J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread V

[davidwangqi]

But the same guy said WS10B's thrust is around 13.2t which is not better than its Russian counterparts. They bought enough AL31 series to power both J20 and J10x.Why do they need WS10B at this moment?

The WS-15 is predicted by the Liyang employee to be ready no sooner than 2022, about the same time the next-gen medium-thrust engine is ready, but Chinese engine programs usually get delayed so an estimate of 2025 is possible. From now til 2022, that's five years, and eight years if assuming 2025. That's a solid chunk of time for WS-10B to be mounted as interim engines.

If J-20 production remains steady at ~10 aircraft per year, that's 50-80 J-20s that require engines until WS-15 is ready. Employing WS-10B for these initial batches seems like a fine idea.

 

[latenlazy]

Tphuang hasn't posted in a long while so I can't get a reading on what his thoughts are. I wouldn't take the insider's words as gospel as he works in Liyang, not Liming, so he would only get second-hand or nth-ordinate-hand accounts of Liming's progress. He even says that himself; that of all the engine programs in China, he knows the least about the WS-15. Nonetheless, the secondary/tertiary sources that he has access to, while not perfect, are still more reliable than our conjecture.

The 2016 ground test rumour is ambiguous as to whether it's a test of just the engine core or a complete tech demonstrator. The

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

doesn't contradict the insider's accounts at all. The article's individual-in-question said this: "the engine's development is proceeding well. We have also begun to design a next-generation aviation engine with a thrust-to-weight ratio that is much higher than that of current types." I'm interpreting that to mean there are two separate engines; one that will soon be mounted on J-20, and another next-generation engine, probably WS-15. So you're agreeing with me in that the J-20 will likely mount WS-10Bs before WS-15 is ready.

As an aside, the documentary from CCTV that said the J-20's engines were manufactured by Liming was ridiculed by literally every single experienced PLAAF watcher on Chinese BBS, including Huitong. There is no doubt that current J-20 engines are from the AL-31 family, even if the exact variant is unknown. And there is serious doubt that Liming is able to manufacture the AL-31 in its entirety because if they could, why buy from Russia?

We have some documented evidence that suggests construction of a complete design started sometime around 2012 or 2013 I think, soon after the core completed testing (which if I recall was validated with one of those ceremonial banner pics that mark important milestones in projects). The core, we know from an insider, started testing at least as early as 2008. I think, given the Liyang guy's information comes from hearsay, we need to consider how long his game of telephone is, how well informed the original source would be, when did he hear the information he's been sharing, and he how up to date the information. These are all unknowable of course, but the basic nature of information he's sharing is going to be a rung lower than some of the most prominent big shrimps in quality because those big shrimps seem to get getting live real time constantly updated information from the decision maker level. Guess we'll have to see.

 

[siegecrossbow]

But the same guy said WS10B's thrust is around 13.2t which is not better than its Russian counterparts. They bought enough AL31 series to power both J20 and J10x.Why do they need WS10B at this moment?

One possibility is that Russia cannot be depended upon for AL-31 supplies and can potentially pose bottleneck for the total number of J-20s produced. They need to test the J-20 with WS-10 in case something bad happens.

 

[Blitzo]

That digital image to promote the movie is NOT a Kodachrome 64 slide film image, it is digital, and it is likely a composite image, digitally remastered, and yes that would make it CGI.. the aircraft in your examples are flying in airshows, as evidenced by the fancy paint.

Military two ships are typically either left echelon or right echelon, and they tend to be much, much, looser, as it is much safer... the line abreast two ship is very difficult,,, the aircraft pictured are likely flying line abreast for the photo op value.

Most of the magazine photo's from the last Century were Kodachrome, as magazine editors did NOT want "doctored" images, just simple clean, well exposed slides, that where then processed in to "slicks", or glossy prints...

Where is your proof that it is a composite image?

Nothing about the image looks artificial. The two ship J-20 takeoff looks fine, the J-20 in the foreground looks fine as well and the high quality of the photo means we are able to see all the details on the J-20 in the foreground that we would expect, down to individual rivets.


I don't know what could possibly make you argue that it is a composite or doctored image.

 

[vincent]

Military two ships are typically either left echelon or right echelon, and they tend to be much, much, looser, as it is much safer... the line abreast two ship is very difficult,,, the aircraft pictured are likely flying line abreast for the photo op value.

No doctoring. PLAAF helped with the footages for the film Sky Hunter

You can see the J-20 takeoff at the 2:00 mark

Attached screen grabs of the video

 

[Inst]

It's not impossible that the J-20 uses engines "manufactured" by Liming. Liming could be producing AL-31 under contract, or it could be modifying the AL-31 shipped in by Russia. If we take the CCTV documentary at face value, that's the best way to resolve the contradiction between claims of Liming manufacture and what clearly seems to be an AL-31.

 

[Inst]

@latenlazy: In the social sciences, we deal with datapoints, and in China-watching, we likewise deal with datapoints as the PLAAF are not going to give us full schematics. The Taiwanese RCS study definitely exists. It is not of absolute accuracy; as others have said, we don't have full methodological information but it is supporting evidence for the thesis that the J-20 is somewhat less stealthy than the F-35 and F-22.

 

[latenlazy]

@latenlazy: In the social sciences, we deal with datapoints, and in China-watching, we likewise deal with datapoints as the PLAAF are not going to give us full schematics. The Taiwanese RCS study definitely exists. It is not of absolute accuracy; as others have said, we don't have full methodological information but it is supporting evidence for the thesis that the J-20 is somewhat less stealthy than the F-35 and F-22.

I love the social sciences, but there is a lot of junk knowledge in those fields generated from the willingness to make strong claims with poor data, conceptually weak interpretations, and a general lack of rigour.

 

[Inst]

You're not even asserting the opposite statement, you know. The debate is between "The J-20 is somewhat less stealthy than the F-35 and F-22" and "we can't know". The former is almost a tautology, to be frank.

 

[latenlazy]

You're not even asserting the opposite statement, you know. The debate is between "The J-20 is somewhat less stealthy than the F-35 and F-22" and "we can't know". The former is almost a tautology, to be frank.

You and I are not having the same debate. You should read people's arguments closely and plainly rather than impose readings and presumptions that aren't there.