliance, cemented by the TPP economic block, all designed to counter China.

With Chinese quiet but effective diplomacy, and American diplomatic implosion under Trump, all that are left are splinters and reminants of what would have been a comprehensive strategy.

In effect, China, with massive help from Trump, has already broken most of those US orchestrated efforts.
 

sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think China is out of the clear yet, most of the challenge that I listed are hard to ignore, if China decide to deal with it with military force then it will get painted as the aggressor no matter who its at fault, and if China don't react it will only embolden the enemies as they take even more actions.

When you are cornered by a bunch of school yard bully, the best strategy is to pick the weakest one and beat him up badly in front of others, so everyone will back off.

Or Maybe China is smart enough to indirectly threaten each of those country's other core interest for them to back off, either way something has to be done.

Lets see how China deal with it, so far I'm seeing China have stopped pressuring NK issue, maybe they are using NK crisis to hold leverage over US and SK, and maybe they are also contributing to the recent flair up in Kashmir, Xi's recent close meeting with Putin and Merkle might also be part of the move. I'm sure there are also a lot of other background deals being done, low interest loans, infrastructure investment etc...

Or maybe its time to create some more leverage in other new places to distract the enemy as well, I'm thinking giving massive support to Cambodia to counter Vietnam, as well as doing the same to India's neighbors etc... but China has to be careful that it does not get too sucked into long term obligations that only draws their energy long term.

A game of chess and weiqi is being played right now, let's see if China can out maneuver their enemies without firing a shot, I have confidence they can achieve this.
 
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I don't think China is out of the clear yet, most of the challenge that I listed are hard to ignore, if China decide to deal with it with military force then it will get painted as the aggressor no matter who its at fault, and if China don't react it will only embolden the enemies as they take even more actions.

When you are cornered by a bunch of school yard bully, the best strategy is to pick the weakest one and beat him up badly in front of others, so everyone will back off.

Or Maybe China is smart enough to indirectly threaten each of those country's other core interest for them to back off, either way something has to be done.

Lets see how China deal with it, so far I'm seeing China have stopped pressuring NK issue, maybe they are using NK crisis to hold leverage over US and SK, and maybe they are also contributing to the recent flair up in Kashmir, Xi's recent close meeting with Putin and Merkle might also be part of the move. I'm sure there are also a lot of other background deals being done, low interest loans, infrastructure investment etc...

Or maybe its time to create some more leverage in other new places to distract the enemy as well, I'm thinking giving massive support to Cambodia to counter Vietnam, as well as doing the same to India's neighbors etc... but China has to be careful that it does not get too sucked into long term obligations that only draws their energy long term.

A game of chess and weiqi is being played right now, let's see if China can out maneuver their enemies without firing a shot, I have confidence they can achieve this.
Well, they're not out of the clear yet in the sense that they don't have perfect solutions to these challenges, but these challenges are more annoying than they are dangerous (except the Korean situation, which is why China has prioritized that). None of them threatens China's rise or aggregation of strength and the tilt of the balance of power towards China. China's still gaining/fortifying ground in the SCS, Taiwan is still not going anywhere and there is still no meaningful/gainful endgame for India.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I don't think China is out of the clear yet, most of the challenge that I listed are hard to ignore, if China decide to deal with it with military force then it will get painted as the aggressor no matter who its at fault, and if China don't react it will only embolden the enemies as they take even more actions.

China will always face problems so long as America has the military capabilities to post a threat to China. It's in their nature that they just cannot cope with anyone else being independent enough to have their own opinion and strong enough that the US cannot slap them around as and when it feels like, as has happened innumerable times throughout its short existence. Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan merely being the most recent examples. But that is a very different discussion best left unsaid for now.

When you are cornered by a bunch of school yard bully, the best strategy is to pick the weakest one and beat him up badly in front of others, so everyone will back off.

The strategy you described will work. There are plenty of smart people who think China could really use a small, high-intensity and high-tech war to add the proverbial stick to its diplomatic Arsenal, which has thus far been lacking.

Most of the countries making trouble will fall in line neat as you like if China beat the living daylights out of someone, thus showing it has both the military capability and political will to use said military when pushed.

The problem is that such an opportunity has simply not arosen.

It's fairly easy to find a pretext if you really want to fight a war, however, because the western media is absolutely going to be against China. China need an ironclad case for war that even he western media cannot spin as China's fault convincingly, but no one has thus far been stupid enough to push China far enough for that to happen.

Probably because China has done a very good job of educating others just what a bad idea that is in decades past.

India came close recently, but China was/is pre-occupied with Korea, and frankly, the scale of the Indian transgressions is simply too small for China to want to bother.

Killing a few dozen or even few hundred Indian grunts won't achieve the kind of goals China needs from such a war. It either needs to be on a scale of a re-run of 1962 (but that would require China to divert too much resources and risk tempting Trump to see that as an opportunity to start something in Korea), or naval engagement with a top naval force.

I think if they could choose, the PLA would prefer a naval engagement, as it can comfortably take out a USN CSG sized hostile fleet with minimal to no loss on its home turf, which will create the kind of impact it needs while minimising the risk of uncontrolled escalation.

India and Japan best tread carefully in the SCS is my advice to them.

