ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

solarz

Brigadier
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

If the Islamic extremists continue to be pre-occupied with each other then that's great for the rest of us. But if one side is to prevail then I would bet on the Sunni Saudi-led camp having the edge over the Iran-led Shiite camp given that the Saudis have un-embargoed access to all the world's weapons exporters, a much better economic position, and the practical blind-eye they have from most Western governments including the US.

I think this is a dangerous misconception. Constant fighting will only produce more combat experienced extremists, not less. Only by decisively crushing these organizations can we ensure some peace, and if we want that peace to last a while, we would need to completely eradicate them.
 

delft

Brigadier
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

I do not think Turkey would have to "switch alliances," at all to do what you propose.

They could easily say they were ensuring that Iraq did not fall into the hands of Al Queda and were helping stop that to protect NATO interests...and at the same time keep Iran from gaining all the prestige and power from stopping it.

This plan might actually be something Obama could go with because it would be the epitomy of his "leading from behind," strategy of letting others take the risk.
Turkey's creditor Saudi Arabia sees this as a proxy war against Iran. The cooperation would act against the US effort to contain Iran and how would Washington defend support for such a move in Riyadh? How would Washington defend to itself and to several of its clients an end to the violence against Syria? However it would strengthen Turkey's and Iran's positions in the Middle East greatly.
 
Last edited:

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

Iran may be willing to cooperate with America over the ISIS uprising in Iraq, according to an Iranian official. Wow, talk about strange bed fellows.

Reuters - Shia Muslim Iran is so alarmed by Sunni insurgent gains in Iraq that it may be willing to cooperate with Washington in helping Baghdad fight back, a senior Iranian official told Reuters.
The idea is being discussed internally among the Islamic Republic's leadership, the senior Iranian official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official had no word on whether the idea had been raised with any other party.
Officials say Iran will send its neighbour advisers and weaponry, although probably not troops, to help its ally Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki check what Tehran sees as a profound threat to regional stability, officials and analysts say.
Islamist militants have captured swathes of territory including the country's second biggest city Mosul.
Tehran is open to the possibility of working with the United States to support Baghdad, the senior official said.
"We can work with Americans to end the insurgency in the Middle East," the official said, referring to events in Iraq.
"We are very influential in Iraq, Syria and many other countries."
For many years, Iran has been aggrieved by what it sees as US efforts to marginalise it. Tehran wants to be recognised as a significant player in regional security.
Relations between Iran and Washington have improved modestly since the 2013 election of President Hassan Rouhani, who promised "constructive engagement" with the world.
And while Tehran and the United States pursue talks to resolve the Islamic state's decade-old nuclear standoff with the West, they also acknowledge some common threats, including the rise of al Qaeda-style militancy across the Middle East.
On Thursday, President Barack Obama said the United States was not ruling out air strikes to help Baghdad fight the insurgents, in what would be the first US armed intervention in Iraq since the end of the US-led war.
Rouhani on Thursday strongly condemned what he called violent acts by insurgent groups in the Middle East.
"Today, in our region, unfortunately, we are witnessing violence, killing, terror and displacement," Rouhani said.
"Iran will not tolerate the terror and violence ... we will fight against terrorism, factionalism and violence."
Asked on Thursday about Iranian comments, US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said: "Clearly, we've encouraged them in many cases to play a constructive role. But I don't have any other readouts or views from our end to portray here today."
Fearing Iraq's war could spill into Iran, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has urged the international community to back Maliki's administration "in its fight against terrorism".
Brigadier-General Mohammad Hejazi said Iran was ready to supply Iraq with "military equipment or consultations," the Tasnim news agency reported. "I do not think the deployment of Iranian troops would be necessary," he was quoted as adding.
The senior Iranian official said Iran was extremely worried about the advance of ISIS, also a major force in the war against Iran's close ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, carving out a swathe of Syria territory along the Iraqi border.
"The danger of extremist Sunni terrorist in Iraq and the region is increasing ... There have been several high-ranking security meetings since yesterday in Tehran," the official said.
"We are on alert and we also follow the developments in Iraq very closely."


I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

ISIS fighters are moving close tO Baghdad. If Baghdad falls we're talking a whole new round of flustercluck!!

Looks like they're going to move a 2nd carrier to the Gulf.

Possibly Truman and Ike that'll be stationed in that region for the time being.
 
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

The same players, the same game, just a expanding ball park. Iran will back and send its Quds to slowly puppet the Iraqi state government into a extension of the grand Islamic Republic.
ISIS and AQ will push as far as it can to establish a Caliphate and the Kurds, Christians and Jews stuck in the middle will be fighting both sides just to survive.

On the other hand the Kurds, Christians, and Jews can let or help the two camps wear each other out.

I do not think Turkey would have to "switch alliances," at all to do what you propose.

They could easily say they were ensuring that Iraq did not fall into the hands of Al Queda and were helping stop that to protect NATO interests...and at the same time keep Iran from gaining all the prestige and power from stopping it.

This plan might actually be something Obama could go with because it would be the epitomy of his "leading from behind," strategy of letting others take the risk.

I agree with your point regarding Turkey.

