Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
In spite of Chicanery Huawei and other Chinese smartphone manufacturer are increasing their penetration of European smartphone market Via GS Zhou
According to market analysis firm Canalys, Chinese smartphone brands are now owning a 32% market share in the Europe market in 2018.

Both Huawei and Xiaomi are expanding their M/S in Europe. As a consequence, Apple and Samsung are losing share in Europe.
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Nutrient

Junior Member
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And that makes them lose face? Nvidia is a US company, and so are IBM and Mellanox. Would you respect them more if they contracted Intel to manufacture the chips instead?

The fact is that the microchips giving the Summit supercomputer most of its power were made in Taiwan and not in the U.S. Very soon, mainland China will be capable of making these chips too: the Nvidia Tesla V100 uses TSMC's 12 nm FinFET process; SMIC has just announced yield rates of 95% at 14 nm.


Who's losing at what??

China is reckoned to be at least a year ahead of the U.S. in the exaflop supercomputer race. When SMIC and other mainland semiconductor foundries really get going, China will probably widen the gap. The fact is that China has been producing over 4 million STEM graduates a year (most of them probably engineers); the US, only 0.6 million/year. That preponderance of engineering talent will tell.


Wrong. The computation doesn't obviously go faster if your microarchitecture does not have native fp8 and fp16 support.

You were the one who started bragging about a specific computation by Oak Ridge that won the Gordon Bell prize.
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, that computation does indeed take advantage of the 16-bit features of the Nvidia chip, when the normal precision in supercomputing is 64 bits. Obviously, reducing the hardware's workload to a quarter potentially allows the application to run much faster, and the ORNL app specifically takes advantage of this. Claiming that Summit is now a 2.3 exaflop machine is deceptive, when it is nowhere near an exaflop at normal precision.

When China unveils the world's first true exaflop machine, and the U.S. has nothing at that level, I predict that the "Summit is already an exaflop machine" propaganda will get pretty loud.


The Gordon Bell prize is the most prestigious award in the HPC application world. Show some respect.

Likely the Gordon Bell prize was awarded for the weather recognition ability of the ORNL app, using AI, and not necessarily for the fact that it used 2.3 exa cheap flops.[/B][/B]
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
The fact is that the microchips giving the Summit supercomputer most of its power were made in Taiwan and not in the U.S. Very soon, mainland China will be capable of making these chips too: the Nvidia Tesla V100 uses TSMC's 12 nm FinFET process; SMIC has just announced yield rates of 95% at 14 nm.




China is reckoned to be at least a year ahead of the U.S. in the exaflop supercomputer race. When SMIC and other mainland semiconductor foundries really get going, China will probably widen the gap. The fact is that China has been producing over 4 million STEM graduates a year (most of them probably engineers); the US, only 0.6 million/year. That preponderance of engineering talent will tell.




You were the one who started bragging about a specific computation by Oak Ridge that won the Gordon Bell prize.
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, that computation does indeed take advantage of the 16-bit features of the Nvidia chip, when the normal precision in supercomputing is 64 bits. Obviously, reducing the hardware's workload to a quarter potentially allows the application to run much faster, and the ORNL app specifically takes advantage of this. Claiming that Summit is now a 2.3 exaflop machine is deceptive, when it is nowhere near an exaflop at normal precision.

When China unveils the world's first true exaflop machine, and the U.S. has nothing at that level, I predict that the "Summit is already an exaflop machine" propaganda will get pretty loud.




Likely the Gordon Bell prize was awarded for the weather recognition ability of the ORNL app, using AI, and not necessarily for the fact that it used 2.3 exa cheap flops.[/B][/B]

people seem always get into my p** is bigger than yours contest. China made alot progress, true, but its is crucial not to be over confident. US is still leading in many of the tech overall, and its gonna take decades to catch up to that.

as far as number of STEM graduate etc quality over quantity, US grad school are still one of the best, also most foreign student graduate in US including many from china/india want to stay in US and end up working at various US companies. Looking at AMD/Nvidia/Intel, most engineer are from foreign country. Most STEM professor are foreign born. One of the biggest US advantage is able to absorb many talents from all over the world.

So lets just stop this, and knowing china made alot progress, but still has a long road ahead.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
people seem always get into my p** is bigger than yours contest. China made alot progress, true, but its is crucial not to be over confident. US is still leading in many of the tech overall, and its gonna take decades to catch up to that.

as far as number of STEM graduate etc quality over quantity, US grad school are still one of the best, also most foreign student graduate in US including many from china/india want to stay in US and end up working at various US companies. Looking at AMD/Nvidia/Intel, most engineer are from foreign country. Most STEM professor are foreign born. One of the biggest US advantage is able to absorb many talents from all over the world.

