Military situation in the sino-indian border

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by kroko, Oct 6, 2016.

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  1. weig2000
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    weig2000 Junior Member

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    From Neville Maxwell, author of "India's China War."

     
  2. manqiangrexue
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    manqiangrexue Junior Member

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    Just saw this part; you must have added it after I replied so I didn't see it. That's not true. Whether or not you can use trade as a weapon to twist other people's arm depends NOT on the surplus or deficit but it depends on 2 things.

    1. Whether the item you are selling is essential to the economy/normal operations of that country. (ie. rare earths were essential to Japan's economy and thus Japan was susceptible to Chinese unofficial embargo.)

    2. How competitive/efficient your operations are. For example, if China can make smart phones for $200 and the next best competitor can do it for $201, then China has little to no power over say the American companies that outsource there. The US can threaten to move their lines to twist China's arm. Being that the factory is only average in efficiency, the demand to pick up such a factory won't be high and those workers may be jobless for some time. On the other hand, if China can make smart phones for $200 but the nearest competitor needs $400, then China can twist America's arm by threatening to kick its operations out of China and cut deep into their profits potentially making American smart phones noncompetitive on the global market. Sure, those Chinese cellphone factories will still be "shut down", but remember, if they're super-competitive, the demand for such a factory will be very high and other companies would jump at the chance to snap it up; maybe foreign, maybe domestic.
     
    #222 manqiangrexue, Jul 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2017
  3. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Senior Member

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    If any body know about the border between India and China, Neville maxwell is the man. He is the first who broached that Nehru forward policy cause the 62 war. And He was imploring the GOI to release the report by general Henderson to expunge the devil of "stab in the back and innocent India attack by wild Chinese" argument
    He know the story of India China relation from the very beginning. A wise man indeed

     
    #223 Hendrik_2000, Jul 17, 2017
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  4. Hendrik_2000
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    Hendrik_2000 Senior Member

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    Lhasa Gonggar airport. Anybody know which brigade it is? J 10 or J 11B?. I count 14 plane
    No description on Scramble site It says Lhasa it temporary field can be any regiment from other place
    I saw both J10 and J 11B operating from Gonggar

    [​IMG]
     
    #224 Hendrik_2000, Jul 17, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2017
  5. AssassinsMace
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    AssassinsMace Senior Member

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    China wasn't suppose to beat back the US in the Korean War. The Chinese were spent and had an inferior army yet routed the US. Isn't that a hole? If you guys can win so easily against China why don't you start the war right now? Uncertainty? Too afraid to take on North Korea yet somehow taking on China is less risky?
     
  6. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Junior Member
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    Because China have too much trade surplus and US knows it has leverage over China. It can pressure China to do things. That's why I say to the other guy depending on exports and having big trade surplus is not a good things. People will arm twisting you for that and know you won't fight back too much for sake of trade surplus
     
  7. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Junior Member
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    China cannot plan war ahead without thinking of controlling Indian ocean.

    For starter, it needs stealth fighters on Carrier and a fleet of SSN 093b or 095 prowling the ocean along with other surface combatant ships.
     
  8. kriss
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    kriss New Member
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    I think Pakistan would be more than happy to let PLAAF use some of their airbase to give India some trouble. Also china has naval base in Djibouti and potentially Pakistan. If this standoff doesn't turn war soon these base would be operational when the conflict starts. Submarine is the biggest threat. Though I don't know exactly how effective is PLAN ASW capablity there is one surface task force accompanied by submarines in Indian Ocean at any given time. I also don't think that's even close to their limit of naval projection capablity.

    I agree with tidal that it's too much risk to go to war with India without control of India Ocean but I think that's doable for China and we should keep tracking development in these areas so we can have some clue before things escalate (though we can do nothing to change it).
     
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  9. plawolf
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    plawolf Senior Member

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    I can't believe the nonsense I am reading, another one goes on the ignore list then. :rolleyes:

    Anyone who think India can mount any sort of blockade on China simply does not grasp the most basic fundamentals of how international trade works.

    Chinese flagged ships do not exclusively carry cargo bound to/from China, and a great bulk of China bound cargo is carried on foreign flagged ships.

