J-15 carrier-borne fighter thread

[kwaigonegin]

Hey guys sorry for the late reply. I spent some time checking the satellite imagery at both SAC and Xing Cheng and found almost no activities last year in terms of production and testing of the new batch of J-15B for Type 002 CV at SAC. In addition the two yellow J-15s at Xing Cheng Base appear to have been parked at the same spot next to the ski jump since last October. Therefore now I tend to agree with Deino that those two are not newly constructed J-15s, but rather the old yellow 552 and 553 prototypes. However this does bring out a very interesting question: with 002 on sea trail and to enter the initial service as early as next year, where are newly built J-15Bs dedicated to 002? The answer is likely none. So in order to keep both 001 and 002 operational, PLAN will have to split the existing 24 J-15As between the two CVS as a stopgap solution, that could have a significant impact on both CVs to achieve FOC. In addition, as we know J-15A is already obsolete. It is only comparable to F/A-18C and no match to F/A-18E (forget about F-35). So this brings out another interesting question: without additional J-15B, what is SAC/PLAN’s plan for 001/002 in the future? Are they just waiting for the next generation stealthy J-35 which will take 5+ years to enter the service? While waiting, are they going to update the existing J-15A to the B standard which will at least feature an AESA radar+enhanced precision strike capability, in order to deal with the threat from F/A-18E? Finally the question remiains: what is the future of J-15T project? Will it enter the limited production for 003, or just remain as a technology demonstrator? The prospect of PLAN carrier-borne fighter in the next 5-6 years suddenly becomes complicated and less clear. SAC might have been forced to abandon the J-15B development plan when PLAN decided to jump directly to the stealthy J-35 between 2017 and 2018. Anyway I am still searching for the answers.

Like you surmised, the most likely answer is J15B's development came a lil too late to make any meaningful impact to their total modernisation in lieu of the neighboring countries. I believe that J15B acquisition may have come to a halt or at least severely minimized due to the continued proliferation of F35s to Japan, USPACFLT, SK etc. and continued progress in R&D for a navalized stealth bird either in the form of J15, F31 etc.

It could be as simple as them deciding to just have a slight technological and quantitative gap for a few years and then get up to par with a new bird rather than throwing more resources and time in building an aircraft that is basically obselete against potential adversaries the moment it comes online. J15B is not cheap. Capability wise I don't think it matters that much either when you only have 2 carriers to play around and one of them will be in port most of the time anyway.

 

[gelgoog]

I would say Shenyang have likely focused their Flanker production on the J-16. That will provide the PLA the most bang for the buck. The JH-7 has much worse performance.
If you just look at the difference in engine thrust alone, how that relates to payload capability/bomb capacity in the aircraft, you can tell the difference.
A couple of years back the PLA even had units with the Q-5 in service. Ugh. It only got taken out of service in 2017 IIRC.

I think they are not in a rush to produce the carrier aircraft for several reasons. The second carrier will likely enter service at the end of next year. At the same time I would not be surprised if the first carrier would be in a refit period to make the systems more in line with the second carrier's and taking into account the lessons learned with the first carrier.

So they will likely only need a single air wing. At worst, like @huitong said, they can split it between both carriers. We have also heard they are training more carrier pilots at this moment. So the top priority will be carrier trainer aircraft. This might be the L-15 rather than the J-15 in order to retain J-15 airframe lifetime. The L-15 will be used for at least six months or a year's time before they get to use the J-15 or whatever.

They will only need more carrier aircraft like in a year or two. In three years the third carrier should be in service assuming there are no delays. I suspect they will make an upgraded version of the J-15 or upgrade the existing airframes. But I suspect the production on those, if it happens, will only start next year if not later.

The FC-31 variant, in a small LRIP batch, might be available for trials around the time the third or fourth carrier is put into service in three or four years time. That is enough time to complete the FC-31 into something usable. They have been working on it for several years already.

 

[huitong]

There were rumors that the 3rd batch of J-15A (2XX) were produced, but never confirmed.