So lets just stop this, and knowing china made alot progress, but still has a long road ahead.

Yes and why is the US worried then? It's the US making it an issue of contention. So much that it wants to force China into committing not to develop technology that the West is free to do? The US charges that Made in China 2025 is declaring determined dominance over advanced technology. Since when has something that hasn't been committed a crime? Punishing people for crimes they think will happen in the future is a human rights violation especially since said act isn't a crime. Since when has becoming dominant a crime. If it's not a crime for any Western country to do what is charged against China, it's not a crime for China.
 
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localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Yes and why is the US worried then? It's the US making it an issue of contention. So much that it wants to force China into committing not to develop technology that the West is free to do? The US charges that Made in China 2025 is declaring determined dominance over advanced technology. Since when has something that hasn't been committed a crime? Punishing people for crimes they think will happen in the future is a human rights violation especially since said act isn't a crime. Since when has becoming dominant a crime. If it's not a crime for any Western country to do what is charged against China, it's not a crime for China.

US has to do everything it can to prevent China's GDP from rising above its own to avoid an unwinnable arms race. (A politically, morally, and ethically untenable position)
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
Article speculating that China's ban of Australian coal is a retaliation for Australia's Huawei ban.

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Beijing: The Australian dollar fell 1 per cent on Thursday as news broke that a major Chinese port had banned imports of Australian coal, fuelling fears that diplomatic tensions were hitting Australia's second largest export.

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Trade Minister Simon Birmingham told Senate Estimates on Thursday night there was no evidence to support claims the slow down in coal imports was linked to diplomatic tensions.

But he said Australian ambassador to China Jan Adams had escalated her representations to the Chinese government.

Dalian Port and Dalian Customs declined to comment to The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald after Reuters reported that the port had banned Australian thermal coal imports.

China has reportedly banned imports of Australian coal through Dalian port.

But reports in China said Dalian Customs had held a meeting and imposed a combined cap of 12 million tonnes for 2019 on all five harbours in Dalian. The reports on a Chinese steel industry website said only Russian and Indonesian thermal coal would now be imported.

Reuters on Thursday cited a Dalian Port Group official as confirming five harbours overseen by Dalian customs - Dalian, Bayuquan, Panjin, Dandong and Beiliang - would not allow Australian coal to be cleared.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said: “Chinese customs authorities conducted risk monitoring and analysis of imported coal to safeguard the rights and interests of Chinese importers and protect the environment”.

Responding to the Chinese foreign ministry comment that customs was undertaking safety inspections on coal, Mr Birmingham said these "ought to be undertaken in as timely manner as possible".

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The DFAT first assistant secretary for North Asia, Graham Fletcher, said there had been "a period of similarity" last year when there was a "go-slow measure at customs docks" to limit coal imports from other countries, but Australian coal exports to China rose nine per cent.

He said it was "a very serious issue" that was impacting the Australian currency.

Trade minister Simon Birmingham said: "China is a valued partner of Australia and we trust that our free trade agreement commitments to each other will continue to be honoured," he said.

China is the second-biggest destination for Australian thermal coal, and Australia is the second-largest thermal coal exporter worldwide after Indonesia.


An Australian mining analyst said the decision had been brewing for some time. "Before it was just metallurgical or coking coal but now it's been extended to thermal coal," he said.

"It is understood there have already been high-level conversations between the Australian and Chinese governments. These conversations are delicately poised right now."

This seems to be an escalation of what is already happening between China and Australia. They've singled out only Australian coal.

MineLife analyst Gavin Wendt
Another analyst said that BHP "may be exposed to this, with some of their coal going through that port."

Diplomatic relations between China and Australia have been relatively smooth in recent months, after a meeting of foreign ministers late last year healed a rift that had prevented any official visits for months.

But Chinese media has in recent weeks hit out at the Five Eyes intelligence allies over Washington and Canberra's decision to ban Chinese telecommunications company Huawei from 5G networks.

MineLife analyst Gavin Wendt said: "This seems to be an escalation of what is already happening between China and Australia.

"They've singled out only Australian coal. One has to interpret it has having to do with the icy political relationship between Australia and China."

Trade Minister Simon Birmingham is seeking "urgent" advice on the reported ban.

A media digest published by the Xinhua state news agency on Thursday repeated a Reuters story about rumours of delays for Australian coal imports under the headline: "Can't even sell coal to China."

Chinese industry website Coal Industry Net reported that import restrictions on Australian coking coal had been extended in some parts of China in late January, but no official statement has been issued.

"Informed sources have said that on the afternoon of January 29, several ports in northeastern China, including the Bayuquan, Dandong Port and Dalian Port, imposed restrictions on coking coal imports.

