JH-7/JH-7A/JH-7B Thread

[Deino]

IMO JH-7B or its improved model can replace J-7s or Q5s. Jh-7B may have some upgrades and may be tailored to fukfill different roles to replace J-7s. A modified version may also replace Q5s. When PLAAF/PLAN is satisfied with J-11d and J-16 and able to manufacture 175+ annualy, they would be used to augment/replace older Su-27/J-11a/J-11bs.
When J-11d/J-16 induction reaches to 1000s then J-7s may replaced.
It all depends upon performance of J-11D/J-16 as well as J-20/J-31 and their integration into the PLAAF/PLAN.

Sorry, but please stay realistic ! These are only utter fan-boy wishes .... a production rate of 175 is simply unrealistic. If You compare the production rate for the J-10B at CAC, we have now 3 per month or 36 per year and I think SAC only has a similar rate ... in regard to the J-11-versions even lower during the last years.

As such a rate of 175 per year = nearly 15 per month ... simply forget it, or SAC will have to manufacture Flankers for the next 28 years. As a consequence - and again more fan-boy-dreaming that based on PLAAF/PLANAF-requirements - the PLA will never introduce 1000 J-11D and J-16, not even if You include the J-15).

Therefore I honestly beg You to think before You post ...

Deino

 

[janjak desalin]

(...) .... a production rate of 175 is simply unrealistic. If You compare the production rate for the J-10B at CAC, we have now 3 per month or 36 per year and I think SAC only has a similar rate ... in regard to the J-11-versions even lower during the last years. (...)

despite what are overly enthusiastic projections, I think that commenter Melcane just might be onto something.

I am waiting, myself, to observe which platform will become China's analog to the US F-4 Phantom and the Soviet Mig-23. These were the 3rd generation fighters that each produced in the greatest quantities and were the platforms that preceded the very capable F-14 and F-15 and the Su 27 and Mig-29. The production run of the F-4 ran from ~'58 to '81 and totaled 5,195 units and the Mig-23 from ~'67 to '85 totaling 5,047 units (according to wikipedia's sources.) Now, for the sake of comparison, let's say that the production runs were at a level pace. Doing so puts F-4 production at ~ 19 units per month and Mig-23 production at 23 units per month per month.

I'm well aware that these rates of production were accomplished at the height of both the Cold War and the 20th century's economic boom. Nevertheless, what I'm emphasizing is that these production runs heralded the advent of each nation's truly great platforms. I guess I'm suggesting that I think it necessary for the Chinese military aircraft industry (amongst others) to cut its teeth on a truly ambitious production run in order to join the big leagues of research, development, and production. I'd love to see at least one program shoot for a goal of ~6 - 8 units per month/ 72 - 96 per year. That would be awesome! And, even more so if that platform would happen to be the J-20!

But, hey, I could well be mistaken!

 

[delft]

despite what are overly enthusiastic projections, I think that commenter Melcane just might be onto something.

I am waiting, myself, to observe which platform will become China's analog to the US F-4 Phantom and the Soviet Mig-23. These were the 3rd generation fighters that each produced in the greatest quantities and were the platforms that preceded the very capable F-14 and F-15 and the Su 27 and Mig-29. The production run of the F-4 ran from ~'58 to '81 and totaled 5,195 units and the Mig-23 from ~'67 to '85 totaling 5,047 units (according to wikipedia's sources.) Now, for the sake of comparison, let's say that the production runs were at a level pace. Doing so puts F-4 production at ~ 19 units per month and Mig-23 production at 23 units per month per month.

I'm well aware that these rates of production were accomplished at the height of both the Cold War and the 20th century's economic boom. Nevertheless, what I'm emphasizing is that these production runs heralded the advent of each nation's truly great platforms. I guess I'm suggesting that I think it necessary for the Chinese military aircraft industry (amongst others) to cut its teeth on a truly ambitious production run in order to join the big leagues of research, development, and production. I'd love to see at least one program shoot for a goal of ~6 - 8 units per month/ 72 - 96 per year. That would be awesome! And, even more so if that platform would happen to be the J-20!

But, hey, I could well be mistaken!

Numbers change with the times. Around 1800 RN had around a thousand admirals and many more ships. I understand the number of admirals is now much less, but that the number of ships is now lower than the number of admirals.

 

[Jeff Head]

despite what are overly enthusiastic projections, I think that commenter Melcane just might be onto something.

The entire focus and point of his post would require a completely unattainable production rate of aircraft...as Deino so astutely pointed out.

Therefore, he was not really on to something from that perspective.

As to what aircraft the PRC is going to produce in large numbers? IMHO, the flanker variants (J-11, J16) as a whole, and the J-10 variants are going to be the largest numbers for the foreseeable future.

 

[janjak desalin]

(...)Therefore, he was not really on to something from that perspective.(...)

Dominance is inherent; it doesn't require hyper-vigilant aggression. That which does is domination; there are qualitative, moral, and philosophical differences between the two and only one is contestable.

 

[Jeff Head]

Dominance is inherent; it doesn't require hyper-vigilant aggression. That which does is domination; there are qualitative, moral, and philosophical differences between the two and only one is contestable.

What's your point?

How does any of that relate in the least to the thread?

Is it meant to be a subjective statement of your opinion about me?

If so, the old saying about water off of a duck's back comes into play.

Whatever. The premise for the original comment was based on fallacy, as Deino pointed out.

That's all.

 

[A.Man]

A JH-7A Photo

 

[Deino]

Interesting ! What type of bomb is the one in front ??

 

[duskylim]

In the end, I foresee that Xian will not get any more orders for the JH-7A, rather it will spend most of its time just upgrading the existing aircraft to a more modern standard.

The success of the J-15, J-16 and their various analogues will doom future JH-7 orders.

Pity, a good effort by Xian during the very difficult period in China's military aircraft development.

Like the J-8, JF-17 and J-10 it had a prolonged and difficult development due to lack of money and expertise. As these conditions changed so did the aircraft projects of the PLAAF.

Now its just part of the learning curve.

 

[SinoSoldier]

In the end, I foresee that Xian will not get any more orders for the JH-7A, rather it will spend most of its time just upgrading the existing aircraft to a more modern standard.

The success of the J-15, J-16 and their various analogues will doom future JH-7 orders.

Pity, a good effort by Xian during the very difficult period in China's military aircraft development.

Like the J-8, JF-17 and J-10 it had a prolonged and difficult development due to lack of money and expertise. As these conditions changed so did the aircraft projects of the PLAAF.

Now its just part of the learning curve.

It's eerie how most PLAAF aircrat have never and probably will never see combat.