ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
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BY
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| November 9, 2015 | [email protected] |
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The Islamic State’s Sinai “province” used this banner to advertise its first video after pledging allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in November 2014.


The Egyptian interior ministry announced earlier today that a senior figure in the Islamic State’s so-called Sinai “province,” Ashraf Ali Hassanein al Gharabli, was killed during a shootout with police in Cairo.

The Egyptian government
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that al Gharabli was involved in a string of attacks, including a
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in Cairo in July, the
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in August, and the
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named William Henderson in 2014. Al Gharabli was also allegedly responsible for a number of attacks on Egyptian officials, including an assassination attempt on former interior minister Mohammad Ibrahim in 2013.

On at least four occasions, the Islamic State and its Sinai “province”
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of a Russian airliner on October 31. The claim has not been confirmed, but both US and UK officials say it is increasingly likely that the jihadists placed a bomb on board the jet. More than 220 passengers and crew members were killed.

Even without official confirmation of the Sinai “province’s” responsibility, Egyptian officials are undoubtedly anxious to claim a victory against the group. Therefore, from the Egyptian government’s perspective, al Gharabli’s reported death could not come at more opportune time.

One detail in al Gharabli’s biography is especially important for understanding the evolution of the Islamic State’s presence in the Sinai. According to an Egyptian “police official”
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, al Gharabli was once the “right-hand man” of Hisham al Ashmawy,” a feared former [Egyptian] commando who is believed to have spearheaded a string of bombings and assassinations in the capital.”

Ashmawy and al Gharabli were both members of Ansar Bayt al Maqdis (ABM), a jihadist organization that
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in November 2014. ABM was
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as one of the Islamic State’s “provinces.” But while al Gharabli decided to join Baghdadi’s cause, Ashmawy remained loyal to al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri.

Egyptian officials have accused Ashmawy and his former deputy, al Gharabli, of taking part in some of the same plots. For example, Egypt previously alleged that Ashmawy masterminded the attempted killing of interior minister Mohammad Ibrahim. [See LWJ report,
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.]

Some of the other acts al Gharabli is alleged to have committed were also carried out when both he and Ashmawy were in ABM’s ranks. Although the Sinai “province”
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for killing William Henderson in December 2014, he was actually murdered months later. At the time of Henderson’s death, ABM had not yet officially become part of the Islamic State.

ABM was clearly tied to al Qaeda prior to its defection to Baghdadi’s “caliphate.” And Ashmawy’s story demonstrates that not all of ABM became part of the Islamic State’s network. Indeed, as The Long War Journal has
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in the past,
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indicate that part of ABM remained loyal to al Qaeda. In particular, a cadre of jihadists based in the Nile Valley decided to stay in al Qaeda’s camp.

Jund al Islam, which is based in the Sinai, is likely part of al Qaeda’s network. And still another jihadist group in Egypt, Ajnad Misr (“Soldiers of Egypt”),
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as well. The leader of Ajnad Misr, Hammam Attiyah, was killed earlier this year. Both al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
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, indicating that he was likely an al Qaeda operative.

Ashmawy is a key figure in the pro-al Qaeda contingent that was once part of ABM. In July, he
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named Al Murabitoon in a video that featured clips of Ayman al Zawahiri. Ashmawy’s continued loyalty to al Qaeda drew harsh criticism from the Islamic State’s supporters. In August, he was included in the Islamic State’s “
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” campaign. Baghdadi’s followers said that Ashmawy was working to counter the “caliphate’s” influence, and that he had fled to Derna, Libya. Egyptian officials subsequently confirmed that Ashmawy operates out of Derna at least part of the time.

In early October, Ashmawy was publicly identified as the “
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” man on Egypt’s most wanted list. The Egyptian government accuses him of masterminding the assassination of Hisham Barakat, the country’s chief prosecutor, in late June.

The legacy of ABM is such that while the organization dissolved into competing groups, it spawned multiple threats to the Egyptian state. After all, before going on to represent rival jihadist organizations, al Gharabli and Ashmawy were once ABM commanders.

Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for The Long War Journal.
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Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
The current US administration is hell bent on trying to use in-country counter-militants to fight both ISIS and ASSAD.

No matter what you may think of the US admin, of Putin, or of Assad, the current US policy is clearly a losing proposition.

The US, with even heavier air power than Russia is bringing to the table, has been wholly unable to support any real push at taking of land back from ISIS.

Why is this so?

it is clear, as US military leaders tried to explain. They do not have the numbers on the ground in Syria to take advantage of the air power, and every effort to raise such numbers within Syria has failed miserably.

The US has had some success with the Kurds...but this in in their tribal homelands where they are fighting for their life and have the numbers and the will to be augmented by US air power.

But the Kurds have no willingness or intent to be thee spearhead for a US backed offensive against Assad, or against ISIS deep in Syria.

It has been clear from the outset that the US options for defeating ISIS in Syria are:

1) Putting massive US boots on the ground to fight ISIS...which would almost unavoidably lead to them also fighting Assad forces and probably widen the conflict as Iran and Russia sought (as they are doing now) to keep their ally from falling. So this option has been rejected, by both the US admin and by the American people. There is no pressing US interest in spending US lives to do so, or to risk the even heavier toll should such an option widen the conflict..

2) To ally with others to fight ISIS who have any chance of being strong enough to fight them in Syria. The clear answer to that is Assad and his forces who have the numbers, the equipment, and the motivation. But because of the current US administration's own statements and policies, they have also rejected this option as well.

(US military leadrs have pointed this out to this administration...but they have all been roundly rejected.)

And this is why the US air power has been ineffectual.

It is also why the Russian air power is proving effectual.

Russia has, in effect, come in choosing option two themselves, allying with Assad and his forces, being supported by Iran, who have the numbers to put the Russian air power to good use.

The US could have chosen this path two years ago....and did not. They missed a chance to defeat ISIS and improve relations with Assad.

As I have said...doing so could certainly have been accomplished. The elder Bush, Clinton, and the younger Bush...three US presidents over a 20 year period...found ways to make accommodations with Assad . When they did, there was no mayhem in Syiria like there is now.

When ISIS rose, the current administration could have done so too...and had they done so, they would have been successful by now and ended the suffering in Syria.

But they did not...and now Russia is standing in to it themselves.
 
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dtulsa

Junior Member
The current US administration is hell bent on trying to use in-country counter-militants to fight both ISIS and ASSAD.

No matter what you may think of the US admin, of Putin, or of Assad, the current US policy is clearly a losing proposition.

The US, with even heavier air power than Russia is bringing to the table, has been wholly unable to support any real push at taking of land back from ISIS.

Why is this so?

it is clear, as US military leaders tried to explain. They do not have the numbers on the ground in Syria to take advantage of the air power, and every effort to raise such numbers within Syria has failed miserably.

The US has had some success with the Kurds...but this in in their tribal homelands where they are fighting for their life and have the numbers and the will to be augmented by US air power.

But the Kurds have no willingness or intent to be thee spearhead for a US backed offensive against Assad, or against ISIS deep in Syria.

It has been clear from the outset that the US options for defeating ISIS in Syria are:

1) Putting massive US boots on the ground to fight ISIS...which would almost unavoidably lead to them also fighting Assad forces and probably widen the conflict as Iran and Russia sought (as they are doing now) to keep their ally from falling. So this option has been rejected, by both the US admin and by the American people. There is no pressing US interest in spending US lives to do so, or to risk the even heavier toll should such an option widen the conflict..

2) To ally with others to fight ISIS who have any chance of being strong enough to fight them in Syria. The clear answer to that is Assad and his forces who have the numbers, the equipment, and the motivation. But because of the current US administration's own statements and policies, they have also rejected this option as well.

(US military leadrs have pointed this out to this administration...but they have all been roundly rejected.)

