Israel vs. Iran ... A real nuke issue

Nukes are the issue and Israel/Iran are the nations in focus. First to note that a survey of 3,850 respondents in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates found 80 percent "consider Israel and the United States the two biggest external threats to their security. Only six percent cited Iran." US media has been non-stop Iran's Nuke threat just like before with Iraq's Nukes. American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is perhaps the most powerful lobby in the U.S., so the pressure for military option is highly likely coming from Israel. Israel is thought to have between 200-400 nukes(if 400 that is more than China or France). Before you attack, try to take out some important military personal. There were some recent attempts to take out Iranian military personal (yesterday).

I figure if the US does not directly attack Iran. Israel will attack Iran with US military support. The US military will just provide the weapons like in Lebanon. Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman said (this month):

"We will have to face the Iranians alone, because Israel cannot remain with its arms folded, waiting patiently for Iran to develop non-conventional weapons".

1) My questions are how would Israel and how could Israel attack Iran?
2) Would the US militarily support Israel?
3) How does Israel navy compare with Iran's navy?
4) How does Israel's airforce compare to Iran's airforce?
5) Iran is a hugh country compared to west bank and Lebanon, could Israel logistically destroy the infrastructure of Iran and its nuclear fascilities ensuring that Iran's Economy Sinks and Nuke program does also.
6) Would they use nukes? I mean if they did today, what would happen? I think nothing. They would call it a mistake. They would blame a few scapegoats and it would be over. Israel currently denies having nukes and if they did used them they would really scare all the countries around them.

alwaysfresh said:

I figure if the US does not directly attack Iran. Israel will attack Iran with US military support. The US military will just provide the weapons like in Lebanon. Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman said (this month):

"We will have to face the Iranians alone, because Israel cannot remain with its arms folded, waiting patiently for Iran to develop non-conventional weapons".

1) My questions are how would Israel and how could Israel attack Iran?
2) Would the US militarily support Israel?
3) How does Israel navy compare with Iran's navy?
4) How does Israel's airforce compare to Iran's airforce?
5) Iran is a hugh country compared to west bank and Lebanon, could Israel logistically destroy the infrastructure of Iran and its nuclear fascilities ensuring that Iran's Economy Sinks and Nuke program does also.
6) Would they use nukes? I mean if they did today, what would happen? I think nothing. They would call it a mistake. They would blame a few scapegoats and it would be over. Israel currently denies having nukes and if they did used them they would really scare all the countries around them.

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That Israel would actually attack Iran is quite an assumption, but as a hypothetical it's worth discussing. A factor that you outlined in your scenario that has actually changed by now is Israel's denial of nukes. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates came under Israeli criticism for basically stating outright that they had nukes. Of course this was just confirming what everyone else had believed in the first place, but now Israel does not have plausible deniability when pressed on this issue.

1) As to how Israel would attack Iran, it seems the only militarily viable plan would be to launch a full-scale airstrike. Some American right-wing idiot recently advocated "quietly" assassinating Iranian scientists working on the project. It was stupid to believe Americans could pull it off, and probably equally stupid to believe the Israelis could. How many Farsi-speaking Ninja do they have lying around?

2) The US would probably continue to basically give Israel heavily subsidized weapons like it always does, enabling it to fight without much strain to the economy.

3) Navy comparison: I'm uninformed.

4) Air Force comparison: Hands down Israel has an advantage, but as the Iranians would be playing defense they have home turf advantage which they can utilize quite effectively.

5) Could Israel destroy all nuclear energy or weapons related programs? I highly doubt it. The odds are stacked against them considering this is an incomplete scenario situation. The indiscriminate bombing against Lebanon showed that you can certainly kill a bunch of civilians easily, but miss all your true targets.

Whether or not hardliners get their way remains to be seen, but strategically preemptively attacking Iran would be a serious blunder on Israel's part, hence my skepticism at actually seeing it happen, unless the US does it first.

3) Navy comparison: I'm uninformed.

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Those navies would not oppose ecah other because the Iranian navy is bottled necked in the Presian Gulf. The Isreali navy maybe better equipped but the Iranians may have more ships and other sea craft.

Any Israeli attack on Iran would have to be an airstrike as it would be the only option available to Israel.However it would be limited in scale as Israeli airforce only has limited air to air refuelling capacity,perhaps by f15 &16's using the 'buddy refuelling' systems,perhaps aimed at key installations.
Israeli airforce appears to be qaulitively superior using f15 &16's,also has greater combat experience,vs mig29 &27's,& f14 tomcats.
Israel could do it,but on a limited scale,and very likely,if it where to happen,with US support logisticaly,perhaps offering Diego Garcia as a pit stop on the return journey,and also air to air refuelling.
Seem to recall reading in either Time or Newsweek,that a large no of Iranian nuclear facilities are buried v deep,beyond the reach of conventional bunker buster bombs,and would require nuclear attack,perhaps someone with greater knowledge could clear that up?
Also does anyone have any knowledge of the Iranian aircraft the 'SHAFAQ',is it a true stealth plane etc?

