how to grab taiwan in 7 days

Funnily enough Taiwan has been on my mind the last few days as well.

I am not going to comment on the article, as I do not really give the scenario much credence. More to the point however is that the KMT last weekend won a landslide victory in the 3 in 1 elections. Sure these are local and mayoral elections and yes as much a reaction to recent DPP sleaze revalations, but.....

Could we also be seeing the beginnings of a very substantial pyschological change in the Taiwanese - possibly so unconscious that most would be schooked by the realisation of it, that China no longer scares them as the Antipithetical enemy?

I also have some questions regarding the Arms Package currently on hold in the Parliament. These are meant only for Taiwanese or Ex Pat Taiwanese.

1) How much would this package cost and over how long would they need to be paid for.

2) What proportion of Govt spending would this purchase represent over that period.

3) would it be funded by tax increases or budget cuts in other spending depts.

4) If tax by how much

5) If cuts in budgets - where would they fall and how great would they need to be and the impact of them etc.

Again I ask these exclusively to Taiwanese - so non Taiwanese please refrain from answering

Thanks

its unrealistic to compare america/iraq to china/taiwan. my feeling is that china is going to plan to instal a government which makes the taiwanese feel happy and still in power. i wouldtn be surprised if the chinese sieze the taiwanese media. but china simply wouldnt go in and start carpet bombing taipei. the prc has many of sun-tzus principles in mind, and winning your enemyies heart will be the strategy for taiwan. perhaps a taiwaneses member interview is nessecary, to find out how they feel about this.

unlike iraq, taiwanese troops would rather sureender than fight like maniacs believing they can join muhammed. the taiwanese also dont prefer suicide tacitics liek car bombs. they also dont locates their hospitals convienientltly next to military bases. if the pla were to come, there would be fewer civilian casualties. im betting pla commanders would reprimand men who fire on civilians.

thirdly, the pla would probably engage taiwan by deploying the armed forces, but would give taiwan perhaps a 48 hour mandate to decide whether to accept reunification or not. the whole point is to make taiwan feel like its not surrendering, but simply joining a bigger group.

Not a bad artical. Nor the Greatest. But none the less entertaining. I dont think anybody but the PLA high command realy knows what the op-plan will be for the taking of the ROC. It could be a planned quicky or much more methodical and incrimental. Who Knows? I think the "quicky" could be much more risky but could have a high amount of sucesses if the ROC army does not fight. NOW if the ROC does fight....well the PLA would have a problem. so I think I am leaning towards?????????? not sure. BUT I think we will find out after 2008.....cheers neo-conservitive right wing american nationalist utelore. PS Im sure china will put on a class act at the big O....looking forward to it.:nana:

Pardon me if this has been studied before,


But let us consider the case that the US turns out to be bluffing and had decided Taiwan is not worth fighting for. In this hypothetical, China invades Taiwan and to China's surprise America does not intervene except maybe to evacuate important Taiwanese government leaders.

So the question becomes: If America chooses not to intervene militarily, what politically consequences can China expect to suffer?

The UN can't take any action (Chinese veto).

The UN general assembly can pass a vote to condemn the invasion. But would the US even get enough votes for this? Most third world countries are not particularly eager to side with the US against China.

US dominated institutions would be a different matter. Institutions such as NATO, the IMF, and the World Bank will take actions against China to be sure. America would make every effort to insure chinese assets in world banks would be seized. The US congress will pass sanctions on China, the US navy may even be authorized to hit China with an embargo. The Japanese and British navies would gladly assist. Europe may pass sanctions, not just military but a host of sanctions.

But a trade war would hurt the west as much as China. There would be a careful calculation to find the balancing point where the West can make China hurt more. Hitting China hard would be an oil embargo. Also, China's expanding merchant marines would be easy pickings for the US navy. It would take many years for China to rebuild. You can bet Taiwan's merchant marine fleet would be captured(in the name of Taiwan) by the West across the world. China would only capture the 10% or so that were moored in Taiwan at the time.

In return, the West loses billions and billions of cheap consumer goods. That's not as valuable as oil. In fact, the West can afford to lose this for several months on end before the spiralling cost of living hurts US consumers to the point of outcry. During the first few months, they'll understand the need for boycotting China and simply not buy cheap goods for a while. But certainly after a year, they'll yearn for the cheap consumer goods they've had before.

