How to handle West economic embargo in hypothetical scenario

Discussion in 'Members' Club Room' started by antimatter, Dec 7, 2008.

  1. antimatter
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    antimatter Banned Idiot

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    for various reasons maybe the devaluation of the Yuan, the west wants Yuan keep rising and rising. China doesn't want to do that. Myabe for the political reasons, such Tibet issues.


    recently As long time planed, finally the French President Nicolas Sarkozy met His Holiness the Dalai Lama Saturday at a gathering of Nobel Peace Prize laureates in the Polish city of Gdansk, shrugging off Chinese anger, an Elysee spokesman said.

    "One must approach this calmly," Sarkozy said minutes prior to the meeting. "The world needs an open China that participates in global governance. China needs a powerful Europe that gives work to Chinese enterprise."
    French president, Nicolas Sarkozy is the first European head of state to meet His Holiness the Dalai Lama while holding the European Union's rotating presidency.


    He's implying EU is giving jobs to chinese people. Without EU buying chinese goods, CHina will not able survive.
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    I don't think it's likely to happen, but for argument sake, and for worst case scenario. How would CHina handle if there's an ideology battle or confronation between China and the West. West decides embargo and boycott chinese goods.

    I think as long as China master the technology across the whole spectrum and has the foundation to innovate, improve , self generate, then the hypothetical west embargo and boycott would be ineffective.
    China can still develope and advance its own technology to improve itself. continue to develope products to sell to other parts of the world.
    On the other thread, I post one that says CHina needs to have its own computer industry. If the west stop shipping its semiconductor chips, the intel processors, the OS, its equipments, would CHina grinding to a halt. Therefore I promote CHina capable of develope the equipments to make the chips, to continue its own technology industry, develope its own software.
    Some when that hypothetical day of west embargo comes China would not grind to a halt because it has its own system and technology foundation.

    I see China wants develope its own airplane, ships, trains, cars. It's all necessary to be independent.
    keep in mind have to really master the know how from gound up, not just know how to license produce and manufacture. Need the know how to improve and innovate base on that foundation.
     
  2. pla101prc
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    pla101prc Senior Member

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    it seems that China as a developing country wants to exploit this opportunity to speed up its infrastructure development. so by directing its money to these fixed capital China is telling the west "well you are on your own". i guess China wants to outlast the west in this crisis and when they are significantly weakened China will somehow enhance its position as a major economic power or something
     
  3. antimatter
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    antimatter Banned Idiot

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    Just look at how many foreign firms dominated the chinese markets, the toyota, honda, SONY samsung, LG, volkswagon, GM, microsoft, intel, AMD, Siemens, GE....etc. Right now a large share of economic cake inside China are eaten by foreign companies.

    If CHina has its computer industry and tech companies, those millions losing their jobs from manufacturing toys, clothes would work on the new industry. CHina can fill up lose job positions if they take back a large share economic cake inside CHina and give to the domestic ones.
     
  4. FriedRiceNSpice
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    FriedRiceNSpice Senior Member

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    Well, I can assure you that if the West did launch an embargo on China, Toyota, Honda, Sony, Samsung, and LG will definetly not jump on the bandwagon. China can also obtain Intel and AMD products from non-Western countries easily.
     
  5. antimatter
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    antimatter Banned Idiot

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    Not sure about that, after all, there are large public demonstrations for support of the Tibetan issue both in Japan and SK. It will be ideology battle between the west and CHina. and Japan/SK will most likely taking the west sides. therefore, CHina has to hedge against that.

    Anyway, the first salvo already fired by Sarkozy regarding to the tibet issue.
    Obviously,he's implying the west has the potential to embargo China.
     