Israel could do it,but on a limited scale,and very likely,if it where to happen,with US support logisticaly,perhaps offering Diego Garcia as a pit stop on the return journey,and also air to air refuelling.

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It makes no sense for the possible strike aircraft to go all the way to Diego Garcia to refuel. Because they would have to refuel just to get to Diego Garcia. Check your map.

More realistically USAF KC-10 & KC-135 could offer in flight refueling if need be on the return journey to Isreal.

I hope there is no nuclear strike on Iran by Isreal or the US.

Diego Garcia out of question then What about Israeli aircraft refuelling on US carriers?However on reflection,if the Us is so obviously involved they may as well be in on the strike side of things as well as Iran will retaliate against the US as well!
In terms of retaliatory capability what does Iran have available,besides aircraft?Can the Ghadr 10 ICBM target the USA?

lcortez said:

Diego Garcia out of question then What about Israeli aircraft refuelling on US carriers?However on reflection,if the Us is so obviously involved they may as well be in on the strike side of things as well as Iran will retaliate against the US as well!
In terms of retaliatory capability what does Iran have available,besides aircraft?Can the Ghadr 10 ICBM target the USA?

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As far as I know Israel does not have carrier-capable aircraft. Regarding your second assertion, a strike on Iran by Israel may very well (and justifiably) be seen as an attack by the US as well. Currently Iran does not have any capability to directly hit US soil, which is why arguments for war are logically weak.

bd popeye said:

Those navies would not oppose ecah other because the Iranian navy is bottled necked in the Presian Gulf. The Isreali navy maybe better equipped but the Iranians may have more ships and other sea craft.

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I think it quite possible that Israeli Dolphin Subs will launch Cruise Missiles against Iranian targets. That makes sense as Iranian don't have suffiecient assets to effectively pursue subs away from it's coast and it makes Israeli incursion a two pronged attack which could prove to be more effective than just an aerial attack.
My 2 pennies.

1) My questions are how would Israel and how could Israel attack Iran?

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A long-range air strike would be the best option.

2) Would the US militarily support Israel?

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Doubtful. The U.S. may prevent action being taken against Israel, but I don't think they'll support the operation.

3) How does Israel navy compare with Iran's navy?

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Neither is really a factor. Iran's navy is probably superior in several areas, but neither will actually come into conflict currently.

4) How does Israel's airforce compare to Iran's airforce?

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Well, the best capability Iran has to counter the Israelis would be the Phoenix missile on the F-14 Tomcats. Right now that would probably damn any Israeli attack, unless it included AWACS. I'm not to certain about how Iran's AWACS project is going, though. Perhaps AWACS will not even help Israel.

A squadron of F-14s is based around Bushehr, along with two other squadrons of other aircraft and it undoubtedly has Tor-M1s stationed around it. Taking out that facility would be crucial to stopping Iran's program.

5) Iran is a hugh country compared to west bank and Lebanon, could Israel logistically destroy the infrastructure of Iran and its nuclear fascilities ensuring that Iran's Economy Sinks and Nuke program does also.

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Nope. The paths Israel can take are severely limited and they'll likely be unable to take them more than once. Israel might be able to get two or three groups of aircraft to strike over Iran, but it will probably be a one-time deal, which is not even close to enough to do anything but surface damage to Iran's nuclear program.

Only by using nukes could that achievement be made.

6) Would they use nukes? I mean if they did today, what would happen? I think nothing. They would call it a mistake. They would blame a few scapegoats and it would be over. Israel currently denies having nukes and if they did used them they would really scare all the countries around them.

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They'd give Iran perfect justification for a nuclear weapons program and subsequently, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. It would also justify Turkey and Syria. Israel would be stupid for launching any strike on Iran, conventional or nuclear.

I think the only effective military option for Israel is a nuclear strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Attacking the Osirak reactor in 1981 was pushing the limits of IAF deep strike capability. There is no way they could be effective against multiple, underground, heavily fortified sites associated with the Iranian program at an even farther range, even if they used subs armed with cruise missles as well as aircraft. No way. Thus the only effective option is a BM attack. Obviously, that is not viable for political reasons. So really Israel's only options are an ineffective conventional strike or leaving the problem to the Americans, which is probably a better choice.