Japan will be capable of intercepting ballistic missiles of China?

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
That's not really true. Look how innovative Nazi Germany was. This is one myth that is perpetuated by the conservative right wing and it is simply not true. The Soviet Union was in fact quite innovative, and it beat the US in a number of firsts. In fact, I find the SU weapons systems to be rather surprisingly innovative, and they're certainly not afraid to pursue bold concepts.

A good example is the US vs. SU sub projects. The SU sub projects are in fact, more innovative. They got subs that are built with titanium and dive deeper, and more willing to experiment in designs which you can see with the sheer variety, like the Alfa, Typhoon and Oscar classes.

The US sub program on the other hand is the one described by the Russians themselves to be "authoritarian" and "Stalinist" because of Admiral Rickover. But then there was nothing wrong with that approach either. It was because of Rickover's "Stalinist" rule over the US sub program that there is strict rationalization and standards. Rather than trying out every design under the sun, the US sub program was conservative and very rational. But it payed off in the end by saving lives and proving the technology.

This also underlines the fact that just because your government is authoritarian, does not mean that your military development programs run the same way. And just because your government is a democracy does not meant that your military development runs the same way either.

As for the dual use technologies, what makes you think they are all American in the first place. Americans do not have monopolies in dual use technologies, far from it, especially when you are now depending on microcircuits imported from all over Asia. China developed its technologies not just from the Americans, but from the Europeans as well as from Japan, S. Korea, and not the least of all, Taiwan.

The Communist Party of China will not share the same fate as the Soviet Union did. The CCP is Communist by name only. In reality, it works like a national super corporation. It is in fact, an ultra capitalist state, where even the government is out to make money. LOL it rents out the People's Hall in Beijing to Ford or Volkswagen for them to introduce new car models. Why don't you try that with the US Congress building?

Now I wonder if you actually work in a company, because companies themselves are not democratic. From top to bottom, the Communist Party has in fact become China Inc. The Party members become the Stockholders, the People's Congress becomes the stockholder's meeting, and the board of directors becomes the CCCP or CMC. And China's president is in fact, either the Chairman or the CEO. As for the mayors, governors, etc,. they have become midlevel managers or vice presidents of departments. Each becomes accountable for their bottomline. Do you know that a mayor of a Chinese city is actually accountable for the direct economic progress of the city, like its GDP?

So in one hand, you have a US Congress and governent that is all out to tax and spend money, and so by doing faces yearly deficits. On the other hand, you have a government that is out to make money by all means possible and are full of tech savy technocrats. Who do you think will last in the end? Sometimes I wonder in fact, if its Capitalism itself as well as the social consequences of information technology may sound the death knell of democracy, leading to the rise of the Super-Corporate states like so many envisioned in Science Fiction.

Probably the most important event that took place in China in 2007 isn't the ASAT test, or showing those sub boomers. The PPP GDP revision means nothing, given that it is actually sponsored and acted in cooperation with the Chinese authorities, you wonder if there is an ulterior motive for it (China still wants to get the third world underdog symphathy and don't want to look too rich). The real big event, and quite symbolic is the birth of the trillion dollar corporation (Petro-China?), even though its all stock paper value. But all that may still even rise some more. The collusion of ultra-mega corporations + authoritarian state means eventually mean in the long term, the formation of super corporate states.

I am sorry for talking politics. But I am a cynic and rather Darwinian.
 

Troika

Junior Member
China is only competitive in tech at the moment because the US has allowed China to create an economy based on "virtual automation" (aka paying factory workers wages so low as to be as cheap as highly automated factories the Americans could build for them selfs. Without the ability for the Americans to "borrow" American duel use technologies China cannot keep up in technology over the long term. Any prolonged cold war style contest of wills between the US and China would result in the communist party of China sharing the fate the Russian communists experienced in 1989. America could exhaust china in any economic contest similar to America vs The Soviet Union.

America exhausted the Soviet Union in an ARMS RACE. That is not the same thing at all. You seem to have little economic understanding of the current world-economical situation. Who is China trading WITH? One quarter of her trade is with America. Both sides gain. Economic competition is not nations drawing from one finite pool of resources where the 'better nation' wins.

It is also suggested that you provide proof and reasonings for your assertions re: Chinese economic incompetence, in the face of facts (Chinese labour productivity is RISING FAST, Chinese economy (home market is the MAIN growth driver, foreign trade is only responsible for about two percentiles), and Chinese investment in infrastructure and education is rising). Prove by Shouting Loudly has been discredited some centuries before.

Authoritarian reghims simply cannot move fast enough. The more powerful the government is vs its own people the slower it moves and the less incentive individuals have to innovate.

Now you are just making stuff up in the face of facts. Authoritarian can and do 'move fast enough'. Take a look at China in the last 25 years and tell me with a straight face that it was not moving fast. And you will notice if you read anything other than NewsMax about China, that Chinese government is growing less and less powerful over the years. 25 years ago, population movement was strictly controlled, apartments, marriage, jobs assignment, all was government-managed.

It isn't now, is it?