  6. AssassinsMace
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    AssassinsMace Brigadier

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    Everything important is already restricted from China. The panic is more on France's side. Their non-essential-to-the-world billions of dollars luxury business is one example that's going to suffer in an already saturated market. And it's arrogant to think that somehow China can't operate at anything without Western involvement. All this talk is just talk. The same with China. China pulls out these statements that its feelings are hurt does nothing productive. Action speaks louder than words. China gave France the impression of its importance by stifling anti-French sentiment earlier in the year. If China wants to get its "message" across, then it should just shut up and be selective on who they let do business with China. China is doing France a favor. China should just start buying what it really needs from Boeing and Westinghouse and shut out Airbus and Areva without saying a word. What China can buy that it needs isn't a monopoly of France. Who's going to follow an embargo when an ally is reaping the tens of billions every year France just lost? Shut out China in an embargo but you can't shut down the factories that made those products. That's the amazing thing about outsourcing. The factories that make those products aren't owned by the company who owns the product. China can still make and flood the world with those products and reap the profits from them. Go ahead and try to embargo China. Then China will have no second thoughts on really supporting interests in the world that counter the West.

    See why talk of embrago is a bunch of bull. If they were really in that much of control over China, wouldn't they have exercised that power by now? Embargo will have much more damaging effect to their interests not just commercial.
     
  7. flyboy2008
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    flyboy2008 New Member

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    China ultimately needs a strong military for national security. Tibet has the world's largest freshwater reserves, and many abundant minerals. This is why the West wants to divide up China because freshwater will be like Oil, a scarce commodity.

    Whoever controls these Tibetan mountains control China because China's rivers are directly fed by these mountains.

    China has a lot to be afraid of. If the west embargoes China, then China's economy will be devastated.

    What China needs to do is develop the Chinese middle class, so that China's economy is not export oriented but domestic driven. If China can create a middle class of 250 million who will SPEND and drive their economy, then China has no need to fear an Embargo by anyone. Everyone will then want to sell China their goods.
     
  8. SampanViking
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    SampanViking The Capitalist
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    In 2008, China's Industries are global and can no longer be locked out by simplying banning made in china!

    This has become vividly evident by the response of Chinese Companies to the EU Textile Quota system designed to restrict Chinese Imports. Chinese companies have simply bought EU clothing companies, many based around Milan, as a result the quotas are rendered meaningless and their main intent; to preserve EU workers jobs, defeated, as large numbers of Chinese worlers are brought over to work in these EU factories, displacing local labour.

    You only need to look at the increasing Chinese presence in Africa and South America to realise how easily the production of unbranded consumer goods could be transferred or simply hidden through such a network. Add to this, given that the EU could never match Chinese production values, that importers would simply find more opaque ways to source and purchase.

    In short, "Festung Europa" is not an option and would only serve to isolate Europe from the rest of the Global market and any attempt to use protectionist methods to artifically create EU competitiveness in consumer goods, would very rapidly be blown and fail.

    China's recent announcments regarding US Financial companies are all in accordance with expectation and Investment now will concentrate on domestic growth and direct overseas projects. China now has the spin that this Investment can no longer be attacked as a growing sinister and malign influence, undermining Western attempts to spread its vision of Democracy and Human Rights, but a responsible program to help maintain and stabilise the world economy.
     
  9. antimatter
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    antimatter Banned Idiot

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    I think self developed technology is more important than so called being middle class. If China can develope its airplane, ships, trains, processors, softwares, equipments, employed its people to do the jobs and being self sufficient at produce enough food for its people. Barter and trade for natural resources from other countries. Just being self -sufficient.

    Why even bother to be categoried as the middle class?
     
  10. pla101prc
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    pla101prc Senior Member

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    i agree with antimatter. if you can produce everything on your own, then as wealth accumulates this "middle class" will automatically expand.

    what flyboy is suggesting is in essence to encourage consumerism to a LIMITED extent. this can be achieved by relieving the burden on health care housing and education. but its much more difficult than it sounds.
    we also cannot ignore the HUGE potential market in the rural area. if these ppl gets rich, then China gets rich. but then again they have only recently began to enjoy the fruit of economy development after Hu came along.
     
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