ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

delft

Brigadier
From AMN, interesting:
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Russian jets carry out airstrikes to aid Turkish Army in Aleppo’s Al-Bab
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- 26/12/2016

BEIRUT, LEBANON (8:00 A.M.) - The Russian Air Force carried out its first airstrikes over the key city of Al-Bab on Sunday, marking the first time during this war that their aircraft have directly aided the Turkish Army.

According to a military source at the Kuweires Airport, a group of Russian Su-24 and Su-34 fighters jets carried out airstrikes over Al-Bab in east Aleppo, resulting in the destruction of several mechanisms that belonged to the so-called "Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham" (ISIS).

Despite Russian air assistance on Sunday, the Turkish Army was unable to maintain control over the Al-Farouq Hospital and Jabal Al-Aqil after the Islamic State terrorists scored a direct hit with their VBIED (vehicle borne improvised explosive device).

The Russian and Turkish governments are currently on good terms for the first time in nearly a year, putting an end to the differences they had over the downing of the Su-24 fighter jet in northern Latakia last year.
 
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leads to Wed Dec 28, 2016 | 12:11pm EST
Turkey and Russia have ceasefire plan for Syria, says Ankara
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Turkey and Russia have prepared an agreement for a ceasefire in Syria, Turkey's foreign minister said on Wednesday, adding that Ankara would not give up its opposition to President Bashar al-Assad staying on as leader.

The five-year-old Syrian civil war raged on, with heavy casualties reported in the siege of a town held by Islamic State, and the Russian embassy in Damascus shelled.

Turkish minister Mevlut Cavusoglu's comments appeared to signal tentative progress in talks aimed at reaching a truce. While the insistence on Assad's departure could complicate negotiations with his biggest backer, Russia, another Turkish official did not rule out a transitional role for the Syrian president.

Russia, Iran and Turkey said last week they were ready to help broker a peace deal after adopting a declaration in Moscow setting out principles that any agreement should adhere to. Russia has said the next talks are set for Astana, the Kazakh capital.

"There are two texts ready on a solution in Syria. One is about a political resolution and the other is about a ceasefire. They can be implemented any time," Cavusoglu told reporters in Ankara. He said Syria's opposition would never back Assad.

"The whole world knows it is not possible for there to be a political transition with Assad, and we also all know that it is impossible for these people to unite around Assad."

The Kremlin said it could not comment on reports of an agreement.

Last week, Russia's foreign minister said Russia, Iran and Turkey had agreed the priority in Syria was to fight terrorism and not to remove Assad's government - comments that suggested a shift by Turkey, which has long pushed for Assad to go.

ZONES OF INFLUENCE

Sources told Reuters that, under an outline deal between the three countries, Syria could be divided into informal zones of regional power and Assad would remain president for at least a few years.

A senior Turkish government official said on Wednesday that future discussions would likely hash out Assad's role.

"We put importance on the establishment of a transitional government and that it would be one that meets the demands of the Syrian people," the official said. "Whether or not Assad will take place in the government will be discussed in the coming period."

Assad will not be attending the talks in Astana, which are likely to be held at undersecretary level "at most", the official added.

A senior rebel official said Moscow wanted a key rebel stronghold near the capital to be excluded from the ceasefire, a demand unacceptable to the rebels.

"Discussions are ongoing, with Turkish sponsorship, but the Russian enemy is trying to exclude the Eastern Ghouta (suburb) of Damascus from any attempt towards a comprehensive ceasefire in Syria that would be accepted by the revolution's factions," said Munir al Sayal of Ahrar al-Sham.

"It's premature to talk about chances of success. The Russian enemy still has no clear position and repeats the regime's demands."

Sayal said it would be futile to hold talks unless the ultimate objective was to end Assad's rule.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that the Syrian government was consulting with the opposition ahead of possible peace talks, while a Saudi-backed opposition group said it knew nothing of the negotiations but supported a ceasefire.

WASHINGTON EXCLUDED

Russian officials have said invitations to participants for the Astana talks have not been sent out and the time has yet to be decided.

The talks would not include the United States and would be distinct from separate, intermittent U.N.-brokered negotiations.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday that U.N. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura had spoken by phone with Lavrov and supported the efforts to establish a ceasefire and new peace talks.

