J31 program is military version of Huawei, most griping in US minds.

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by tidalwave, May 22, 2019.

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  1. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    I have seen quite a few US articles talk about China commercial intellect theft and then changed direction and dived into J31, saying how China copied US military tech F35 plane made into J31 and how China can profit from this.

    Sure J31 can present military challnege to F35, but US articles articles focus more on the economic aspect and geopolitical aspect. They believe a successful J31 program can earn China alot of money and also score allies , much like the Belt and Road initiative.

    So, to retaliate against US in Huawei case, China should put down everything else , stop making anymore third generation plane and focus on J31 program.

    A successful J31 export program can giveUS nightmare much like Huawei on the commercial fronts in the international stage. China can profit alot from it and also score more political allies.kind of like Russian S400 program wrestle Turkey and India away from US.
     
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  2. TerraN_EmpirE
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    TerraN_EmpirE Tyrant King

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    The spin is strong here.
    1. At this time there is no evidence of a widespread J31 program. We know they are building J20 but J31 seems to be a technology demonstration program.
    2. Rushing the program to production is likely to result in the very thing the Chinese don’t want lots of bugs lots of system refit to correct issues. Making it more expensive and more resource heavy potentially weakening other programs.
    3. Although there is a superficial resemblance J31 is not F35. The two programs and platforms are at different levels and progress points. There differences are also dramatic beyond maturity. J31 is a twin engine bird F35 is single engine. J31 as yet as only shown conventional take off rolls F35 has the three configurations Conventional, Catapult assisted and Short vertical take off.
    4. Fifth gens (Chinese classify as fourth) require a lot more TLC then fourth gens ( Chinese classifies as third) despite the want to jump to the contrary even the US who has the largest fifth gen fleet is still invested in older fourth gen birds. The reason for the Chinese classification is they jumped in late to aviation and their indigenous programs were delayed. They are still looking to build a fourth gen fleet and for good reason.
     
    #2 TerraN_EmpirE, May 22, 2019
    Last edited: May 22, 2019
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  3. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 Junior Member
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    I don't agree with what you say here. Right now, China needs to do passive Taichi: react to America's moves, but don't jump the gun. The Republican Trump US is making a huge mistake of dismantling the Anglo-American Universal Liberal Democratic Value System. Although the administration alone is not powerful enough to destroy this system, they did a lot of damage and thus significantly weakened its appeal.

    I say this because that value system (I simplify as AAULDVS) is in fact a political religion that the US created to conquer and unify the world. Without this unifying agent, the world gradually and surely decay into a multi-polar system divided by civilization boundaries. This multi-polar system benefits China in the long run, but make Her uncomfortable in the short run.

    The worst we could do, is to act as an agent of adversary. This would give the US a chance to black mail the other major nations into allying with the US despite themselves being on the receiving end of bullying from the US. What we need to do is to do Taichi. Be passive towards anything the US does, answer their moves with firm but minimalist reaction.
     
  4. Brumby
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    Brumby Major

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    Can you please leave out the politics from your comments. Kindly read the forum rules.
     
  5. Lethe
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    Lethe Senior Member

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    Or to put it more succinctly, as attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: never interrupt an enemy while he is in the process of making a mistake.

    China must certainly protect and pursue its interests, but part of that involves recognising that there many other nations out there in the world that are watching the behaviour of both Washington and Beijing carefully and drawing their own conclusions. So far, China is winning the PR game, largely owing to Donald Trump's buffoonery.

    America's major error in its recent turn to confrontation with China has been that this shift has been accompanied by similarly hostile approaches taken towards many theoretically allied nations. From Canada to Germany to Japan: Trump has pissed them off. And that in turn has meant that America's anti-China crusade is being conducted alone. And China should in turn do everything to ensure that things stay that way, by appearing the more reasonable and conciliatory actor, and perhaps even by actively courting the favour of those others nations (e.g. by making proposals or offering concessions) in ways that increase the likelihood that the current differences between US and allied nations will be sustained and/or deepened.
     
    #5 Lethe, May 23, 2019
    Last edited: May 23, 2019
  6. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    Do taichi? why don't you go to sleep, that would save you more energy than taichi.
     
  7. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 Junior Member
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    You need to learn to calm down. You need to go read "On Protracted War" by Mao Zedong. Regardless of what you might think of Mao, that is a great piece of political writing.
     
  8. jimmyjames30x30
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    jimmyjames30x30 Junior Member
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    It's much more than a PR victory. The greatest strategic gain so far for China is the fact that Trump has put a huge dent on what I called Anglo-American Universal Liberal Democratic Value System which is the unifying "new religion" (pardon me for calling it a religion) that is the center piece of a grand effort aimed at conquering the world without perceivable invasion and securing an Anglo-American dominated world order/empire. I would consider the TPP as an institutional arm of this empire.

    Trump certainly didn't destroy this value system, but he has roused up a huge populist base within the US that perceives this world order as fundamentally "Un-American". This is rather ironic, but it does make a lot of sense. I don't really care what he says or does about China, because there isn't anything significant he can do that won't hurt American strategic interest but only hurts China's strategic interest.

    Right now, the worst thing for China to do, is to over-react and actively start a dooms day war with the US. Because doing this will fundamentally change the power dynamics of the world: it will force every other country to pick sides in a life-or-death situation. Under this situation, most country will pick America, because they believe the US is stronger and they are already in some sort of cooperative or alliance type of relationship with the US. This will then give the US the upper hand over these other countries, and they will be forced to act as expendable acids against China. If that happens, the US will truly be in a situation where it can remain unhurt while China and the rest of the world fight to the death.
     
    #8 jimmyjames30x30, May 23, 2019
    Last edited: May 23, 2019
  9. Biscuits
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    Biscuits Junior Member
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    I don’t think it will work well as export, except maybe to the most trusted allies.

    Shenyang went out and asked 70 million $ for it, IF the buyer also paid for remaining program. And that was before the redesign. F-35A runs for about 80-90 million $, and that’s a whole plane with no strings attached.

    With the redesign, it’s slated to be very deadly, too deadly to sell. And it would also be prohibitively expensive.
     
  10. tidalwave
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    tidalwave Senior Member
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    Lol,
    You must come out from a cave, have not seen the real world for awhile.

    What they got to lose at Mao time?
     
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