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Discussion in 'Members' Club Room' started by Pika, Aug 14, 2019.
I think the single most important country for China is Russia
This is where you are wrong, because you can't see the bigger picture. First of all, even though I used the term "weak and ineffectual", these two words themselves are too vague and generalized. Ukraine, Hong Kong and Libya could all be viewed as having a "weak and ineffectual" government. But they are totally different. Hong Kong government is NOT the same as Ukrainian and Libyan governments.
Ukrainian and Libyan governments are structurally weak, they are plagued by corruption, incompetency and they lack the institutional capabilities to contend with "social engineering warfare" you've mentioned earlier.
Hong Kong government and institution itself is not weak. They are actually extremely strong and effective. The problem with Hong Kong is their inherent problem with their separation of power.
Because the uniqueness of Hong Kong's history and the 1C2S system, HK's executive, legislative and judicial power are divided along racial/ethnic identity lines. This gives it a fatal flaw in a social environment when identity politics and populism are on a rise.
HK wants to be a western democratic society. However, a western democratic society can only be stable when its governmental power is not divided along racial/ethnic lines.
Imagine the US, with a right-wing white house, a far left dominated parliament, and a supreme court where most of the Judges are Mexicans and Venezuelans who don't have US citizenship.
The thing is that if everyone is rational and think logically about their interest and their communities interest, then there'd be no such thing as propaganda. Propaganda exists because most people are not rational. Most people are impressionable, emotional and easily influenced, it is extremely easy to romanticize ideology of democracy, however it is extremely difficult to educate people about the intricacy of economy and development.
Therefore you find most of the rioters being from the younger population, they are an extremely emotional and impressionable bunch. China haven't learnt to play this game, while the west is expert at this.
And US politicians have come out to rebuke the NBA for denying the freedom of speech of the Houston Rockets GM which they haven't done.
Look at how the anglo journalist blocks him from getting in the building to get beat up...
Definitely, but we are not talking about that. Enroger and I are talking about China's ability to win hearts worldwide rather than which allies are most strategically important. Russia's kinda easy since its interests are just too aligned with China's. Enroger's worried that China cannot win the hearts of the people in the world while American propaganda can. Check out the world poll I added into the last post to really drive home my point.
The single most important ally for China is certainly Russia. This alliance will decide the fate of the entire world.
If this alliance falters, WW3 will happen, and it will be the same as WW1. China, Russia and Europe will go to war with each other, in the end they will all lose. They will all be reduced to rubble and balkanized. The US will emerge as the absolute ruler of the world.
That is what CIA wants to see, PLA with full power march to HK and kill the protestors, afterthat EU and USA will be united to contain and sanction China. Hongkongers died , China is sanctioned with very little effort from intelligence agency, such a beautiful plot .
But now, after pouring so much money and effort, China is relatively silence and a lot of Hongkonger began to see this useless movement ( their number down from "million" to "thousands", and they are frustated ).
I can't predict what will China do, but I believe Chinese was the ones to understand Suntzu' Art of War best.
should the WW3 happen according to your scenario, it'd be interesting to see who'd be the next post-WW1 Germany if you know what I mean (one of the WW1 losers who later caused WW2 -- would be WW4 then)
I don't know where you get this idea of racial/ethnic line, Hong Kong is predominantly han chinese. If you mean some HKer's might identify themselves more as British then yes I tend to agree.
A more underlying structural problem is with the economy, Hong Kong is stagnant, fundamental problem is the high property prices. The funny thing is if people were rational and use the same amount of fervent to protest about real social-economical issue then we might get somewhere, this is something the HK government and CCP is willing to work on.
That's not true either. Because there are a lot of ways the PAP could intervene in Hong Kong. They could simply function as reinforcements to the HK police. The whole "marching into HK" is just a mental picture. The PAP has much much more high tech toys than the HK police to disperse the crowd without a Tiananmen style "tank entry".