The Syrian opposition's main political body on Tuesday urged rebel groups to cooperate with "sincere regional efforts" to reach a ceasefire deal but said it had not been invited to any conference.

The Turkish military said on Wednesday it had "neutralised" 44 Islamic State militants and wounded 117 as part of its operation in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab.

Rebels supported by Turkish troops have laid siege to al-Bab for weeks under an operation to sweep the Sunni hardliners and Kurdish fighters from its Syrian border.

Syrian Kurdish groups and their allies are set to approve a blueprint for a system of federal government in northern Syria this week, Kurdish officials said, reaffirming their plans for autonomy.

Kurdish groups have carved out self-governing regions since the start of the war in 2011, though Kurdish leaders say an independent state is not their goal.

The trend has alarmed neighbouring Turkey, fearful of separatism among its own large Kurdish population. The United States opposed the federal plan, first announced in March. President Assad also opposes federalism.
 

delft

Brigadier
From The "Independent":
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Syrian regime signs truce deal with rebels guaranteed by Russia, says President Putin
But terror groups, such as Isis and al-Qaeda affiliates, are excluded from peace talks

Russian President
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has announced the signing of a truce deal between the Syrian regime and the opposition.

The Kremlin leader said the ceasefire agreement, to begin from midnight and guaranteed by Russia and Turkey's governments, will be followed by peace talks between Syrian President
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and the seven major armed opposition groups.

The negotiations however exclude terrorist groups and Mr Putin said he will continue "fighting international terrorism in Syria" and supporting Mr Assad's military.

The Syrian state news agency SANA has also followed with confirmation, and a statement said the military command "declares a comprehensive nationwide cessation of hostilities as of midnight".

It said the ceasefire comes after the "sucessess achieved by the armed forces" in a thinly veiled reference to the capture and
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earlier this month.

An opposition spokesman also said: "The National Coalition expresses support for the agreement and urges all parties to abide by it."

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu says the truce will include 62,000 rebel fighters across the country.

The Russian military has reportedly set up a hotline with its Turkish counterpart to monitor compliance.

Mr Putin's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said that President-elect
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administration will be invited to the Syrian peace process once he takes office.

Formal talks will take place in the Kazakhstan capital of Astana in what are a "complementary step" to the United Nations-backed negotiations in Geneva.

If the truce deal is respected, it could end a
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that has killed potentially more than 430,000 and forced around 11 million from their homes.
The result of cooperation by Russia, Iran and Turkey with the Syrian authorities and presumably Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
 
From The "Independent":
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...
DECEMBER 30, 2016
Syria after the Ceasefire
Syrian_Civil_War_December_30_2016_a.png

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Dec 16, 2016
... I won't armchair-general Rebels/Turks, but as I said before, my imagination of the second-biggest NATO army activity had been completely different https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...o-oped-no-politics.t6913/page-479#post-426281
totally different than what I thought, just one example:

Saturday at 7:22 AM

Yesterday at 10:46 PM
now I read in Twitter the Turks at/around Al-Bab reportedly had tactical issues ... (tens KIA due to VBIEDs; a
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captured by ISIL ... I have no way to verify, but if those news are true, they'll likely appear in the blogs I follow etc.)

... and from what I figured, they even had temporarily lost "Hospital Hill" (https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...o-oped-no-politics.t6913/page-492#post-428915)! now are saying they're back:

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Defense Minister says
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backed
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captured
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hill from
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in
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's
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C0Yv1V_UoAErXbz.jpg

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and apparently ISIL repelled them (all the soooo cooool Turkish videos with their armor, aircraft, ... just common!) again from "Hospital Hill":
C0109SHVQAAjiEr.jpg:large

which is the outer perimeter of Al-Bab!

(according to related blog by "Cassad"
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Turkish spin doctors say ISIL suffered 391 KIA during the assault of Al-Bab by Rebels/Turks; and
ISIL spin doctors say Rebels/Turks suffered between 520 and 550 KIA, and between 200 and 250 civilians inside Al-Bab were killed as collateral damage during said assault;
"Cassad" also says Turks are pulling reinforcements: units of the 2nd and 7th Armies)
 
Last edited:
haven't seen supposedly cool pictures from Mosul posted here for a while, so I did some digging now ... I've read in Russian Internet the Iraqis are bleeding against ISIL there (I'll leave it at that) ... the main stream Western article (my top-one google-search
mosul+offensive
hit):
Iraqi Forces Begin Second Phase Of Massive Mosul Offensive
Security forces are in locked in a fierce battle to take back the city from ISIS.
Iraqi security forces on Thursday began the second phase of their offensive against Islamic State militants in Mosul, pushing from three directions into eastern districts where the battle has been deadlocked for nearly a month.


