Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

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AndrewS

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2 issues with the article.

It states that:

"If China does achieve standalone 5G networks well ahead of the US and elsewhere, Chinese tech firms would have an advantage in developing applications, though the country’s heavy regulation could slow down their lead."
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But what we see in China is that the government actually lets companies run WITHOUT any regulation at the beginning.
Only after the industry is established, do they start regulation.

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If the US is committed to challenging China’s 5G efforts, it could now go on to ban US suppliers from working with Huawei.

That option would be “nuclear” according to a senior figure within the telecoms sector and could stop development in its tracks.

"Mr Lee said: “If Huawei cannot license Android from Google, or Qualcomm’s patents in 4G and 5G radio access technology, it will not be able to build smartphones or 4G/5G stations.”"
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That would mean the end of the FRAND licensing system for the telecomms world. And suppose Huawei were to refuse to license their critical 5G patents to Qualcomm?
 
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AndrewS

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Further analysis

"As it set up its 4G network, it had an eye on expanding it for 5G, which requires many more base stations. China had almost 2m cell sites in early 2018 which is ten times that of the US, according to Deloitte, the consultancy. There are 5.3 sites for every 10 sq miles in China, compared to 0.4 in the US."
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Given that China and the USA have roughly the same geographical land area, why is there such a difference in the number of cell sites?

China has 4x the population, so there should be, at most, 4x the cell sites.
But the difference is 10x the number of cell sites.

That appears to indicate that the big US mobile networks currently have much worse 2G/3G/4G coverage in terms of speed and geographical availability.

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The chart also shows that China is set to deploy standalone 5G networks in 2020, whereas everyone else is 5 YEARS BEHIND.

So would that confer China companies a 5 year technology advantage in the future industries below?

these features are expected to underpin self-driving cars, AI and machine-to-machine communications that will transform the way everything from homes to hospitals to factories operate.
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taxiya

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First of all, the landscape is:
  1. Qualcomm has just some 15% share of patents in 5G. The rest belongs to Europe, China, SK and Japan.
  2. Some US companies are among the best in making components (ZTE ban exhibited).
  3. US has no system vendor after Lucent (former ATT) was purchased by Alcatel.
  4. Alcatel-Lucent is gradually dying in 4G, and probably dead in 5G.
The first two are the only leverages that US has, and not big leverage. From pure technological perspective, US has not been a major player since long time ago (less than 20% IP in 5G, no major equipment vendors, smaller market than China).

So I think the treacherous plan of Trump in 5G is like this: by blocking Chinese vendors out of US market and the other "five-eyes" market US try to force China to give Huawei and ZTE more preferred position in Chinese market as a compensation. If China does it, Ericsson and Nokia will be the casualties, this will anger the EU even though EU knows well who is the root cause. This is Trump's plan to put a wedge in between EU and China. It is the same act in "Iranian sanction" where US forcing EU to quit the deal or disabling EU's ability to fulfil their obligation to Iran will make Iran angry of EU, another wedge.

Once again, the basic thinking of Trump is a new iron curtain that break the world in two camps so US can remain the King of one camp. The question is who is willing to live in that camp behind the wall.
 
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localizer

localizer

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Europe will be an economic superpower as a whole. Russia will not be much of a power in
taxiya said:
First of all, the landscape is:
  1. Qualcomm has just some 15% share of patents in 5G. The rest belongs to Europe, China, SK and Japan.
  2. Some US companies are among the best in making components (ZTE ban exhibited).
  3. US has no system vendor after Lucent (former ATT) was purchased by Alcatel.
  4. Alcatel-Lucent is gradually dying in 4G, and probably dead in 5G.
The first two are the only leverages that US has, and not big leverage. From pure technological perspective, US has not been a major player since long time ago (less than 20% IP in 5G, no major equipment vendors, smaller market than China).

So I think the treacherous plan of Trump in 5G is like this: by blocking Chinese vendors out of US market and the other "five-eyes" market US try to force China to give Huawei and ZTE more preferred position in Chinese market as a compensation. If China does it, Ericsson and Nokia will be the casualties, this will anger the EU even though EU knows well who is the root cause. This is Trump's plan to put a wedge in between EU and China. It is the same act in "Iranian sanction" where US forcing EU to quit the deal or disabling EU's ability to fulfil their obligation to Iran will make Iran angry of EU, another wedge.

