Hypothetical Chinese military intervetion in Syria

that's a really good post i read it carefully to give it some thought. i'm no military expert so many of you guys can better comment on this topic but i don't really think china is capable of doing what you suggested in your post. to put 5000 or 10000 troops in foreign soil, in a hot zone so far away is beyond the capability of china. china's military is a defensive one, and they do an excellant job in defending china but once they leave china and go abroad that is different matter. They are different than the western militaries and Russia who have been fighting outside their own countries for as long as we can remember.

 

Which is why I believe that China's role will be mainly in logistics and maybe construction.

 

Given all of this thread's assumptions I think China will deploy much of its 8000 strong UN military contingent to help protect and rebuild specific areas already under the control of, or recaptured by, Syrian government forces.

The ground contingent will consist of mechanized infantry with organic reconnaissance (read UAV), AT, AA, and rotary aircraft (Z-10, Z-19, and Z-8) components protecting medical and engineering troops to provide/restore as much basic infrastructure as quickly as possible in designated safe zones. They may well build versions of the walled-off US Green Zone in Baghdad to defend against suicide bombers and service Syrian civilians. These forces would have arrived in theater by air and sea.

Naval contingent which will remain in theater will include two Type 071, with a foursome of frigate/destroyer escorts, a pair of supply ships, and possibly a hospital ship. A small number of Z-10, Z19, and Z-8 associated with the naval contingent will provide frequent escorted shuttling services and occasional defensive ground support.

I still doubt that China will contribute to offensive operations against IS, rather leaving that to others. I also doubt that China will do much in terms of electronic intelligence beyond sharing information derived from satellites and short range UAVs.

 

Who else have successfully used their military outside their homeland lately? World policing seems to be a losing cause all the time.

 

Not without an UN mandate and that requires an agreement by all the major powers. The chance of that happening is slim, but it will be truly awe inspiring if all the major powers can work out a deal to solve the Syrian tragedy together. Not just for humanitarian reasons, a festering Syria breeding terrorists is a threat to every countries in the world! Not since the defeat of fascism during WWII have the world been confronted by a danger that truly affects everyone, the major powers has every reason to work together in this case.

 

This is where I would disagree with you, desert warfare had always been about waterholes and mobility around them. i.e. fortresses around waterholes. The last 100 years saw something different and that is mobile armor cores in desert environment; but that most certainly does not invalidate thousands of years of experience. The Gobi was fortified and so was the Sahara and many parts of the middle east.

ISIS is not a mobile force, it is not an armor core, there are no strongholds to take and there is no army to smash. they are a guerrilla force and their greatest asset and Achilles heels is the freedom of movement.

Sending conventional forces against them is not cost effective; nor is sending F16s to bomb them.

Automated fortresses are cheap and replaceable, and a network of ~8000 of them will effectively cease all unauthorized movement. it might cost 200K-300K USD to make and deploy one, or around 2.4B USD to deploy, say, for the cost of 24 F35, isnt it a good deal?

Daesh will require heavy weapons to destroy the fortresses, say 105mm recoiless cannons or 200 mm rockets. So the question becomes, how easy it is to detect some men carrying a recoilless rifle on foot, or how fast/long can they run with the a 50 kg rocket? and even if they manage to hit one fort and so it be destroyed, can they survive the barrage of fire from the neighboring forts and the marauding UAV?

 

How about the civilians? Civilians have a legitimate need to move, not in the least is food and water. They are not going to starve or die of thirst just so you can have your cheap, clean, technical solution.

 

You'll have to keep them supplied. Think about the cost of deploying 8000 tanks to a country, now we're talking about 8000 bases.

I think, just set up long range MLRS (100 Km and above). stations around the country, defended by mobile armoured units. Each station can cover a wide area and each other, and can be redeployed if necessary. Layer each station with gun battery for closer and less expensive option, and AFV just in case. Have UAV surveillance for detecting approaching enemies and smart GPS guided munitions for the MLRS. Get more powerful mobile units to herd them into designated kill zones.