J-10 Thread IV
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
IMHO, it is interesting to note these rumors and announcements...but best to wait for official PRC confirmation before thinking or saying or believe it is a done deal.
To date, and to my knowledge, there is none for the J-10 dale to Iran, or the SU-35 sale to China.
To date, and to my knowledge, there is none for the J-10 dale to Iran, or the SU-35 sale to China.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
Not if CAC is willing to make the J-10 malleable enough to cater to a customer's specific needs, though. That would require CAC to design and build such an aircraft after a customer has ordered it.
Fair enough, although I would say that any Middle Eastern country with a pro-Beijing stance and large reserves of crude would be a diplomatic jackpot for the Chinese. As far as I know, the Chinese did push for Iran to purchase the J-8s back in the 1980s.
It's better to simply keep an eye on the J-10 at military exhibitions. I'm not buying the Iran story, but I still have an inkling that the Chinese have the intent to export the J-10, in the near future if not now.
Sure, but we do not have any indications that J-10 was designed with that kind of export-modular capability in mind.
I've not heard anything about China wanting Iran to purchase J-8s before.
Ultimately J-10 will be exported, but the fact remains that at present they have not been and we've heard no reliable evidence that suggests any kind of date for which export will occur.
I do think Pakistan is definitely a viable and safe buyer for J-10s, but they are a bit of a unique case.
Development of j10b has been very slow and one wonders if say by 2020 or even by 2025 j 20 and j31 are in production what relevence will j10b have by than unless it gives capabilities around 80 % to that of j31 its not going to be a success.
vesicles
Colonel
Huh? The J-10B is already in production. Plus, the J10B would be the backbone of PLAAF, the "low-end" of China's high-low combo, while the J-20 will be the "high-end" of the combo. The two do not conflict each other. Even if the J-20 goes into production, its high price tag would mean that they can't have many of them. They need the J-10A/B's as the backbone of their AF. as with the J-31, there is no indication, whatsoever, that the PLAAF will even consider it.
I think PLAAF will consider J-31s after PLAN enjoys some success with it.
Back to topic.
To date, to my knowledge, there is also no official indication that the PLAN is considering the J-31.
We will just have to wait and see.
Time will most certainly tell.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
We'll have to wait until 2016, when the new variant supposedly comes out.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Rumour is the PLANAF is more interested in a carrier capable J20, which isn't all that unreasonable since its smaller that the Su27/J15.
Having a common airframe between the air force and navy would also lend itself to all sorts of benefits in terms of economies of scale, commonality of training and spares availability etc.
In a way, rather than follow the American example and ditch the amazing F22 and buy into the indisputably less capable F35, for around the same cost if not more per plane as the F22, better to just make the J20 into the all services 5th gen from the get go.
That does, unfortunately leave the J31 out in the cold, but if the F22/F35 saga is anything to go by, its probably the smart move.
China isn't going all stealth, and the likes of the J10B and subsequent versions should be more than enough to meet China's "lo" tier fighter needs, especially when they will be able to call upon J20 support for anything they cannot deal with themselves.
Ultimately, if the J20 vs J31 performance to cost ratios follows a similar trend as that of the F22 vs F35, it would be better to get, say 500 J20s, with the balance of the air force made up of 1000+ J10B, J16s etc, rather than have a force of 100 odd J20s and a thousand J31s in my book.
That way, you got enough to your top dog fighters to go around that they are never spread too thinly, and are pretty much always available to support your legacy birds, and your legacy birds can make up the numbers to perform all the grunt work after your stealths have finished all the hard, first day of war missions.
If you really want to cover your bases, you could also invest some of the savings from not buying 1000+ expensive J31s and invest that in a dedicated stealth bomber/striker, that will be better at taking out the nasty ground targets than the J20 or the J31.
I have always held the view that all this multi-role leaning is a bad idea waiting to bite someone on the backside. It is a compromise to appease the bean counters and dilutes the real key capability of fighters (to kill enemy fighters and secure mastery of the skies) so everything can be seen as playing an active role in the kinds of soft wars the west has gotten used to fighting against hopelessly outclass foes.
It could prove to be a massive false economy if those multirole birds find themselves faced off against an enemy with equivalent technology and training, but who's machines and pilots have specialised mainly or even solely on air combat.
All other things being equal, a fighter that has made zero compromises from being the very best air superiority fighter that could be designed is going to had a decisive edge against one that was designed with other considerations in mind, and so had to make allowances and compromises to suit (F22 vs F35).
Similarly, of two pilots of the same skill and who spends the same number of hours training, the one who spends 100% of his time training for air combat is going to be better at it than his twin who also spent significant portions of his time training for ground attack, anti-shipping etc.