However, if there is ever an universal truth when it comes to war, it is that war, no matter how well executed and planned, always have unintended consequences. One should always stand ready to fight to defend oneself and one's own interests. However, only the foolish would actively court conflict.

Just look at America. All its recent wars of choice have gone badly for them, and always produced results very different from what they originally wanted.

China's own recent history provides a similar conclusion. When China was fighting because it was genuinely threatened, the outcomes tended to be positive (Korea, India, Russia). However, wars of choice tended to be less beneficial (Vietnam), and tended to have negative unintended consequences (current Vietnamese boldness).

Or Maybe China is smart enough to indirectly threaten each of those country's other core interest for them to back off, either way something has to be done.

It's more nuanced than just threatening, it's a combined carrot and stick approach, with heavier emphasis on the carrot.

A game of chess and weiqi is being played right now, let's see if China can out maneuver their enemies without firing a shot, I have confidence they can achieve this.

Indeed, a new great game is afoot, and has been for decades. We can only see a tiny fraction of what is going on, but even from that tiny glimpse, it's pretty obvious to see that China is winning.
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
As I said before watch for logistic Eisenhower was chosen to lead the European theater because of his logistic expertise
China is moving large amount of supplies to Tibet
China is taking seriously the recent stand off in Doklam with built up, The well built transportation network will enable China to move large quantity of supplies easily to Tibet an advantage that India doesn't have
Amateur talk about strategy and flashy weapon but professional talk about logistic
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Was China’s military drill in Tibet really just an exercise in logistics?

Thousands of tonnes of equipment have been moved into the region since the start of a border dispute with India

PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 18 July, 2017, 6:35pm

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15 Jul 2017
China has moved tens of thousands of tonnes of military vehicles and equipment into Tibet since it became locked in a border dispute with India, according to state media.

The vast haul was transported to a region south of the Kunlun Mountains in northern Tibet by the Western Theatre Command – which oversees the restive regions of Xinjiang and Tibet, and handles border issues with India – the PLA Daily, the official mouthpiece of China’s military reported.

The project took place late last month and involved hardware being moved simultaneously by road and rail from across the entire region, the report said.

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On Monday, state broadcaster CCTV reported that Chinese troops had taken part in a military exercise using live ammunition on the Tibetan plateau. The location was not far from where Chinese and Indian forces remain locked in a stand-off over a disputed border area at the tri-junction with Bhutan.

The PLA Daily report did not say whether the movement of the military equipment was to support the exercise or for other reasons.
Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military commentator, suggested it was most likely related to the stand-off and could have been designed to bring India to the negotiating table.

“Diplomatic talks must be backed by military preparation,” he said.

Another observer told the South China Morning Post earlier that the show of strength was likely a warning to India.

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“The PLA wanted to demonstrate it could easily overpower its Indian counterparts,” said Beijing-based military commentator Zhou Chenming.

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Wang Dehua, an expert on South Asia studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said the scale of the troop and equipment movement showed how much easier it now was for China to defend its western borders.

“Military operations are all about logistics,” he said. “Now there is much better logistics support to the Tibet region.


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In a reference to a comment made by India’s defence minister Arun Jaitley that “this is not India in 1962”, Wang added that “China is also different from [how it was in] 1962”.

Despite China’s military superiority in the Sino-Indian border war of 1962, logistics difficulties contributed to it pulling back and declaring a unilateral ceasefire.


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Now, however, the military can “easily transport troops and supplies to the frontline, thanks to the much improved infrastructure including the Qinghai-Tibet railway and other new roads connecting the plateau to the rest part of China”, Wang said.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
If China scared of large scale war that will wipe out years of economic gain then psychologically it already lost. No, more economic advancement and military gain will not make opponents capitulate or compromise if without the will to risk ALL. Small minded people always talk about trade surplus and brag about it are sissy people and do not have what it take to get it done. What's missing in China is Maoism,willing to risk it all mentality .
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
And it's really pathetic for some people who think time goes by , China will eventually achieve what it needs. No, China needs certain breakthrough, more time do not guarantee it will achieved. A lot of sectors in China are monopolized by foreign companies, if China does not have guts to take them down then it will continue like this and no breakthrough can be had. Status quo. More trade surplus ain't gonna do it.
 

vesicles

Colonel
If China scared of large scale war that will wipe out years of economic gain then psychologically it already lost. No, more economic advancement and military gain will not make opponents capitulate or compromise if without the will to risk ALL. Small minded people always talk about trade surplus and brag about it are sissy people and do not have what it take to get it done. What's missing in China is Maoism,willing to risk it all mentality .

You have seriously underestimated Mao's strategic wisdom. Mao was not willing to "risk it all". Mao was very hesitant of getting involved in the Korean War. However, after careful calculation, war was the best option to them. They had no choice but to fight at the time. Why? Because China at the time had no other cards in its pocket and had nothing to offer and to negotiate. The only option is to fight to gain something so that they could negotiate. The entire Korean War was about getting enough chips to go to the negotiation table. So to Mao, it was still all about negotiation, not about "risking it all".

However, now is completely different. China has many cards to use and many chess pieces to play with. Unlike in the 1950's, war is no longer the only option for China.
 
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