    Even if we ignore the giant question mark of whether India actually has the military capability to enforce a blockade of shipping in the Indian Ocean in the face of PLA opposition, the simple reality of how world trade works means that for India to have any chance of trying to disrupt Chinese trade, they would have to effectively cut off ALL trade through the Indian Ocean.

    There is also the inconvenient fact that trade is a two-way street. India attacking Chinese shipping won't just upset China, it will also upset the countries who bought and paid for the goods on those ships, and who's economic and social welfare depend on that trade.

    Then it won't be a simple matter of India vs China, it will be India vs the rest of the world.

    For a blockade to work, you either need massive political, financial and military capabilities far beyond what India could dream of aspiring to; or you need geographical chock points.

    And no, places like the Indian Ocean or Malacca Strait don't work well as chock points against China because of how far away they are from China and how much international trade goes through there.

    Unless you want to stop world wide free trade, and have the military power and the political will to fight the rest of the world to do it, you just can't mount an effective blockade of China through those far away chock points.

    That is why the US spent all that time and political capital trying to stir things up in the South China Sea - because that would be an ideal place to mount such a blockade against Chinese seaborne trade.

    The USN already owns the Indian Ocean, if it was such a simple matter to blockade China through there, why would they have bothered with the SCS? Conversely, if even the USN is looking at the SCS for a far better way to try and threaten Chinese seaborne trade, what makes anyone think the far punier Indian Navy can do any better in the Indian Ocean?

    If anything, Indian attempts to threaten Chinese seaborne trade in the Indian Ocaen would actually only serve to give the PLAN the perfect pretext and opportunity to enforce a blockade of Indian seaborne trade.

    All the PLAN needs to do is deploy its subs to covertly lay minefields within 200km (not a set-in-stone figure, and can be more or less depending on need and circumstance) of Indian ports. Declare that as necessary to protect international free trade from Indian attacks, and civilian shipping to India simply stops.

    International shipping can use the Indian Ocean without disruption by simply staying 200km from the Indian coast so international ire would be limited. Especially since Indian world trade is so tiny in comparison to China.

    However, no insurance company would touch any ship wanting to dock at an Indian port because of the mine threat, and without insurance, no skipper would agree to take a freight job to India, especially with a very real mine threat.
     
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  10. Jura
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    Jura Senior Member

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    I'll attach a Like here just because I peruse that map,
    to show the actual areas possibly claimed by China in the region where the recent events took place
    (which is NOT in 'Doklam Plateau' shown in the above map (by the way I saw this mistake made even in some The Guardian article), but it's in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doklam):

    claim #1, based on the map broadcasted in Chinese TV Thursday at 6:47 AM
    ROUGHLY 30 square miles
    (now I deleted the map here, which would show my measurement, as
    I realized there's the limit of five Images in one post, but if you think I'm bluffing, just call it out)
    which I marked off in pink (middle-left part of the map below):
    [​IMG]


    claim #2, based on historic-Tibet border which I found myself Friday at 9:10 PM
    would mean VERY ROUGHLY additional (adding to #1 above, of course) 120 square miles (I don't show my measurement again due to the limit on Images); the whole possible claim is marked off in purple in the map below:
    [​IMG]

    my point is these about 150 square miles are (I didn't check if completely) in
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jigme_Khesar_Strict_Nature_Reserve
    which is an area with no permanent population (I'm not saying this just because the webpage says that, but because for perhaps ten (?) minutes in total I was looking at the Torsa River valley up to the ridges and back to the river on both its banks; plus I've noticed the valley to the east is different in this respect:
    [​IMG]
    I "found" that valley while checking the 1876 map Friday at 9:10 PM: I played it safe, took it from Darjeeling to that area)

    I mean all I saw in the Torsa valley was an Yeti ... but it's clear to me those two and a half billion people will soon destroy it
    you know, I look at those places so that in the future I can tell my grandkid, if I ever have one, like
    See that highway over the river? When I was still young (LOL), there was nothing but a forest there

    it's kinda sad to me, but you have fun in this thread LOL noticed 'generic Viagra', 'badgers in China', nukes, shipping lines, 'advance on Delhi' (by the way if I had visited an Indian forum, I would've seen
    'advance on Beijing' I guess) all brought in here, so cheers!
     
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