how to grab taiwan in 7 days

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by MIGleader, Dec 7, 2005.

  1. MIGleader
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    MIGleader Banned Idiot

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  2. The_Zergling
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    The_Zergling Junior Member

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    Personally I think the article was overly simple, with a few basic mistakes concerning weaponary...

    "Taiwan's navy would have little to do in this war scenario, except sink like rocks. A few would shoot down a small number of the Chinese planes heading to Taiwan, but most would be taken out of action by China's numerous anti-ship missiles. Of particular annoyance is the nasty Russian-made Sunburn anti-ship missile (ASM). Three times as fast as the US Harpoon ASM, the Sunburn does not slam into the side of a ship like the Harpoon; instead, as it nears the target it rises above it and then dives straight down through the deck of the ship. The speed and angle of the attack make it nearly impossible to shoot down or to disable by electronic countermeasures or jamming."

    I'm not going to comment about the author's remarks regarding the Taiwan Navy, but I recall that the description of the Sunburn precisely fits the characteristics of the Harpoon missile (except for speed)

    In addition, I believe that the author's assumptions about the pro-KMT military is somewhat inaccurate. Granted the attitude of the conscript soldiers isn't positive, and it is generally true that most of the young men are eager to finish their Tour of Duty and get back to life/college/whatever but that does not completely discount them.

    Considering that this potential decapitation strike is mostly in Taipei, a densely populated urban area, it is hard to predict that civilian casualties wouldn't be appalingly high. Regardless of how they feel about the current Taiwanese administration, I do not believe that any normal soldier wouldn't feel indignation towards those that would hurt their friends and family. (Believe it or not, there are soldiers whose homes are in Taipei that won't be pleased seeing Chinese soldieres)

    The author acknowledges that the operation wouldn't simply be assassination, urban fighting would inevitably be involved. The area they are talking about is one of the busiest in Taipei. Unless the Chinese special forces are willing to discriminately and carefully pick out targets in the large crowds, it will be a bloody civilian massacre that will no doubt anger the Taiwanese, regardless of how they regard China.

    Also, I believe that the "Identiy crisis within Taiwan's military" is not very accurate. The author states that "The idea that Taiwan is part of China still resonates strongly within the military"

    My dad, some of my friends, my relatives (male) are all former Taiwanese soldieres, and though none of them are eager to get into a conflict with China (Anyone who is eager to kill should be ashamed of themselves) I don't believe that they wouldn't be willing to defend their homes and families in the case of an invasion, regardless of how they feel about China. My family has relatives in China, but I don't think that they'll feel great about innocent people in Taipei getting killed by accident. Feeling friendly towards China is different than feeling friendly to soldiers who come to your soil and kill people. Since Taiwan is so small there is also a certain chance that those people might be somebody you care about.

    It is true that you cannot tell that Taiwan's soldiers are based in Taiwan solely based on their insignia, but it is not logical to directly conclude that the Taiwanese army regards itself as "The Army of Mainland China"

    Some of the author's military analysis is relatively accurate, but I would have to strongly disagree with some of it, especially when he asserts that "everyone" knows the location of the PAC missile batteries and therefore they are easy to destroy and his proposed end of this conflict, the part in which he states that the new Pro-Beijing government will be swiftly sworn in.

    Granted, speaking in terms of raw power and military force, there is no way Taiwan can hold off this strike should it happen according to this author's hypothetical plan. But a glance at history can relatively accurately tell us that the real problems would come AFTER military operations have ended.

    "It is well known there are many pro-China legislators who have investments in China and more than a few who have had private meetings with Beijing officials. The inauguration would be conducted in the spotlight of the international media, giving it some psychological legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. There would be too many pro-China people in the US State Department - privately relieved the Taiwan issue was finally settled - to say anything in Taiwan's defense. "

    The above statement is "true". What I mean by that the first part is true, and no doubt the inauguration would be in the international media. However, that would not give it definite psychological legitimacy, any more than the world believes that the puppet Iraqi government is completely "legitimate".

    I disagree that there would be nobody willing to say something in Taiwan's defense.

