ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Looks like the Turkish and Saudi military's build up forced the Russian to rethink their role in Syria

RSAF F15 eagles had been arriving at Incirlink air base and it's better to withdraw under false victory than leave like it did in afghanistan 1989

Saudis had alreay told the Americans they were going to supply stinger missiles to rebels, the stinger is any helicopter pilots worst nightmare even more so if the chopper is a Hind
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I wouldn't count your chickens before they hatch.

The Russian withdrawal is far from total, there is and will remain a sizeable Russian complement in Syria, and any Turkish or Saudi military adventurism in Syria still runs the risk of bring them into direct combat with the Russians.

The Russian drawdown is certainly unexpected. But it doesn't actually change the dynamics in the region much, except maybe in Russia's favour.

Russia was never in a position to mount an effective direct counter against a determined Turkish/Saudi campaign in Syria given the geographic realities involved.

In fact, the drawdown almost feels like a bait for the Turkish and Saudi military.

The peace process is in place, the Russians are taking their newest and most capable toys home, but leaving enough forces in theatre to act as a tripwire where any Turkist/Saudi military adventurism inside Syria would almost certainly force them to attack Russian forces directly.

So, if Turkey or Saudi Arabia goes into Syria now, they will be seen as the clear aggressors who destroyed the nescant peace process and attacked Russian forces without provocation or justification. At a time when the west, especially key European NATO members, are up to their eyeballs with Syrian refugees and would be none too pleased to face the prospect of an escalating conflict and more refugees just as it looks like things might be starting to ease up.

That will give Russia a near blank cheque to retaliate as they see fit.

Other than the token bait force left in place for Turkey and Saudia Arabia to attack to give Russia the perfect pretext to hit back, Turkish and Saudi military options against Russian targets are extremely limited, whereas the far superior Russian long range strike capabilities gives them plenty of reach to hit targets deep in Turkish and Saudi territory with NATO almost certain to leave Turkey flapping in the breeze in such a scenario, since the already unsympathetic western public opinion towards Turkey and SA would positively turn toxic and hostile in the event of such naked and unprovoked aggression.

And the Russians are almost certain to hit more than military targets, especially in the case of SA. Cruise missiles + oil wells/refineries = Russian oil and gas profits.

The Turks and Saudis would have to be delusional and/or stupid to go into Syria now.
 

delft

Brigadier
Many of the foreign armed and sponsored politicians have signed up to the ceasefire. Those reneging on that would show themselves to be allies of Daesh and Al Nusra and offer themselves to be destroyed. SAA can now concentrate on cutting Daesh off from Turkey. So Turkey and KSA are in a hurry to prevent that - if they can - I don't think they are ready to do so. At the same time Turkey has made itself impopular in Europe by its sending more than a million refugees into Europe last year and more now. It is also terrorising its Kurdish citizens and abolishing freedom of the press. The talks between Turkey and EU about the refugees are immensely impopular with many member countries including Czechia, Hungary and Cyprus and are likely to fail.
In the mean time Russia has removed some of its valuable equipment and people, to be out of the way of a possible Turkish/SA invasion and at the same time showing it is prepared for serious talks in Geneva, but not for rigging the presidential elections in Syria by excluding the sitting president. And if that fails it can be back in days.
 
one month after, I looked at posts since I had left because of conspiracies here:

Feb 18, 2016
Well that didn't take long at all. Turkey blame Ankara bombing on YPG Syrian Kurds.

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I can't imagine anyone is surprised by the Turkish accusation or Kurdish denial.

All those Turkish troops who had been massing for weeks along the boarder now have an excuse, sorry I mean reason, to cross into Syria.

Its all so depressingly predictable.

how condescending ... and today:
...

The Turks and Saudis would have to be delusional and/or stupid to go into Syria now.

am leaving this Thread for good
 
argh, a message popped up, as patronizing as

Feb 18, 2016
...

All those Turkish troops who had been massing for weeks along the boarder now have an excuse, sorry I mean reason, to cross into Syria.

Its all so depressingly predictable.

cheers

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
argh, a message popped up, as patronizing as

Feb 18, 2016


cheers

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We are all entitled to our own opinions and views.

At least I was commenting on the developing situation rather than taking personal potshots at people who's views I disagree with.
 

solarz

Brigadier
one month after, I looked at posts since I had left because of conspiracies here:

Feb 18, 2016

how condescending ... and today:

am leaving this Thread for good

If you have nothing to contribute, then just don't click on reply. Nobody cares whether you're reading this thread or not.

As for the Russian withdrawal, it's pretty funny to see the western media trying to justify their earlier claims that Putin will get "bogged down" in Syria. It's almost as if the concept of limited military intervention was completely foreign to them.
 

delft

Brigadier
If you have nothing to contribute, then just don't click on reply. Nobody cares whether you're reading this thread or not.

As for the Russian withdrawal, it's pretty funny to see the western media trying to justify their earlier claims that Putin will get "bogged down" in Syria. It's almost as if the concept of limited military intervention was completely foreign to them.
You're right. But they know about a dozen years US war in support of various dictatorships in South Vietnam, a longer war in Afghanistan initially in support of a president who was elected in Bonn, Germany, the somewhat shorter Soviet war in Afghanistan and the "short" occupation of Iraq. The notion that politicians and military men are able to learn from experience is foreign to them.;)
 

Brumby

Major
You're right. But they know about a dozen years US war in support of various dictatorships in South Vietnam, a longer war in Afghanistan initially in support of a president who was elected in Bonn, Germany, the somewhat shorter Soviet war in Afghanistan and the "short" occupation of Iraq. The notion that politicians and military men are able to learn from experience is foreign to them.;)

Regardless of ideological leaning, there is no denying that Putin played his cards very well and got bang for bucks. It also demonstrates that Obama and his team was simply outclassed.
 
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