J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread IV (Closed to posting)
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The J-20 program was designed to hit LRIP / IOC as soon as possible, if you've read Dr. Song's design documents on designing a capable 4.5 / 5th gen fighter with inferior engines. The design compromises made by the J-20 are intended to allow the Chinese to deploy the J-20 with current or Russian engines, resulting in a somewhat overweight interceptor that has possibly acceptable performance as an air superiority fighter, while not blocking its upgrade path to more capable engines that would allow it to contest F-22s and PAK-FAs on an equal footing.
Essentially, the PLAAF needs 5th generation capabilities up into the air as soon as possible, so compromises have been made in capability, but the J-20 has a well-designed upgrade path so that it can be made fully capable once the technologies are ready. It's essentially the anti-F-35 in terms of project planning; the F-35 would have been an overwhelmingly capable fighter had it been deployed on time, but because the project is more than 4 years late it has become a bit of a lemon. The J-20, on the other hand, will be limited in initial capability, but it will likely be early. The open question for the J-20, however, is whether or not the late-stage technologies will be deployed on schedule. 6th generation fighters will be deployed towards the end of the 2020s and the beginning of the 2030s, making the J-20 obsolete, while the J-20 won't be significantly superior to the F-35 without mature EODAS and high-thrust engines, especially once the F-35 gets its laser jammer deployed around 2018 and 2019.
Essentially, the PLAAF needs 5th generation capabilities up into the air as soon as possible, so compromises have been made in capability, but the J-20 has a well-designed upgrade path so that it can be made fully capable once the technologies are ready. It's essentially the anti-F-35 in terms of project planning; the F-35 would have been an overwhelmingly capable fighter had it been deployed on time, but because the project is more than 4 years late it has become a bit of a lemon. The J-20, on the other hand, will be limited in initial capability, but it will likely be early. The open question for the J-20, however, is whether or not the late-stage technologies will be deployed on schedule. 6th generation fighters will be deployed towards the end of the 2020s and the beginning of the 2030s, making the J-20 obsolete, while the J-20 won't be significantly superior to the F-35 without mature EODAS and high-thrust engines, especially once the F-35 gets its laser jammer deployed around 2018 and 2019.
While I can agree with much of what you have stated, the F-22, F-35, PAK-FA, and J-20 are all radically new aircraft, with capabilities that will far overshadow even 4.5 gen aircraft? They are all being developed concurrently and even the F-22 continues to expand its capabilities far beyond it peers and near peers, the others are just now becoming fully airworthy reliable aircraft, we could classify their developement as the "toddler" stage, it helps to think of them as "learning" as much of their capability is yet to be "actualized" into a usable weapons platform?
So I believe your concern over obsolesence is overblown, as none of these aircraft have yet reached their full capability, nor have their peers???
I believe that inst was refering to the engine issue, Dr Songs's paper says that even without a satate of the art engine J-20 willl be viable AC (per design compromises).
It's more a Chinese problem than an American problem, because the F/A-XX project is already in progress. China is trying to catch up to the United States, and if the projected J-20 is deployed right now, it'll likely be superior to the F-35, just as the F-35, if its program had been on schedule, would be superior to the J-20 in certain key aspects.
Basically, if a mature J-20 can be put out in numbers by 2022, it'll have five years of numerical dominance over the F-22 and qualitative dominance over the F-35. Towards 2028-2032, American sixth gens will hit the field, which will render the J-20 obsolete until the Chinese can catch up with their own sixth-generation kit.
But here's the problem; what happened to the F-35 was that its development was excessively prolonged, to the point where it had few advantages over its competitors, because while it was state-of-the-art during the design phase most of its technologies got cloned or hacked during its prolonged development. If the J-20 is similarly late with its "reach" technologies like its EODAS and proper 5th gen engines, 5 years of dominance could become 4, 3, 2, or 0.
As a good, loyal American this is not a problem for you. You must be interested in the J-20 simply because you like planes, and if its later technologies are 5 or 10 years late, no problem, it's still a beautiful plane. For the Chinese, however, this is geopolitically important because it determines how much military leverage they'll have in the region and the world between now and 2030, and if the J-20's add-on programs are late, it'll imply that sixth-generation fighters will also be late.
Basically, America is usually ahead of everyone else in planes; the US's cutting edge is a half or full generation ahead of everyone else's. This time, because of Lockheed screwing the pooch, America will hit parity with China for a brief interval, until it pulls ahead again with sixth gens. The question is whether or not China will also screw the pooch, then; if they don't, they have a chance of being briefly ahead, if they do, they will be a half-generation behind the US again.
Basically, if a mature J-20 can be put out in numbers by 2022, it'll have five years of numerical dominance over the F-22 and qualitative dominance over the F-35. Towards 2028-2032, American sixth gens will hit the field, which will render the J-20 obsolete until the Chinese can catch up with their own sixth-generation kit.
But here's the problem; what happened to the F-35 was that its development was excessively prolonged, to the point where it had few advantages over its competitors, because while it was state-of-the-art during the design phase most of its technologies got cloned or hacked during its prolonged development. If the J-20 is similarly late with its "reach" technologies like its EODAS and proper 5th gen engines, 5 years of dominance could become 4, 3, 2, or 0.
As a good, loyal American this is not a problem for you. You must be interested in the J-20 simply because you like planes, and if its later technologies are 5 or 10 years late, no problem, it's still a beautiful plane. For the Chinese, however, this is geopolitically important because it determines how much military leverage they'll have in the region and the world between now and 2030, and if the J-20's add-on programs are late, it'll imply that sixth-generation fighters will also be late.
Basically, America is usually ahead of everyone else in planes; the US's cutting edge is a half or full generation ahead of everyone else's. This time, because of Lockheed screwing the pooch, America will hit parity with China for a brief interval, until it pulls ahead again with sixth gens. The question is whether or not China will also screw the pooch, then; if they don't, they have a chance of being briefly ahead, if they do, they will be a half-generation behind the US again.
You're supposing that the US six gen aircraft will not be delayed. Looking at the types of technologies needed that is a bold supposition.
It's planned for more than 10 years into the future, so there's time.
IMO the key technology for sixth gen should be aerial point defense, which the F-35 is already developing. First generation of that involves dazzlers against short-range missiles, the second or third should be capable of hard-killing incoming missiles. The other set seems to be fly-via-TVC for highly improved stealth, which shouldn't be that hard.
Funny thing is, both the J-20 and the F-35 are already halfway there; the J-20, if equipped with TVC, already has the canard-TVC framework for TVC-based stealth. The F-35 will get a laser dazzler against optically-guided missiles in 2018.
IMO the key technology for sixth gen should be aerial point defense, which the F-35 is already developing. First generation of that involves dazzlers against short-range missiles, the second or third should be capable of hard-killing incoming missiles. The other set seems to be fly-via-TVC for highly improved stealth, which shouldn't be that hard.
Funny thing is, both the J-20 and the F-35 are already halfway there; the J-20, if equipped with TVC, already has the canard-TVC framework for TVC-based stealth. The F-35 will get a laser dazzler against optically-guided missiles in 2018.
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