J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[AndrewS]

you are absolutely right if PLAAF has no budget limit .... but unfortunately PLAAF do have budget limit

I am sure you are aware that J-20 is a very expensive, like ~2-3x of J-10B/C

So what if a J-20 is 3x more expensive than a J-10?

As long as the J-20 is at least 4x more capable than a J-10 (which it probably is), then it's worth buying a J-20 instead of J-10s.

 

[antiterror13]

So what if a J-20 is 3x more expensive than a J-10?

As long as the J-20 is at least 4x more capable than a J-10 (which it probably is), then it's worth buying a J-20 instead of J-10s.

well, probably J-20 is 4x more capable than J-10 in some scenarios .... but definitely not in all scenarios. Why don't you buy a super hi performance computer thats 10x more powerful than your computer and 5x more expensive ... let say you have 100 computers in your office ... you see my point?

 

[AndrewS]

well, probably J-20 is 4x more capable than J-10 in some scenarios .... but definitely not in all scenarios. Why don't you buy a super hi performance computer thats 10x more powerful than your computer and 5x more expensive ... let say you have 100 computers in your office ... you see my point?

And what is the most important scenario for the Chinese Air Force?

Being able to obtain air superiority over the Chinese mainland and the Western Pacific, in the face of vast numbers of opposing stealth fighters.
That is why the J-20 exists.
On that measure, for a given spend, the J-20 likely delivers more combat effectiveness than the J-10.

I understand your point, but it's simply not the strategic situation that China faces today.
In the distant future, if China did field a vast fleet of stealth fighters, then it would make sense to buy more J-10 and J-11. They would complement the J-20 as either missile trucks or perform in an air-to-ground role since external munitions would negate stealth anyway.

But that is just too far off in the future.

 

[DGBJCLAU]

And what is the most important scenario for the Chinese Air Force?

Being able to obtain air superiority over the Chinese mainland and the Western Pacific, in the face of vast numbers of opposing stealth fighters.
That is why the J-20 exists.
On that measure, for a given spend, the J-20 likely delivers more combat effectiveness than the J-10.

I understand your point, but it's simply not the strategic situation that China faces today.
In the distant future, if China did field a vast fleet of stealth fighters, then it would make sense to buy more J-10 and J-11. They would complement the J-20 as either missile trucks or perform in an air-to-ground role since external munitions would negate stealth anyway.

But that is just too far off in the future.

You both have your points but I think @antiterror13's reasoning is closer to the PLA's own way of doing things.

What you, Andrew, says can basically be compared to the situation in the 1990s for the PLAAF. Did they absolutely focus on boosting the production of J-11s? No. J-7s, J-8s and Q-5s were still massively produced, while the domestic capacity for assembling and then producing J-11s from scratch took a long learning curve. Of course since the J-20 is a Chinese design in the first place, the situation is different. Still, It's one thing to reach a rather simplistic conclusion from a purely doctrine-centric perspective, but every military has its own momentum, and a variety of other factors equally importantly chip in. That's the reality.

I guess what I'm trying to say is if the PLA can come above all the other factors (economic, habitual, redundancy/risk-related, etc.), yes, maybe they should theoretically focus on getting "a lot more" J-20s as the utmost priority. But it's more complicated than that.

 

[AndrewS]

You both have your points but I think @antiterror13's reasoning is closer to the PLA's own way of doing things.

What you, Andrew, says can basically be compared to the situation in the 1990s for the PLAAF. Did they absolutely focus on boosting the production of J-11s? No. J-7s, J-8s and Q-5s were still massively produced. It's one thing to reach a rather simplistic conclusion from a purely doctrine-centric perspective, but every military has its own momentum, and a variety of other factors equally importantly chip in. That's the reality.

I guess what I'm trying to say is if the PLA can come above all the other factors (economic, habitual, redundancy/risk-related, etc.), yes, maybe they should theoretically focus on getting "a lot more" J-20s as the utmost priority. But it's more complicated than that.

The situation with J-11, J-7, J-8 and Q-5 is different.

The Q-5 is dedicated to ground attack, and fulfils a different role to the J-11, J-7, J-8.

Shenyang J-8 production finished in 1990. Then Shenyang started assembling the Flanker. Then the Shenyang J-11 flew in 1998.
The Chengdu J-10 was first produced in 2006. And it does look like the J-7 was only produced for export after that period.

So the historical record would suggest that there weren't production overlaps.

