Hypothetical Chinese military intervetion in Syria

Discussion in 'Members' Club Room' started by plawolf, Sep 29, 2015.

  1. mr.bean
    Offline

    mr.bean Junior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2007
    Messages:
    596
    Likes Received:
    859
    that's a really good post i read it carefully to give it some thought. i'm no military expert so many of you guys can better comment on this topic but i don't really think china is capable of doing what you suggested in your post. to put 5000 or 10000 troops in foreign soil, in a hot zone so far away is beyond the capability of china. china's military is a defensive one, and they do an excellant job in defending china but once they leave china and go abroad that is different matter. They are different than the western militaries and Russia who have been fighting outside their own countries for as long as we can remember.
     
    PanAsian, perfume, JayBird and 2 others like this.
  2. solarz
    Offline

    solarz Brigadier

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    5,210
    Likes Received:
    5,635
    Which is why I believe that China's role will be mainly in logistics and maybe construction.
     
    PanAsian, perfume, JayBird and 3 others like this.
  3. PanAsian
    Offline

    PanAsian Major

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2005
    Messages:
    3,627
    Likes Received:
    4,434
    Given all of this thread's assumptions I think China will deploy much of its 8000 strong UN military contingent to help protect and rebuild specific areas already under the control of, or recaptured by, Syrian government forces.

    The ground contingent will consist of mechanized infantry with organic reconnaissance (read UAV), AT, AA, and rotary aircraft (Z-10, Z-19, and Z-8) components protecting medical and engineering troops to provide/restore as much basic infrastructure as quickly as possible in designated safe zones. They may well build versions of the walled-off US Green Zone in Baghdad to defend against suicide bombers and service Syrian civilians. These forces would have arrived in theater by air and sea.

    Naval contingent which will remain in theater will include two Type 071, with a foursome of frigate/destroyer escorts, a pair of supply ships, and possibly a hospital ship. A small number of Z-10, Z19, and Z-8 associated with the naval contingent will provide frequent escorted shuttling services and occasional defensive ground support.

    I still doubt that China will contribute to offensive operations against IS, rather leaving that to others. I also doubt that China will do much in terms of electronic intelligence beyond sharing information derived from satellites and short range UAVs.
     
    JayBird and Equation like this.
  4. Equation
    Offline

    Equation Lieutenant General

    Joined:
    May 11, 2011
    Messages:
    11,072
    Likes Received:
    13,748
    Who else have successfully used their military outside their homeland lately? World policing seems to be a losing cause all the time.
     
    Skye_ZTZ_113 and JayBird like this.
  5. shen
    Offline

    shen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2011
    Messages:
    1,321
    Likes Received:
    1,438
    Not without an UN mandate and that requires an agreement by all the major powers. The chance of that happening is slim, but it will be truly awe inspiring if all the major powers can work out a deal to solve the Syrian tragedy together. Not just for humanitarian reasons, a festering Syria breeding terrorists is a threat to every countries in the world! Not since the defeat of fascism during WWII have the world been confronted by a danger that truly affects everyone, the major powers has every reason to work together in this case.
     
    #15 shen, Sep 29, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2015
    newguy02 and JayBird like this.
  6. SampanViking
    Offline

    SampanViking The Capitalist
    Staff Member Super Moderator VIP Professional

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2005
    Messages:
    2,663
    Likes Received:
    1,606
    The Chinese interest will surely be primarily aimed at extremists originating from China.

    Not impossible to see Chinese intelligence on the ground backed up at the very least by Drone Attack Aircraft.

    If it went any further would they need a UN mandate? Not so sure on that one, if they are invited by the legitimate government of the Sovereign State. An SCO mission invited by Syria would be sufficient in this instance.

    An SCO Peace Keeping mission could be realistic as well. It would be useful to have such forces along sensitive border areas such as Turkey and Israel etc.
     
    Equation, newguy02, mr.bean and 4 others like this.
  7. plawolf
    Offline

    plawolf Brigadier

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2007
    Messages:
    6,129
    Likes Received:
    12,560
    There have been some excellent discussion points made by many, I have been quite busy lately and just didn't have a chance to make the sort of replies such posts deserves. Hopefully I will find some time to do so soon.