    Most of Taiwan's people simply want to get on with their lives and could care less about Taiwan/China relations, because they don't believe anything will happen, and if something DOES happen it will be peaceful.

    But if you bring the horrors of war to their faces you'll never hear the end of it. Never mind that this hypothetical scenario is set only in Taipei, and the rest of Taiwan won't be directly affected. Taipei IS Taiwan's most important city, not to mention its largest city. The simple fact that civilian casualties will be unavoidable makes this a scary scenario.

    The sad example of the US occupation of Iraq shows that if the civilian population is pissed off at you, you will have a hard time maintaining control. Even if you believe that all of Taiwan's people believe that Taiwan is "A part of Great China" you would be hard pressed to find someone who wouldn't be pissed off at being killed or having a loved one die for no real justifiable reason.

    In short, I believe that the military aspects of the author's scenario are possible, but a smooth transfer of power and the future is inaccurate from my point of view.

    I'm interested in hearing comments from the rest of you... this is certainly an interesting albeit inaccurate article...
     
    #2 The_Zergling, Dec 7, 2005
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2005
  3. crobato
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    crobato Colonel
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    Personally I think the article is a bit silly. Too much imagination, too much hypotheticals, too much questions.

    Is China's SSMs that accurate to be used in that scenario?

    Where did the 500 H-5 bombers came from?

    Kitty Hawk? Isn't that going to be retired soon?

    Carrier group in Guam is at best a remote chance because politicians from Hawaii, which carry more weight in Congress, would prefer to move a CBVG group over there to help the local Hawaiian economy.

    The use of prostitutes as spies is the part that gives me the best laugh.
     
  4. crazyinsane105
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    crazyinsane105 Junior Member
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    Didn't the Americans think that the Iraqis would greet them as liberators? Well, look what has happened now. Even if Taiwan's citizens get hold of a small amount of military weaponry, they can cause havoc in the future to Chinese forces. China will have to be very careful not to cause massive civilian casualties and other things that have caused the US to suffer in Iraq.
     
  5. drunkhomer
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    drunkhomer Junior Member

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    anyhoo...i found dat majority of taiwanese ppl r not willing to defend taiwan from a chinese invasion....here is just one on many polls

    Question One: "If the Chinese Communists attack Taiwan, would you be willing to defend Taiwan's territory?"

    Unwilling: 65%
    Willing: 35%

    Question Two: "If the Chinese Communists attack Taiwan, what would be your reaction?"

    Raise the white flag and surrender: 18.1%
    Wait to die: 19.2%
    Wait for US or other troops to come to the rescue: 21.9%
    Resist to the end: 28.6%
    Other: 12.2%

    Question Three: "Why wouldn't you be willing to go to the front line?"

    As a woman I oppose war: 22.8%
    Taiwan is no match for the Chinese mainland: 30.5%
    Going to war will merely turn me into cannon fodder: 25.6%
    If a fight is necessary, it would be better to reunify with the Chinese mainland: 12.2%

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig5/chu3.html
     
  6. chinawhite
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    chinawhite Banned Idiot

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    I posted this article ages ago.

    Anyway the best result for china would be if the KMT came into power. I am not talking about re-unification but status quo until taiwanese fell weel to join china again.

    I do not support force and i definatly dont support the use of it. I see chinas moderization as focused on japan and he US instead of being focused on taiwan. Anyway I dont want to go to deep.

    Zergling do you agree that the army is sworn more to Pan-blue/KMT than Pan-green/DPP?

    Regards,

    chinawhite
     
  7. mach
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    mach Just Hatched
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    KMT is reluctant to join China as DPP ,and Ma Yingjiu merely regard CCP as a tool to gain power.
    When mainland "invades" Taiwan, I am quite sure that the army of Taiwan will fight against Chinese army to death with the lead of the KMT, IMO.
     
  8. Gollevainen
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    Gollevainen Colonel
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    Yes Taiwan, Taiwan, Taiwan...you seem to be pretty bold to dig this one up even when none of us superiors have given you promise to do so...
    But there is need of showing up hunging in the air, for you to prove your deserved some more libertyes...let make this thread a test for it and see how you can play nicely...sofar im encouraged by the fact too silly has came up...