And this is why the US air power has been ineffectual.

It is also why the Russian air power is proving effectual.

Russia has, in effect, come in choosing option two themselves, allying with Assad and his forces, being supported by Iran, who have the numbers to put the Russian air power to good use.

The US could have chosen this path two years ago....and did not. They missed a chance to defeat ISIS and improve relations with Assad.

As I have said...doing so could certainly have been accomplished. The elder Bush, Clinton, and the younger Bush...three US presidents over a 20 year period...found ways to make accommodations with Assad . When they did, there was no mayhem in Syiria like there is now.

When ISIS rose, the current administration could have done so too...and had they done so, they would have been successful by now and ended the suffering in Syria.

But they did not...and now Russia is standing in to it themselves.
Agreed this is what happens when this country elects doves for leaders instead of hawks be that dem. or republican
 

Zool

Junior Member
The current US administration is hell bent on trying to use in-country counter-militants to fight both ISIS and ASSAD.

No matter what you may think of the US admin, of Putin, or of Assad, the current US policy is clearly a losing proposition.

The US, with even heavier air power than Russia is bringing to the table, has been wholly unable to support any real push at taking of land back from ISIS.

Why is this so?

it is clear, as US military leaders tried to explain. They do not have the numbers on the ground in Syria to take advantage of the air power, and every effort to raise such numbers within Syria has failed miserably.

The thing is we do have and have always had those numbers on the ground, in the form of the Syrian Army. The question of sending in troops to Syria is a false choice if the objective is to close off that country to this unprecedented coalition of Sunni militants.

Coordination between Syrian forces and CENTCOM would make all the difference in eliminating these militant groups. The Syrian Army is clearly still willing and just as important, still operationally effective, to take up the ground game. All that stands in the way of that is a policy of regime change and counter-productive efforts to topple the Syrian Government.

Then we would be left with the task of securing Iraq, which is another ball game due to the state of it's military after years of defeat from the days of the Iran-Iraq war up to the dismantling of the armed forces after the removal of Saddam. This is the way Syria will go if we allow or worse yet support it's fall.

Senators like McCain & military advisers of similar mind, do a disservice to western security interests by Assad must go and that the country can be rebuilt. Obama is no star in all of this but he has plenty of company in how we've arrived where we are.
 

dtulsa

Junior Member
The thing is we do have and have always had those numbers on the ground, in the form of the Syrian Army. The question of sending in troops to Syria is a false choice if the objective is to close off that country to this unprecedented coalition of Sunni militants.

Coordination between Syrian forces and CENTCOM would make all the difference in eliminating these militant groups. The Syrian Army is clearly still willing and just as important, still operationally effective, to take up the ground game. All that stands in the way of that is a policy of regime change and counter-productive efforts to topple the Syrian Government.

Then we would be left with the task of securing Iraq, which is another ball game due to the state of it's military after years of defeat from the days of the Iran-Iraq war up to the dismantling of the armed forces after the removal of Saddam. This is the way Syria will go if we allow or worse yet support it's fall.

Senators like McCain & military advisers of similar mind, do a disservice to western security interests by Assad must go and that the country can be rebuilt. Obama is no star in all of this but he has plenty of company in how we've arrived where we are.
Agreed there are no clean hands in this deal
 

delft

Brigadier
The BBC still doesn't get it.
From
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The eight-point proposal drawn up by Russia is reported not to rule out President Bashar al-Assad's participation in the elections - something his enemies say is impossible if there is to be peace.
If Assad is candidate the Syrians will reelect him and then the sponsors of the terrorists will not stop their sponsorship. So the election would have to be rigged.
Russia and Iran won't accept that.
 

