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Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Note the J-20 programme only took around 7 years from first flight to the initial production aircraft that we see today.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the J-20 programme has spent less than $6billion in total during the entire R&D phase so far.

That puts into perspective the further $6billion and 8years that Indian would need for the FGFA.


I would add its not so much how long it took?, its not even all about the money, but what is the end result. In fact taking your time, and getting it right the first time is most important, true fifth gen platforms take a lot of time and money, in addition to the "bleeding edge" technology?

The Indians were willing to purchase the PAK-FA -2 in the interim, with the structural fixes in place and these other issues addressed?? but they have been rebuffed in their request for greater involvement in the development process, and to have their pilots fly PAK-FA?
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think what you're trying to say is that it's the project management triangle of cost, time and quality.

But time matters as the FGFA does not operate in isolation - but must be compared to the competitors that it faces. Plus the last 20% of bleeding-edge technology/performance is what causes the cost and time blowouts.

Given what we know now, the Indians were probably better off not joining the PAK-FA project in the first place.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
I think what you're trying to say is that it's the project management triangle of cost, time and quality.

But time matters as the FGFA does not operate in isolation - but must be compared to the competitors that it faces. Plus the last 20% of bleeding-edge technology/performance is what causes the cost and time blowouts.

Given what we know now, the Indians were probably better off not joining the PAK-FA project in the first place.

Right, the F-22 has staying power, because it was "bleeding edge" heck, its the "alien bird" some of it is still classified, but the F-22 was first envisioned in the mid 80s, first flight of the prototypes around 1990, IIRC? and while the computer architecture is archaic, it is also like an old bank vault, very substantial security.

by the way, Deino reports that 6-2, the first of the -2 birds flew today for the first time, very exciting days, and who knows, maybe Russia has finally "got it together" on this bird?
It had been designed to "learn" just as has the F-35, I will be very surprised if the Indians don't try to buy the F-35, its not the sexy bird the T-50 is, but like a Ferrari, the T-50 is a little on the tempermental side.
The F-35 will be very stealthy, and very wired into the system, with lots of inter-operability to help your brothers.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well, the F-22 was envisioned for use against the Soviet Union, but when the Soviets disappeared, the programme got put in a holding pattern. I think the airframe and engines are great, but the problem is the integrated hardware/software architecture which means it is a nightmare in terms of cost/time/effort to change or upgrade or even fix bugs/vulnerabilities.

As for the PAK-FA, I doubt they've gotten it together, given the complaints coming from India and how the overall programme is suffering from a severe funding crisis. How did the Indians get to his point where they paid half the development costs, yet don't actually know what they've paid for?

Plus I would be very surprised if India bought the F-35, as it means it would be reliant on the USA. It's not that long ago when the US placed economic and military sanctions on India - so they wouldn't want to risk their new front-line fighter jet being grounded.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Well, the F-22 was envisioned for use against the Soviet Union, but when the Soviets disappeared, the programme got put in a holding pattern. I think the airframe and engines are great, but the problem is the integrated hardware/software architecture which means it is a nightmare in terms of cost/time/effort to change or upgrade or even fix bugs/vulnerabilities.

As for the PAK-FA, I doubt they've gotten it together, given the complaints coming from India and how the overall programme is suffering from a severe funding crisis. How did the Indians get to his point where they paid half the development costs, yet don't actually know what they've paid for?

Plus I would be very surprised if India bought the F-35, as it means it would be reliant on the USA. It's not that long ago when the US placed economic and military sanctions on India - so they wouldn't want to risk their new front-line fighter jet being grounded.

Well the Indians haven't bought anything yet? the Rafael deal has apparently fallen through, and PAK-FA was supposed to be a "Joint Venture", to ensure that both the Indians and the Russians had a 5th generation fighter.

The Soviets didn't "disappear" they ran out of gas, and in case you may not have noticed, the Russians are "morphing" into a "reborn" Soviet Union, picking and choosing parts of Georgia and Ukraine? in spite of what knowledgeable posters protest, this has been ongoing for the last decade.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Indians have picked up $6billion of the $12billion development cost of the PAK-FA so far.

But remember that the PAK-FA was the result of both Russia and India being unable to afford the development and production costs of a 5th generation fighter by themselves, as they would have preferred to have done. That was compounded by a technology deficit on the Indian side.

Plus I stand by my comment on the Soviet Union disappearing. If you're going to start arguing the semantics, then I would suggest you start with the numerous articles from Time magazine on the disappearance of the Soviet Union.

Today's Russia is a declining power with stagnant/declining population growth along with negative economic growth. From a population, economic and military point of view - they are greatly overshadowed by the USA and also by China and also by the combined EU. (Yes, the combined EU military is way bigger)

So they are essentially a status quo power who resent the expansion of NATO and the EU into Ukraine and Georgia - as they regard as these places as their traditional sphere of influence.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
The Indians have picked up $6billion of the $12billion development cost of the PAK-FA so far.