---

But what we do see is industrial policy that both Chengdu and Shenyang should compete in fighter aircraft contracts. That means they both have to receive some contracts for whatever aircraft they are already producing. Even if the Chengdu J-6 is significantly worse than the Shenyang J-11, like the period from 1998-2006.

Otherwise you end up with a Lockheed situation where they have a monopoly on the F-22 and the F-35. That is not good.

 

[DGBJCLAU]

The situation with J-11, J-7, J-8 and Q-5 is different.

The Q-5 is dedicated to ground attack, and fulfils a different role to the J-11, J-7, J-8.

Shenyang J-8 production finished in 1990. Then Shenyang started assembling the Flanker. Then the Shenyang J-11 flew in 1998.

The Chengdu J-10 was first produced in 2006... no, actually it entered service in the early 2000s, in 2003. And it does look like the J-7 was only produced for export after that period.

So the historical record would suggest that there weren't production overlaps.

---

But what we do see is industrial policy that both Chengdu and Shenyang should compete in fighter aircraft contracts. That means they both have to receive contracts for whatever aircraft they are already producing.

Otherwise you end up with a Lockheed situation where they have a monopoly on the F-22 and the F-35. That is not good.

I deliberately included the Q-5 as part of the example, in that the J-16 is exactly a contemporary comparable model as a strike fighter. The J-8 was in production as of the early 2000s (the H and F variants, and maybe more), plus J-7Es were produced until 2001 (and the J-7Gs for a few years more), so you are not correct there either.

J-10s entered service in 2006, it doesn't mean it was only produced since then.

Also yes you are right that SAC need contracts, while CAC has limited experience in striker fighters anyways.

 

[DGBJCLAU]

J-10s entered service in 2006, it doesn't mean it was only produced since then.

Correction: regular production J-10s were delivered in 2003. I don't know why my edit is not shown.

 

[AndrewS]

I deliberately included the Q-5 as part of the example, in that the J-16 is exactly a contemporary comparable model as a strike fighter. The J-8 was in production as of the early 2000s (the H and F variants, and maybe more), plus J-7Es were produced until 2001 (and the J-7Gs for a few years more), so you are not correct there either.

J-10s entered service in 2006, it doesn't mean it was only produced since then.

Also yes you are right that SAC need contracts, while CAC has limited experience in striker fighters anyways.

I missed that part.

I suspect that the J-8 and J-7 were still produced for the interceptor role because they are cheap and and don't need to be highly manoeuvrable.
There's not a huge difference in performance in this role when compared to the J-10 and J-11, which are also non-stealthy.
So the J-7 and J-8 would complement the more expensive and higher performance J-10 and J-11.

But the primary J-10 mission is air superiority like the J-20. They're both produced at the same place, but the J-20 offers a much higher cost-effectiveness ratio than the J-10

 

[DGBJCLAU]

I missed that part.

I suspect that the J-8 and J-7 were still produced for the interceptor role because they are cheap and and don't need to be highly manoeuvrable.
There's not a huge difference in performance in this role when compared to the J-10 and J-11, which are also non-stealthy.
So the J-7 and J-8 would complement the more expensive and higher performance J-10 and J-11.

But the primary J-10 mission is air superiority like the J-20. They're both produced at the same place, but the J-20 offers a much higher cost-effectiveness ratio than the J-10

I agree that's maybe a factor but a rather weak one. There are two more heavy-weight factors I can think of:

1. The PLA is cheap, and by this I don't mean any disrespect. It's just a fact. They cost-down, period.
2. Learning curves and momentum.

 

[antiterror13]

And what is the most important scenario for the Chinese Air Force?

Being able to obtain air superiority over the Chinese mainland and the Western Pacific, in the face of vast numbers of opposing stealth fighters.
That is why the J-20 exists.
On that measure, for a given spend, the J-20 likely delivers more combat effectiveness than the J-10.

I understand your point, but it's simply not the strategic situation that China faces today.
In the distant future, if China did field a vast fleet of stealth fighters, then it would make sense to buy more J-10 and J-11. They would complement the J-20 as either missile trucks or perform in an air-to-ground role since external munitions would negate stealth anyway.

But that is just too far off in the future.

May I ask you ... what other jet fighters in the world that better than J-10C or J-11B/D ? apart from F-22 and F-35 ? .. the answer is NONE right?

Like I said before .... if PLAAF had no budget limit .. you are absolutely right .. just replace all to J-20 (inc J-7 series)

Would the PLAAF use J-20 to face other countries (apart of USN) ? ... remember also that operating J-20 is much more expensive than J-10

China is not only facing USN ... a lot countries (12?) bordering China