If "leading from behind" means fewer risks, less expenses and less debt, less casualties, and letting other countries deal with their own problems then it sounds good for the US.

I think this is a dangerous misconception. Constant fighting will only produce more combat experienced extremists, not less. Only by decisively crushing these organizations can we ensure some peace, and if we want that peace to last a while, we would need to completely eradicate them.

True enough, but that means if they are weeds, poisoning their roots rather than cutting them off above ground. Their sponsors will need to be targeted and weakened.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

And that, IMHO, is their entire objective.

A growing Al Queda led Calliphate. Right now it makes up half of Syria and haf of Iraq. They hope to defeat all of Iraq...but will have a tought to impossible time of controlling the South (IMHO).

They also hope to defeat Assad.

At some point, they will form (and are foriming) a defacto country. That will bode badly for the future in terms of extremists and terror camps and breeding grounds.

I expect they will ally themselves with the Taliban, and that the Taliban and affiliates of these people will make a push to completely control Afghanistan as soon as the US pulls out.

Syria is fighting them. I expect Iran will try and co-op them or bring them into its sphere. If Iran is successful in doing this...Iran will then itself be an effectual calliphate from the middle of Syria to the Pakistan border. If Pakistan falls to them...they will then be nuclear armed and even larger. THey are also making in roads into Africa.

Sadly, I believe all of this is possible in current geo-strategic situation in the Mid-East.

Jeff,

One of the biggest difference in the Islamic world is on the issue of the Caliphate... it is mostly a Sunni believe. The Shia do not subscribe to that type of theology.
The Caliphate is mainly an AQ, ISIS, Taliban (most terrorist orgs) dream. Iran/Hezbollah/Syria (Assad) etc as we all know subscribe to the Shia side of things.

Most Westerners also do not realize that Iranians are also not Arabs.. they are Persians and while most in the Western hemishpere may not care, it is actually a very important distinction to them and must be understood by forces going into that part of the world.

Personally I think that's part of the issue why we made many mistakes in our foreign policy there because the powers to be have not truly understand the dynamics and tribal differences of the deep divide between Sunni/Shia and Arabs and Persians.


It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.

Sun Tzu - Art of War .. Chapter 3.
 
Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

No Pan, your post is an example of grown men, not allowing Barack Obama to be a grown man and accept the responsibility for his own policies and actions, he and he alone, orchestrated the abandonment of Iraq, as well as re-engaged in Afghanistan, which will very shortly lead to the new governments abandonment, and a chorus of enablers will continue parroting "zombie like", its George Bush's fault, its George Bush's fault....... When does Barack Obama stop getting a pass on his failed policy, and take responsibility like a grown man, HE has been President of the United States for 6 years now!

This is not partisan, this is real life, where grown men have to face their own problems!

Fair enough once the history of the problem is acknowledged.

Speaking of acknowledgement I notice a major lack of mentioning Saudi Arabia on this entire forum when we are talking about Sunni terrorists who Saudi Arabia is the most likely and the most powerful sponsor of. What say anybody???
 

solarz

Brigadier
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

The current ISIS offensive is reminiscent of the Islamic Courts offensive in Somalia, and of the AQIM offensive in Mali. In each of the previous cases, a foreign military intervention was required to route the Islamists: Ethiopia in Somalia, and France in Mali.

Will we now see an Iranian intervention?
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Jeff,

One of the biggest difference in the Islamic world is on the issue of the Caliphate... it is mostly a Sunni believe. The Shia do not subscribe to that type of theology.

The Caliphate is mainly an AQ, ISIS, Taliban (most terrorist orgs) dream. Iran/Hezbollah/Syria (Assad) etc as we all know subscribe to the Shia side of things.
This is about the 3rd time I have responded to this. But what the hay...the more the merrier...and clearly my intial post was not as clear as it should have been.

But I did I indicate in that post that Iran might try to coopt the ISIS activities...that does not mean they would join them and be friends.

I realize they are at each others throats and I understand the theological reasons within Islam between the Shias and Sunnis for that to be so. Iran is predominantly Shia and has its own visions of Islam's spread. It supports many terror groups in their fight against the west. It is the largest state sponsor of such activities.

Most of Islam is however Sunni and some of the really radical segments of it make up many terrorists groups. That does not mean that the fundamental Shias are our friends...but it does mean that they can be a part of the solution in fighting and stopping the even more radical ISIS in Iraq.

As it is, Iran has now moved into Iraq with two battaions of its Qud forces and are apparently involved with taking on the ISIS in Tikriet.

This is perfectly understandable that Iran would seek to become involved in this. They want to improve their stake and reputation in the entire area. I believe the PM of Iraq has always had a strong affinity to Iran and this is the opportunity to make the most of it.

I would like to see Turkey get involved and come in to help with Mosul. Not to claim territory for Turkey, but to enhance its position in the overall Mid East, and as a needed counterbalance, IMHO, to Iran. As I stated, it would also dovetail with Obama's lead from behind strategy.

Turkey is a NATO ally and is more aligned with the Mid East position that is a counter wieght to Iran. It would not be in Turkey's or the US's or NATO's best interst for Iran to come in and be the only heavy weight stopping the ISIS.

Anyhow, that is how I see it.
 
Top