To defend itself the Chinese Government has no need to build aircraft carriers or other tools that are built solely for the purpose of power projection.
Purely offensive systems are inappropriate to defensive aims.... unless you are intent on forging your own separate alliances to challenge the dominant alliance system in place. It is for this reason that the US might ease off on additional transfers of high tech if China peruses a foreign policy too far in variance with US policy aims. Any restrictions of US tech would probably force the Chinese to fall behind again in military technology over time.

What other tools? ICBMs and bombers are necessary for strategic deterrance (as poor a job as it might be doing). ANd as for power-projection - take a look at American military bases all around China. PLA war-planners have to be realistic. They have no particular desire to fight a battle they will lose, but SOME power projection is obviously necessary even in a purely defensive strategy in relation their aims (Taiwan and Spratlies are regarded as Chinese territory, right or wrong, and no, that is not expanism - China's claims to those areas are long-standing and well known - expanism would be when they start claiming things they've never claimed before and recognised as the soil of another nation, like, say, Ryukuu. So far, they have not shown themselves to be this stupid).

And for the premier world power in terms of power projection to accuse the OTHER's capabilities of being too offensive, I find that very rich indeed.

Probably, woulda, shoulda. Barring a full embargo or draconian legislations completely at variance with your purported free market principles, I don't see how you can stop the free flow of capital and ideas.

At present the disarray in the American educational system below the University level is what is preventing the US from acting more decisively in this area. I would not consider the Caios in US education to be a permanent state of affairs by any means.

Sorry, what does American educational system has to do with Ameroican foreign policy?


This all depends on what the full meaning of "Strategic Independence means to the politburo?

You seem to have made up your mind on that already, yes?
 

Gollevainen

Colonel
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Now unless you guys can figure out some solidproof reasons why does US vs. China pissing contest have to do with the military factor of Japan will be capable of intercepting ballistic missiles (and what on earth does japanese threads doing here?), I suggest for your own good to cut it down.

One more offtopic and political remark and that member will find out can he intercept ballistic missiles...:nono::nono:


Gollevainen
Supermod
 

Tac Dog

New Member
Registered Member
I think this thread is nothing but to inflame the old hatred between China and Japan back in WWII!!
 

akinkhoo

Junior Member
you guys are talking into star trek generations. china in no way can match technology for another 20 years. and the threat of ICBM being nullified is sooner than that!

i still see that the only way for china is maintain it's stratergical capabilities is to build ICBM in large numbers to overwhelm the ABM. at the same time, this would allow it parity with Russia and US. sure US/Russia will be less willing to cooperate with China once it is equal in power; but it will also prevent anyone from 'bullying it' or stand against it's unification.

japan might even be a none issue. if china can turn japan to a neutral position... or if not, support south korea on the maritime border and Dokdo issue just to give japan and US headache >:)
 

Raptoreyes

New Member
you guys are talking into star trek generations. china in no way can match technology for another 20 years. and the threat of ICBM being nullified is sooner than that!

i still see that the only way for china is maintain it's stratergical capabilities is to build ICBM in large numbers to overwhelm the ABM. at the same time, this would allow it parity with Russia and US. sure US/Russia will be less willing to cooperate with China once it is equal in power; but it will also prevent anyone from 'bullying it' or stand against it's unification.

japan might even be a none issue. if china can turn japan to a neutral position... or if not, support south korea on the maritime border and Dokdo issue just to give japan and US headache >:)

Many of the international treaties that prohibit stationing weapons in earth orbit or claiming ownership of extraterrestrial objects are going to sunset within a generation. Making military systems that can control the La-Grange points, moon and earth orbit are quietly being put on the drawing board of all the nations with regular access to space.

Even low flying cruse missiles could be regularly intercepted by various systems lawnched by satilites or space stations in orbit. One of the biggest advantages of orbital interception would be that the "terrain hugging" abilities of cruse missile systems would be largely for nothing against a system that ALWAYS has proper line of sight to target.

Travel time to intercept would be an issue but not an insurmountable one IMHO. Even as it stands today ground based interception missiles such as the Patriot do a pretty good job as things stand now. The proposed anti missile shield to protect countries that could be under threat by a resurgent Russian authoritarianism, sent Putin and his cronies into fits of anger and its likely not because the systems are purely symbolic but rather very potent at this point in time vs the missiles they face. Japan can only be said to be wisely following in the footsteps of non-Russian Europe against a threat from China that is by all impressions very similar.
 

akinkhoo

Junior Member
proper line of sight? you never heard of something call cloud cover? even GPS signal had been block by a broken TV antenna.

again the talk about starwars. maybe read some news on what is happening in NASA. they are a joke, the ARES I couldn't even put a potato in space! they could have everything working if they use the revisioned DIRECT plans, but they stick to the ARES because they hate losing face. they repeat the same mistake that got them the flying coffin that is the spaceshuttle. so how do you to get space defence system in space WITHOUT a launcher to lanuch it on!?

at the moment, i am not impressed by the space program. it will happen, but not in the near future, china concern isn't some starwars system that would bankrupt the US before it even have a chance to use it!

it is the neutralize of it's ICBM by japan with the anti-missile system. something that could happen soon.

as for the control Lagrange point, they are not important to earthly nation. 1stly half of them are unstable point, 2ndly the stable point L4/L5 is so far away, it would be as cheap as going to the moon! why don't i just have a moonbase instead? there are more critical orbit to secure. you sure point out some interesting things, but do you know much about space?
 
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