    And I think I'll jump in too...


    To me its always been kinda difficoult thing to conversate taiwan matters in our forum as i cannot understand the 'mainland' point of wiev. But then again, i understand it, somehow, just dont get it...and what comes to invading Taiwan, people tend to think wheter its parade march for PLA or otherwise for Taiwanese army. I think it isent so simple. Both have their serious disavantages that can turn the battle into intresting paths (as long as any war can be desriped intresting). Taiwan seems outward to not to withstand long period of PRC offensive actions, but as a finn, I tend to look things from different angle than 'bigger' world.
    If we managed to do miracles, why cannot Taiwanese done? people tend to forget that national spirit is peculiar thing that can be overestimated but aslo underestimated. You can came up dozen good reason why wouldnt Taiwanese feel themseves as seperate nation and bla bla bla...but there is one good reason why the migth start suddenly feel one; incoming attack by 'foreing' force. Finland managed to unificate after the civilwar strif, even when the opponent was the 'promised land' for the one drifting party, and Soviets tryed to use this card wery eagerly...whitout any feedback from our side.
    Well diving deeper of that matter one can only count the numerous mistakes Stalin made to paralyze all foreing communist movements, but have PRC done its deed any better? I can say much about it as im not so familar with Taiwan situation, but that is the key element of any oncoming fighting between two chinas. if there is will in Taiwan to defend, then the occupation can be too costly for PRC, there isent toys in taiwanese garrisons. Amphibious assaults arent from the simplest possible military operation, and sofar PLAN hasent got any experiences of conducting strategic landings...as well as they havent got even secondhand (meaning beeing the 'taking' part) experiences of any strategical operations. I severly doupt that current PLA could handle it as smoothly that it still represent the orginal motive for war.

    Some of you post 'research' about this manner. i would like to see how those researches were made...lets say make one when Chinese LSTs are all ready underway and missiles beeing ignated...(god, i sound like vince;) hope i didnt generalize things too much...)
     
  9. Wingman
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    Wingman Junior Member

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    Ok, there are many things I have to disagree with this author. There is too much gambling and assumptions.

    I know he mentioned anti-SAM, anti-airbase, anti-ship later, but THAT should be the first phase, otherwise those transport planes are going to be shot down like flies. And even if they were successful, is 11000 troops enough? This is sort of a big gamble here.

    Wishful thinking...
    It's way dangerous to make such assumptions about the enemy. Sun Tzu would probably be very disappointed

    This is just... stupid. I wouldn't want the PLA to sink that low

    How the hell would those special forces even get there? Security would be extra-tight in these places should there be a war. And without actual fighting and total chaos going on in these places, it would be close to impossible to slip them in.

    He mentioned ballistic missiles against US airbases in Japan which would be more likely to succeed. But is japan just going to stay cool about it? How do you know they're not going to retaliate? How do you know the Americans are not going to start a full scale war just because of the missiles? Even if China takes over Taiwan both militarily and politically it doesn't mean the Americans are just going to shrug and sail away after their airbases got bombed. They might continue and fight PLA forces on Taiwan, and it's not going to be easy for the PLA.
     
  10. The_Zergling
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    The_Zergling Junior Member

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    In response to MigLeader's question on whether or not Taiwan's military forces are mostly pro-KMT...

    Honestly speaking, I am not completely sure, since I have not been in the military before. However, something to consider is that there ARE quite a few Taiwanese soldiers pushing for the arms budget that keeps being blocked by the "blue" legislature, which tells you something about their desire to be able to defend themself against invasion.

    If the Taiwanese soldiers want decent weaponary, I would say as a rule they would be willing to defend themselves.

    Whether or not the soldiers pissed off at the KMT for refusing to get them some important defensive weaponary represent the majority is something I am not qualified to do.

    But from this, I would say that the majority would be willing to fight, KMT or not. It mostly depends on how affected they would feel by the civilian deaths, I suppose.
     
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