After a year, negotiations would begin for resuming trade. But in that time, China would suffer much more than the West. Loss of oil, money, and commercial ships would be a major setback for China. China can increase the pinch on US consumers by timing the invasion of Taiwan just before the holiday shopping season. Just like 9-11, that would have a devastating effect on consumer confidence and this could help drive public opinion to seek a negotiated trade settlement sooner rather than later.

But the American economic position would be much stronger. There would be many points in negotiations that America can refuse to concede on such as: unfreezing Chinese overseas bank assets, recognizing the occupation of Taiwan, turning over the Taiwanese government in Exile, handing over Taiwanese bank accounts and other Taiwanese overseas capital (such as the majority of their merchant fleet).

The US doesn't have to concede any points at all -save one: lifting the embargo. This would be in America's own interests anyway. As Chinese trade with America and Europe begin to return to normal, the West will be alot richer, and China will find itself endeavoring to recover the frozen and seized assets of both their own accounts and the accounts of the former nation of Taiwan. This may never happen.

Hmmmm.

This scenario looks quite attractive, and seems a better alternative than to commit US forces to fight to save Taiwan.

Sorry Fairthought, but I think your outline is far to dangerous for the West to attempt.

the key to any future action would be the circumstances arising that would prompt China to Invade in the first place. Without a full and complete understanding of these events and all the background diplomacy with which they would be associated, trying to discuss the aftermath is probably pointless.

I would however say, that; if I understand the Chinese concepts of National Power and configuration of Natural Power in any form, that the CCP's need to maintain order would; in the absence of ecconomic growth, be transferred to military might and direct itself at those nations that supported the West against China. In otherwords China would fully mobilise and attack Japan.

I also think you underestimate the effect of disrupting the world economy in this way. I believe it would be enough to trigger the biggest global recession of the past 200 years and that is before you take T Bond dumping into account.

All of this is just too unlikely. Contrary to the mood in this thread, cross straights relations are actually improving with a very real prospect of the KMT retaking power and moving closer to normalisation.

I think what everyone is forgetting is that if any US bases or territories were attacked without provacation we would probably nuke the aggressor such as china or russia. Very dangerous scenerio. Mutual assured destruction is still and always will be US doctrine.

yeah right. i dont think most amercians would be happy to see the whole word get destroyed just over a small, insignifigant island. any politician who thinks mutually assured destruction is a good doctrine is obviosly too thick heade to think of the consequences.

You apparently have no idea on how serious the US government takes security and national sovereignty. Trust me if China did have a surprise attack against say Guam or Hawaii or our bases in Japan with missles or whatever then the kid gloves would come off. Believe what you will but I know our policy.

Pardon me for being blunt EternalVigil, but that's a stupid policy. Granted it may be true under the current Bush Administration because without any moral standing left, all America today has is military force, and it's all Bush knows to use. I can't tell whether or not you approve of it, though so kindly don't take this as an insult.

I thought FairThought's scenario was pretty well thought out, although the true economic consequences would probably be more severe than he hypothesized.

Realistically speaking though, any military invasion of Taiwan would definitely come after 2008, after Bush is out of office, and after the Olympics. The US foreign policy may or may not still be the idiotic "Kill everyone" policy it has now.

MiGLeader's post about Americans not willing to sacrifice the whole world over an insignificant island is sadly true. Anyone who hasn't been blinded by Bush's "Defending Democracy in Taiwan" propoganda can tell that Taiwan is only valuable to the US because of its location and animosity towards China.

Of course, whether or not it is insignificant to those living there is a completely different story. But I won't get into that.

I would predict that over the next few years the KMT slowly regains control over the Taiwanese government, and sometime after 2010 they secede Taiwan to China peacefully. After years of pro-China propoganda chances are dissent from the civilian population will be minimal. Of course it mostly depends on how the current KMT leader Mayor Ma conducts things. He is not a complete pro-China guy, it's hard to tell what he's really trying to do.

If you notice I said nothing about Taiwan. MAD policy has always been there for US territories and states going back way before this current administration.