J-10 Thread IV

[gelgoog]

Ukraine is an unlikely customer due to:
•The US involvement in Kiev's decision-making process.
•Russia would almost immediately object such an attempt due to the nature of their relationship with China in the long run.
•Ukraine seriously lacks the economic power to proceed with such procurement. Preferring second-hand western aircrafts would do them more good considering roughly 2/3 of the country is in range of Russian air defence systems.

Sorry for sailing off the topic for a moment. My point is that potential customers for J-10, are either poor or lies within the Russian sphere of influence. And I don't actually believe Chinese actually try to market this aircraft. They're more invested in JF-17 story, IMO.

Yeah it is highly unlikely China would supply the fighters. Especially considering Ukraine plans to join NATO eventually.
What is more likely, I think, is that they would get F-16s like other Eastern European countries have done.

The fact is there are many F-16s flooding the market right now. Even more once available F-16s start being replaced en masse with the F-35.

I think Iraq or Iran might make more sense. But Iraq already has F-16 fighters. While Iran, I don't know what to think about their purchases but they don't seem to purchase a lot of weapon systems from China as is.

 

[FactsPlease]

There are still many markets of prospect among Asia and Africa. Top priorities of J10 will be to 1) reducing its maintenance cost, 2) increasing application portfolios (much more versatile) and 3) affordable customized avionics, including network warfare. Many of these, like portfolio in CAS and anti-terror, will align with PLAAF own needs, too. All other issues like finance and training can be taken care of at geopolitical consideration. I still believe the potential of J10.

 

[Lethe]

It is rumored that Bangaledesh is in negotiation to buy a squad (12-18) of J10CE.
This is supposed to cost 1 billion $ in loans + undisclosed sum up front.

We are looking about 75-100 million $+ per piece. That can almost buy you a F-35 if you are on good terms with America.

Public cost figures can be highly misleading without knowing exactly what is included in such a contract. Especially at low unit numbers, the cost of training, munitions, spares, logistics support contracts, etc. can form a significant proportion of total contract cost. On a direct comparison basis I would expect J-10 to be less than half the cost of F-35.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

There are still many markets of prospect among Asia and Africa. Top priorities of J10 will be to 1) reducing its maintenance cost, 2) increasing application portfolios (much more versatile) and 3) affordable customized avionics, including network warfare. Many of these, like portfolio in CAS and anti-terror, will align with PLAAF own needs, too. All other issues like finance and training can be taken care of at geopolitical consideration. I still believe the potential of J10.

Prospective? yes. Realistic ? Not likely. There are few countries in Africa and Asia that has the need for a F-16 type fighter, and even if they did, the F-16 is already made readily available for them. Malaysia is the only one that I can think of that might purchase the J-10 in any significant quantities, assuming if the JF-17 does not cliche the deal first.
And anti-terror missions seldom requires a full capacity warplane to prosecute, an example of this would be the Brazilian Tucano that is tailor suited for this role. China too already markets light fighters of the kind that fulfills the role of anti-terror missions like the JL-10 and JL-9.

 

[Biscuits]

Public cost figures can be highly misleading without knowing exactly what is included in such a contract. Especially at low unit numbers, the cost of training, munitions, spares, logistics support contracts, etc. can form a significant proportion of total contract cost. On a direct comparison basis I would expect J-10 to be less than half the cost of F-35.

It's not the J-10A which is more comparable to a F-16 which may be less than half as expensive as F-35 but an export version of the C variant. All contracts include side content, F-35 ones as well.

 

[Lethe]

Most contracts will include "side items", but exactly what those items are will vary from contract to contract, making direct comparisons unwise.

 

[Mohsin77]

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PLAAF J-10 "likely" to make an appearence in Pakistan's National Day parade on March 23. That would be awesome!

 

[Stratton]

Prospective? yes. Realistic ? Not likely. There are few countries in Africa and Asia that has the need for a F-16 type fighter, and even if they did, the F-16 is already made readily available for them. Malaysia is the only one that I can think of that might purchase the J-10 in any significant quantities, assuming if the JF-17 does not cliche the deal first.
And anti-terror missions seldom requires a full capacity warplane to prosecute, an example of this would be the Brazilian Tucano that is tailor suited for this role. China too already markets light fighters of the kind that fulfills the role of anti-terror missions like the JL-10 and JL-9.

The J-10 has been to LIMA in the form of the August 1st display team, but otherwise CATIC/AVIC have had a low, or even non-existant, profile at the show. Also, Malaysia's LCA RFI was more of a ploy to get foreign aircraft to the show, rather than a genuine acquisition. The MCA contenders (Rafale/SH/Eurofighter) have given up waiting.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

via LKJ86
500th J-10

 

[Dizasta1]

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PLAAF J-10 "likely" to make an appearence in Pakistan's National Day parade on March 23. That would be awesome!

Dare I say if that were a pretext to a J-10C purchase by Pakistan Air Force. I have always thought that this was a great fighter fit for Pakistan Air Force along with JF-17s. But now that the Block-lll is expected to come online this year. I wonder whether there could be a CFT version with Chinese engines that Pakistan Air Force may consider? Whatever the case, the J-10C and the MiG-35s are built for an Air Force like Pakistan's. We shall see what the future holds, hopefully a bright one!