Once again, the basic thinking of Trump is a new iron curtain that break the world in two camps so US can remain the King of one camp. The question is who is willing to live in that camp behind the wall.
Click to expand...


Stop saying Trump lol. Trump only knows about trade balance and his wall.

This is coordinate effort between every arm of the US government and media.
 
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taxiya

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localizer said:
Europe will be an economic superpower as a whole. Russia will not be much of a power in



Stop saying Trump lol. Trump only knows about trade balance and his wall.

This is coordinate effort between every arm of the US government and media.
Click to expand...
:DI don't care who exactly is behind, US is the only entity meaningful in the debate and Trump serves as a good placeholder. And for the sake of writing, five letters is easier than 30 more letters.

P.S. I have no idea why you put in Russia in the reply. As whether Europe being superpower as a whole or not, that is a long story, let's wait if EU can survive first.
 
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AndrewS

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How the 'Five Eyes' cooked up the campaign to kill Huawei

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It was a warm evening this past July when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shared a drink with the world’s most powerful intelligence network.
Spy chiefs from the Five Eyes nations had come to a secure resort in coastal Nova Scotia for an informal evening after intense talks in nearby Ottawa.
Trudeau, who’d spent part of the day pledging to fix a “death trap” highway in the Atlantic province, dropped in on the gathering to share some thoughts about geopolitical threats.

When he left, as the lobster dinner was being served, the conversation returned to a debate that began well before this annual meeting and would run long after it: should the agencies go public with their concerns about China?

In the months that followed that July 17 dinner, an unprecedented campaign has been waged by those present – Australia, the US, Canada, New Zealand and the UK – to block Chinese tech giant Huawei from supplying equipment for their next-generation wireless networks.

This increasingly muscular posture towards Beijing culminated in last week’s arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, in Vancouver, over alleged breaches of US sanctions with Iran. Meng, the daughter of the Huawei’s founder Ren Zhengfei, was granted bail on Wednesday ahead of efforts to extradite her to the US.

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AndrewS

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China forecast to have more 5G users than the rest of the world combined in 2023

Majority of one billion 5G users in 2023 will be China-based, says CCS Insight
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Presumably the Chinese market alone would account for more 5G equipment installations and 5G handsets, than everyone else combined.

Logically, that would lead to Chinese companies developing 5G dependent internet/tech companies first.
 
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hkbc

Junior Member
taxiya said:
First of all, the landscape is:
  1. Qualcomm has just some 15% share of patents in 5G. The rest belongs to Europe, China, SK and Japan.
  2. Some US companies are among the best in making components (ZTE ban exhibited).
  3. US has no system vendor after Lucent (former ATT) was purchased by Alcatel.
  4. Alcatel-Lucent is gradually dying in 4G, and probably dead in 5G.
The first two are the only leverages that US has, and not big leverage. From pure technological perspective, US has not been a major player since long time ago (less than 20% IP in 5G, no major equipment vendors, smaller market than China).
Click to expand...

Alcatel-Lucent got swallowed up by Nokia a couple of years back, basically for carriers the choice is more or less Nokia, Ericsson or Huawei
 
localizer

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
localizer said:
Europe will be an economic superpower as a whole. Russia will not be much of a power in



Stop saying Trump lol. Trump only knows about trade balance and his wall.

This is coordinate effort between every arm of the US government and media.
Click to expand...
taxiya said:
:DI don't care who exactly is behind, US is the only entity meaningful in the debate and Trump serves as a good placeholder. And for the sake of writing, five letters is easier than 30 more letters.

P.S. I have no idea why you put in Russia in the reply. As whether Europe being superpower as a whole or not, that is a long story, let's wait if EU can survive first.
Click to expand...
Ah it saved my previous draft for some reason.
 
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Tam

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China's response needs to be simple: Ban all foreign equipment, Ericsson, Nokia included, from China's 5G network.
 
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