ShahryarHedayat

Junior Member
Syrian Army, Hezbollah Lift ISIL's 2.5-Year-Long Siege of
Kuweires Airbase in Aleppo

13930602000722_PhotoI.jpg



TEHRAN (FNA)- The Syrian army, popular forces and Hezbollah forces, backed up by Syrian and Russian air forces, lifted the two and a half-year-long siege of Kuweires military airbase after killing hundreds of ISIL terrorists on Tuesday, reports said the groundbreaking victory was gained under the leadership of Iran's renowned Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani.:cool:
The Syrian troops and Hezbollah forces rolled into the Kuweires airport at the end of their daylong last phase of massive operations.

Heavy clashes were underway around the Kuweires airport since early this morning and the Syrian army was defusing ISIL's minefield before they could reach their friends in the base.

There are unconfirmed reports from the battlefield about witnessing Iran's Major General Qassem Soleimani leading the battle.

Sources from both sides of the war said General Soleimani was the top field commander and has been leading the CentCom of the Syrian army-NDF-Hezbollah at least for the last two days.


upload_2015-11-11_16-57-46.jpeg

(Syrian forces praising God after victory in Kuweires)

The Syrian army, the National Defense Forces (NDF) and Hezbollah combatants, backed up by Russian warplanes, launched the last round of their over one-month-long joint operations against the ISIL terrorists' positions in Eastern Aleppo near the Kuweires airbase this morning, and won full control over the strategic Aleppo-Raqqa Highway.

The attack started from multiple directions and ended up in cleaning up several villages from ISIL. Hundreds of the ISIL militants were killed or wounded in this morning operations.

In the next stage, Syrian and Russian Air Forces massively targeted the last strongholds of the ISIL militants around the Kuweires airbase.

In addition to the Syrian and Russian airstrikes, the artillery and mortar units of the army also shelled the ISIL strongholds to weaken their defense lines as much as possible to lay the ground for the combatants of Hezbollah, the army soldiers and the National Defense Forces to launch the final phase of their joint operations to lift the nearly 2.5-year-long siege on Kuweires airbase.

Intelligence sources said hundreds of ISIL militants were fleeing the Kuweires region to safer areas to save their lives after suffering heavy casualties in the joint massive attack of the Syrian Army and Hezbollah with the Russian air backup.

After cleaning the region, the pro-government troops had to defuse a minefield planted by the ISIL before they could reach the gates of airbase.

The ISIL Takfiri terrorists had besieged the Kuweires airbase for over 2.5 years, but the base itself was under the Syrian army's control.

Hundreds of Syrian forces were under a tight siege at the airbase as a result of the occupation of vast areas surrounding the airport by the terrorists.

When under the siege, the Syrian army helicopters supplied foodstuff and other needs to the Syrian troops defending the airport.

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Job well done Major Soleimani!
 
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ShahryarHedayat

Junior Member
The high number of high ranking IRGC officers killed in Syrian is less down to how deeply the IRGC is embedded with the Assad forces and more down to the kind of people they are sending in.

Contrary to the impression often given in the western media, there is actually no concrete evidence that I have seen which suggests large scale IRGC combat troops operating in Syria.

The people Iran sends in are usually "advisors", who they feel need to be of a certain rank or above. These "advisors" typically operate as tacticians and even field commanders for Assad's forces, so are often on the front lines observing and/or directing units.

The western media loves to focus on dead high ranking Iranian commanders because it gives the impression of both deep and large scale Iranian involvement, and heavy Assad/Iranian losses, as your average Joe is going to assume that high ranking commanders must be dying in proportion to the troops they are leading.

To be honest, I think the IRGC should probably be expanding their numbers and involvement in Syria at least a little, and at a minimum provide every high ranking officer with his own dedicated close protection detail of IRGC troopers, as they have been loosing a lot of high ranking, and you would presume, very capable field commanders in Syria.

If I was in charge, I would make sure that all senior IRGC commanders in Syria not only had a decent close protection detail of totally loyal IRGC troops, but also a few promising junior officers to effectively apprentice with these field commanders.

That way, not only do you keep your valuable field commanders safer, you are also training up the next generation of field commanders in the crucible of war to make them even better commanders when their time comes to lead.

Great post Bro!
 
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