    As per China's principles (its non-interference principle specifically), national sovereignty is absolute so long as no international laws or treaties are broken in the exercising of that sovereignty.

    Short of being directly attacked or threatened with imminent attack, China would only consider doing something against the wishes of a nation's government on their soil if that action is explicitly authorised by an UN mandate (in the case of attack or imminent attack, UN rules are pretty cut and dried so China would be following the rules even in those extreme examples).

    Conversely, so long as no international laws or treaties are broken, and there isn't an UN mandate specifically prohibiting something, China would see long problems in granting requests by sovereign governments inviting China to come and do something on their soil. That is not interference in China's book.

    However, I can see China potentially drawing a line as far as fighting genuine domestic Syrian rebels, but since there are only like 4 of them left fighting in Syria these days, I don't think that is going to be a massive issue practically.

    As far as ISIS is concerned, fighting them would be the same as helping a country fight off foreign invasion.

    If China really wanted more diplomatic and legal cover, it could easily grant Syria's SCO membership request, and then deploy its troops under the SCO flag under the organisation's counter terrorism clauses.

    Remember when western "experts" openly mocked and made fun of that clause and SCO exercises involving tanks, jets and thousands of troops asking when you would need such assets and numbers to combat terrorists?

    The conflict in Syria is almost a textbook example of the kind of strife and internal unrest the SCO's military mandate was written to defend against.

    You really have to admire the planners and writers who got that pretty much spot on. Its almost like they saw this coming.
     
    Equation, newguy02, mr.bean and 4 others like this.
  8. Lezt
    Offline

    Lezt Junior Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 2006
    Messages:
    707
    Likes Received:
    237
    This is where I would disagree with you, desert warfare had always been about waterholes and mobility around them. i.e. fortresses around waterholes. The last 100 years saw something different and that is mobile armor cores in desert environment; but that most certainly does not invalidate thousands of years of experience. The Gobi was fortified and so was the Sahara and many parts of the middle east.

    ISIS is not a mobile force, it is not an armor core, there are no strongholds to take and there is no army to smash. they are a guerrilla force and their greatest asset and Achilles heels is the freedom of movement.

    Sending conventional forces against them is not cost effective; nor is sending F16s to bomb them.

    Automated fortresses are cheap and replaceable, and a network of ~8000 of them will effectively cease all unauthorized movement. it might cost 200K-300K USD to make and deploy one, or around 2.4B USD to deploy, say, for the cost of 24 F35, isnt it a good deal?

    Daesh will require heavy weapons to destroy the fortresses, say 105mm recoiless cannons or 200 mm rockets. So the question becomes, how easy it is to detect some men carrying a recoilless rifle on foot, or how fast/long can they run with the a 50 kg rocket? and even if they manage to hit one fort and so it be destroyed, can they survive the barrage of fire from the neighboring forts and the marauding UAV?
     
    Equation and JayBird like this.
  9. nemo
    Offline

    nemo Junior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2007
    Messages:
    362
    Likes Received:
    147
    How about the civilians? Civilians have a legitimate need to move, not in the least is food and water. They are not going to starve or die of thirst just so you can have your cheap, clean, technical solution.
     
    plawolf, JayBird and Equation like this.
  10. no_name
    Offline

    no_name Major

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2010
    Messages:
    3,578
    Likes Received:
    2,464
    You'll have to keep them supplied. Think about the cost of deploying 8000 tanks to a country, now we're talking about 8000 bases.

    I think, just set up long range MLRS (100 Km and above). stations around the country, defended by mobile armoured units. Each station can cover a wide area and each other, and can be redeployed if necessary. Layer each station with gun battery for closer and less expensive option, and AFV just in case. Have UAV surveillance for detecting approaching enemies and smart GPS guided munitions for the MLRS. Get more powerful mobile units to herd them into designated kill zones.
     
Loading...

Share This Page