Authorities conducted risk monitoring ... of imported coal to safeguard the rights ... of Chinese importers and protect the environment.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang
"Three Chinese steel mills have confirmed that they have received verbal notices from Customs at Northeast Ports regarding the import restrictions on coking coal," the Chinese website said.

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A Chinese trader said it would "definitely affect the buying sentiment of high-ash thermal coal from Newcastle Port".

The Department of Science and Industry had forecast in December that China would have declining demand for thermal coal in 2019, but that Australian export earnings would continue to soar on rising prices, from $23 billion to $26 billion.

One Australian coal miner said while they are being kept in the dark by the port, this situation frequently occurs.

"Dalian isn't talking to Australian producers about this. They don't explain it, which is very Chinese," he said."They usually put these in place to allow domestic operators time to shine and build them up by pressuring Australian producers."

"These Australian producers then take a $US5 to $US10 a tonne hit for the next few months until they lift them again."

When asked if it may be in retaliation for Huawei, he said he was not hearing that it was politically driven and was a fairly normal course of action at Dalian.

But independent South Australian senator Rex Patrick said: "It's not unusual for China to act in that manner on a state-to-state front whenever they're unhappy."

The executive director of Australian Strategic Policy Institute Peter Jennings said: "This is a deliberate shot across the bows. It's a pattern we've seen China apply to a number of countries over the years."

"It's designed to keep Australia on edge about our decision concerning Chinese investment or its inclusion in our 5G network."

BHP chief executive Andrew Mackenzie on Tuesday acknowledged that delays for coal importers unloading in China had more than doubled from 20 to 45 days, but he said "all suppliers are facing that".

He said the cause was China moderating imports versus domestic coal production."

I don’t believe for one moment this is linked to some of the higher level issues of relationships between China and the rest of the world, and including with us."

There had been reports earlier this month of queues of ships off numerous Chinese ports facing delays to unload coal as China sought to boost domestic coal prices. It had also been reported that only Australian coal faced customs delays.
 

weig2000

Captain
Things are developing very quickly in this US vs Huawei saga. In the last couple of days, it has been the open split among the Five Eyes. Now it appears that the US, the mastermind behind all these, is also thinking of dramatic turnaround. Trump is quite unpredictable, but he is also able to do the unthinkable. It's time to stop, or at least call a timeout, to this stupid trade war and tech war between the US and China.

Here is my proposal to the US: why not let Huawei participate in the US telecom and smartphone market. It will have all the upsides, and none of the downsides for the US. 1) With Huawei allowed to compete for 5G network, the US will speed up its rollout of 5G network at a lower cost (there has been estimate that the US will save $20 billion). The US will be in a better position to compete with China and other countries in 5G. 5G is not just the telecom infrastructure, it's an entire ecosystem. The US does not have an equipment player, but it's very strong in other areas of the ecosystem, including semiconductor, software, applications and services. Plus Huawei's sales will also drive US suppliers revenues. 2) For years the US has been suspicious about Huawei, and have even hacked into Huawei's internal network for spying. The world-wide campaign to ban Huawei is very costly to the US credibility and soft power. With Huawei participating the US market, the US government can demand that Huawei open up their source code, a la current UK practice, and put Huawei under close monitoring and supervision. Huawei will not be the only vendor to supply 5G equipment. With a more diversified vendor base, the security risk is minimized.

The US should drop the extradition request for Ms. Meng Wanzhou, or at least signal to Canada to reject the request if it's difficult to get around DOJ. That way, US, China, and Canada will avoid this lose-lose-lose situation.

As for Micron and Fujian Jinhua disputes, that's also stupid and lose-lose. Micron has got 50% of its revenue from China market; Fujian Jinhua doesn't even have its memory chip technology. They had been outsourcing the technology development to the Taiwanese company UMC.

US and China look to end chipmaker spat as part of trade deal
Negotiators seek resolution of Micron-Fujian Jinhua fight as confidence-building measure
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and
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in Beijing and
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in Washington 2 hours ago

US and Chinese negotiators are trying to resolve a long-running dispute between semiconductor rivals Micron Technology and Fujian Jinhua as part of a larger trade agreement between the world’s two largest economies, according to people briefed on the negotiations.

The people added that a resolution of the various charges and counter-charges involving Micron and Fujian Jinhua was one of a series of “confidence-building” measures the two sides want to include in a memorandum of understanding, which could pave the way for a final agreement to the continuing US-China trade war.

Vice Premier Liu He, China’s lead negotiator, and US trade representative Robert Lighthizer are due to wrap up their third round of face-to-face trade talks in almost as many weeks on Friday in Washington, after which Mr Liu will meet US President Donald Trump.