But remember that the PAK-FA was the result of both Russia and India being unable to afford the development and production costs of a 5th generation fighter by themselves, as they would have preferred to have done. That was compounded by a technology deficit on the Indian side.

Plus I stand by my comment on the Soviet Union disappearing. If you're going to start arguing the semantics, then I would suggest you start with the numerous articles from Time magazine on the disappearance of the Soviet Union.

Today's Russia is a declining power with stagnant/declining population growth along with negative economic growth. From a population, economic and military point of view - they are greatly overshadowed by the USA and also by China and also by the combined EU. (Yes, the combined EU military is way bigger)

So they are essentially a status quo power who resent the expansion of NATO and the EU into Ukraine and Georgia - as they regard as these places as their traditional sphere of influence.

You really don't understand world powers do you. Its not the well fed wolf that eats you Bub, its the half starved, ravenous beast, that without regard to reason savagely attacks and rips and tears until he tears you apart, or you deal him a "killing blow".

Mr. Putin has taken advantage of BHO's and Europes weakness, and lack of resolve to savage both the former Soviet Georgia and Urkaine, and take the best of both, while people who should have been on it, had a spaz attack over "appearances" and their legacy.

The Russian Bear is not dead, he was in hibernation through a long kold winter, the taking of territory in Georgia and Ukraine has also "recapitalized" the national psyche!

In any regard the Russians are not to be underestimated by intelligent folks, and reason and rationale may not lead you to understand their next course of action, they are gamblers, as well as ambitious, much of the present anger stems from the West's contemptuous attitude during their difficult years, so read time magazine all you want, but first attempt to understand who your potential adversary is, and then measure that against history and desire!

The Indians need the Russians, and the Russians need the Indians, I doubt there is much love lost between them, but it is mutually advantageous for each party to maintain that relationship. I believe the Indians would love to buy PAK-FA if it measured up to expectations, but 250 million a copy is a lot of "jack".
 

Brumby

Major
The Indians have picked up $6billion of the $12billion development cost of the PAK-FA so far.
Your statement that the Indians have picked up $6 billion of the development cost is factually and legally false. As per the article there are two tranches to the inter-governmental agreement:
(a) There is the preliminary design contract (PDC) commitment of $295 million of which the bulk of the money had been spent.
(b) There is a R & D contract that if signed by India will commit to a share of $6 billion spending. This contract had not ben signed.

Should India walk away from the program, it would take a hit of $295 million which is money already spent. If the program is not right for India, then $295 million is small change in my view to find that out.

In 2007, the Congress-led UPA government had signed an inter-governmental agreement with Russia to co-develop the next generation FGFA. It was followed by the $295 million (`1,483 crore) preliminary design contract (PDC) in December 2010. The overall FGFA project cost for making all the 127 fighters in India was pegged at around $25 billion.

The preliminary design stage of the FGFA programme was completed in June 2013 based on a contract signed in December 2010 with the Russian side.

As per the Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) signed in October 2007, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is the designated implementation organisation from the Indian side. HAL is supported by agencies, including Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).

The programme requires further $6 billion towards its research and development contract. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar-led defence acquisition council has to give its approval for the R&D contract. It is believed that the delivery of FGFA to the IAF will begin only after nearly eight years from the start of the R&D contract.
 

Brumby

Major
The Indians need the Russians, and the Russians need the Indians, I doubt there is much love lost between them, but it is mutually advantageous for each party to maintain that relationship. I believe the Indians would love to buy PAK-FA if it measured up to expectations, but 250 million a copy is a lot of "jack".

A true fifth gen plane doesn't come cheap. Any body who claims that it is either is in delusion or is talking about a plane in form but not in substance. There is only one nation so far who has produced an operational and production 5th gen. plane. One might argue that the Chinese have the J-20 but given the total lack of transparency and details the whole argument is sustained on an assumption of the qualitative nature of the product.
The Indians probably have the greatest access than anybody outside the Russians and their assessment is that the PAK-FA is not meeting their expectations in terms of stealth, avionics and engine - all important components of a 5th gen. product. In other words, the Russians haven't produced a quality product outside of the hype. Making claims is cheap talk. Actual performance delivery is difficult and hard work and that also applies to the Chinese except no one knows how deep a hole they are in and surely they are not advertising.
The US with the F-35 needs to drive cost down for affordability and the only way without compromising quality is through economies of scale by volume. It is a high risk implementation strategy and failure is not an option.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Does anyone have a definitive summary of the development costs incurred for the PAK-FA and FGFA?

I was under the impression much of this has already been spent.
 
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