Since the offensive to capture Mosul began 10 weeks ago, counter-terrorism forces have retaken a quarter of the city, the jihadists’ last major stronghold in Iraq, but their advance has been slow and troops on other fronts have made little progress.

The campaign, the biggest ground operation in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein, entered its first significant pause earlier this month for a planned “operational refit.”

But on Thursday, more than 5,000 soldiers and militarized federal police troops who had redeployed from Mosul’s southern outskirts entered half a dozen southeastern neighborhoods, while counter-terrorism forces advanced in al-Quds and Karama districts after receiving reinforcements.

Army forces pushed simultaneously towards the northern city limits. U.S. military advisers were seen watching operations.

“At 0700 this morning the three fronts began advancing towards the city center. The operation is ongoing today and tomorrow and until we liberate the eastern side of the city completely,” Lieutenant General Ali Freiji, who was overseeing army operations in the north, told Reuters.

The fall of Mosul would probably spell the end for Islamic State’s ambition to rule over millions of people in a self-styled caliphate, but fighters could still mount a traditional insurgency in Iraq, and plot or inspire attacks on the West.

An officer from an elite Interior Ministry unit said on Thursday it was advancing alongside federal police in Mosul’s Intisar district. Islamic State resisted with sniper and machine gun fire, he said.

A plume of white smoke, likely to be from an air strike, rose from a southeastern district on Thursday morning while at the northern front heavy gunfire was audible and a suicide car bomb was disabled by the Iraqi army before reaching its target.

State TV said Islamic State defenses were collapsing in the areas of Salam, Intisar, Wahda, Palestine and al-Quds and that fighters’ bodies filled the streets there.

The government’s accounts are difficult to confirm since the authorities have increasingly restricted the foreign news media’s access to the battle fronts and areas retaken from Islamic State in and around Mosul without providing a reason.

The military has not entered the city’s western side, whose built-up markets and narrow alleyways dating back more than two millennia will likely complicate advances.

DEEPER U.S. ENGAGEMENT

The battle for Mosul involves 100,000 Iraqi troops, members of the Kurdish security forces and Shi’ite militiamen.

U.S. commanders have said in recent weeks that their military advisers, part of an international coalition fighting Islamic State, will embed more extensively with Iraqi forces.

Some of them were spotted on a rooftop behind the front lines on Thursday, advising Iraqi commanders and watching over the operations.

An army colonel said Iraqi forces had suffered few casualties so far.

“The orders from the senior commanders are clear: no halting, no retreat until we reach the fourth bridge and link up with counter-terrorism units,” he said.

The coalition bombed the last remaining bridge connecting the eastern and western parts of Mosul late on Monday in a bid to block Islamic State from redeploying and resupplying its fighters across the Tigris River.

“The enemy is currently isolated inside the left (eastern) bank of Mosul,” Yahia Rassol, a military spokesman, said on state TV. “In the coming days, Iraqi forces will liberate the entire left bank of Mosul and after that we will tackle the right.”

The United Nations has previously expressed concern that the destruction of Mosul’s bridges could obstruct the evacuation of civilians. Up to 1.5 million are thought to remain inside.

Three residents emerged from a northern village on Thursday, including an old man who sat down in the road and wept. He said his wife had been shot dead by Islamic State when she went to collect water a day earlier. Iraqi forces searched the civilians and let them continue to a nearby village.

Mosul, the largest city held by Islamic State anywhere across its once vast territorial holdings in Iraq and neighboring Syria, has been held by the group since its fighters drove the U.S.-trained Iraqi army out in June 2014.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who previously pledged to retake Mosul by the end of the year, said this week it would take another three months to rout Islamic State in Iraq.

The operation has been slowed by concern to avoid casualties among civilians, who despite food and water shortages have mostly stayed in their homes rather than fleeing as was initially expected. More than 114,00 have been displaced so far, according to the United Nations.
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