The people briefed on the talks said concrete agreements on long-running commercial disputes could help Mr Trump sell a larger trade deal that may be light on difficult structural reforms of the Chinese economy and a stringent enforcement mechanism, both of which have been stubbornly resisted by Mr Liu’s team.

Other confidence-building measures under discussion include an easing of Chinese restrictions on imports of US polysilicon, a component of solar energy panels, which Beijing implemented in retaliation for US tariffs on imported solar cells.

They also involve final approval by China’s central bank for
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to be able to provide payment services in the country after an almost
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.

In a tweet on Thursday, Mr Trump also indicated that he might be willing to reduce the pressure his administration has been putting on Huawei, the Chinese telecoms group, which could similarly help pave the way for a trade deal.

People briefed on the talks have said Chinese officials have asked for Washington and Beijing’s dispute over the company to be resolved in a “parallel track” to the trade negotiations.

President Xi Jinping is seeking the release of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s chief financial officer and the daughter of company founder Ren Zhengfei, who is in Canada pending her possible extradition to the US on charges of alleged bank fraud related to sanctions against Iran.

In response, the Chinese government has detained two Canadian nationals on national security charges.

The long-running feud between Micron, based in Idaho, and Fujian Jinhua, based in Fujian province, is regularly cited by US officials as an example of the Chinese government’s alleged failure to protect foreign investors’ technologies and other intellectual property.

At an Oval Office meeting late last month between Mr Trump and Mr Liu, Mr Lighthizer said the two negotiating teams were focused on “the most important issues” including “forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection . . . and enforcement, enforcement, enforcement”.

As their dispute escalated over the past year, Micron and Fujian Jinhua have received strong support from their respective governments.

The US Commerce Department banned US exports and technology transfers to Fujian Jinhua, in a measure that could force the company to stop production by next month.

In a separate case, the US Justice Department filed criminal charges against Fujian Jinhua for allegedly conspiring with Taiwan’s UMC to steal Micron’s technology.

Fujian Jinhua, UMC and the Chinese government have strenuously denied the charges.

For its part, Micron is the subject — alongside South Korean rivals Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — of a Chinese government anti-monopoly investigation into alleged price-fixing. A Chinese court also moved last year to halt the sale of dozens of Micron products that Fujian Jinhua and UMC alleged had infringed on their patents.

Micron has denied the charges and appealed against the court decision, which it said was sought by Fujian Jinhua and UMC in retaliation for the three companies’ disputes.
 

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I want 5G, and even 6G, technology in the United States as soon as possible. It is far more powerful, faster, and smarter than the current standard. American companies must step up their efforts, or get left behind. There is no reason that we should be lagging behind on.........


....something that is so obviously the future. I want the United States to win through competition, not by blocking out currently more advanced technologies. We must always be the leader in everything we do, especially when it comes to the very exciting world of technology!
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Biscuits

Major
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people seem always get into my p** is bigger than yours contest. China made alot progress, true, but its is crucial not to be over confident. US is still leading in many of the tech overall, and its gonna take decades to catch up to that.

as far as number of STEM graduate etc quality over quantity, US grad school are still one of the best, also most foreign student graduate in US including many from china/india want to stay in US and end up working at various US companies. Looking at AMD/Nvidia/Intel, most engineer are from foreign country. Most STEM professor are foreign born. One of the biggest US advantage is able to absorb many talents from all over the world.

So lets just stop this, and knowing china made alot progress, but still has a long road ahead.

It is also important to keep awareness high.

Both countries have different advantages in different areas.

While US spending is higher, it is very front loaded in biotech. The reason for this is the lack of regulations, which enable medicines to be sold for astronomical prices, making it very attractive from a business perspective. Despite slightly lower spending, China outputs most papers in 23 of 30 largest areas, with US leading in the rest.

Where the US STEM or Chinese STEM are born is irrelevant. US requiring Indian assistance to catch up is not an achievement.

The actual number of Chinese who would consider moving to another country is low. There’s just enough of them that even if 0.1% would like to expatriate, that will still be enough to cause a visible presence. It’s like saying “all Europeans want to move to Thailand” just because you can see a lot of Europeans in Thailand.

Try to be more realistic, do you have any idea how much a decade is? In two decades, China transformed from a country with similar infrastructure to America into a world leading one that trials future technology on large scale.

If China stood still in a decade, India could likely catch up! That’s how fast technology is moving nowadays.

Yes, China is behind on areas like biotech, and US also lacks some forms of technology. But it is nothing both of their very powerful domestic R&D cannot solve with ease.

The truth is that the “gap” in most technologies such as automatization, extraction technology for US or cost effective chip mass production for China is simply due to lack of interest. Why spend time to enter a niche when others can already get the job done?

But if relations with others deteriorate, there will be incentive to pick up those areas again. And this is the sort of stuff that gets solved within a year.
 
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