 

[Intrepid]

May be, the #207 and #208 are numbers of aircraft that only approach to but never land on an aircraft carrier. May be L-15 or something else.

 

[Twix101]

There is potentially a dilemma around which J-15 version is going to be produced. If they are producing about 2 to 3 dozens of aircrafts, it would be awkward to have then being unable to be operated from CATOBAR carriers. At the same time, it seems they haven't completely frozen their catapult design yet, that means the J-15T design is also subject to some modifications. I think it would be one of the main reasons why we haven't seen any new J-15 yet.

Like USN, they would like to get a platform which would be able to throw a heavy punch along with J-31but at the same time, they would hate having an aircraft plagued with or at least affected with structural issues.

 

[gelgoog]

If I was the PLAN I would focus the J-15 production on STOBAR capabilities and only retain a couple of prototypes for CATOBAR tests. Then design and produce the FC-31 for CATOBAR carriers. Later make a STOBAR variant of the FC-31 with higher performance engines and reduced weight for the STOBAR carriers.

 

[asif iqbal]

if there was a batch 03 we would have known

when was the last time we were surprised with a entire new batch out of no where ?

also PLAN doesnt even have 24 x J15 since there has been at least one crash

China seems like it might become the Russia with Su-33 and Kuznetsov

with aircraft those carriers are useless

 

[Biscuits]

Or they’ll modify the J20 for carriers ops. It was raised as a possibility, while FC-31 doesn’t even have any official support from the govt.

In the first few months, stealth UAV can make up for lack of stealth carrier aircraft.

I see the 001 series more as a fleet ASW/drone carrier than a multirole carrier after the PLAN is done training pilots on them.

 

[Totoro]

There is next to ZERO chance J-15s aren't being built as we speak, and haven't been built throughout 2018 at least. With another carrier commissioning around the corner there's a need for at least 24 if not 30+ more airframes. And with the third carrier being built, there's gonna be a need for further 40+ airframes by 2022. That's at least 11 airframes per year, assuming there was indeed a big hiatus in production during 2016/2017.

Logic of "no J-15s because no images available " doesn't apply here, as carriers are clearly being built. It's virtually guaranteed we will indeed suddenly start seeing additional J-15s on the second carrier, throughout 2019 and 2020. And those planes will NOT have been built overnight. PLAN simply did not want anyone to see them earlier than necessary. Just as with PLAAF and J-20, J10 and J16. We've basically lost most ability to track production as new images have all but stopped coming. Doesn't mean the production has ceased.

 

[Bhurki]

There is next to ZERO chance J-15s aren't being built as we speak, and haven't been built throughout 2018 at least. With another carrier commissioning around the corner there's a need for at least 24 if not 30+ more airframes. And with the third carrier being built, there's gonna be a need for further 40+ airframes by 2022. That's at least 11 airframes per year, assuming there was indeed a big hiatus in production during 2016/2017.

Logic of "no J-15s because no images available " doesn't apply here, as carriers are clearly being built. It's virtually guaranteed we will indeed suddenly start seeing additional J-15s on the second carrier, throughout 2019 and 2020. And those planes will NOT have been built overnight. PLAN simply did not want anyone to see them earlier than necessary. Just as with PLAAF and J-20, J10 and J16. We've basically lost most ability to track production as new images have all but stopped coming. Doesn't mean the production has ceased.

There are usually 8-9 airwings operational in USN at any time as opposed to 11 carriers and that too is for guaranting a high replacement ratio.
Number of airwings don't need to rise in exact proportions to carrier numbers at least in the early years.
Since carriers rotate/are-in-maintenance for longer periods, the same airwing can be used on different carriers, and therefore addition of new airframes is not as urgent as percieved.
Although this would limit surge performance incase of emergency deployments, it wouldn't affect operations of a carrier in peace time by all that much.
Even when 3 carriers are operational, their schedules will only allow for 50% possibility of deployment of 2 carriers at the same time and 50% possibility of single carrier at any time.
This means the critical airwing requirement up until launch of 4th carrier will be 2 operational airwings.