Growing Asymmetries in the China-Japan Naval Balance

pugachev_diver

pugachev_diver

Banned Idiot
The same applies to Germany. Despite having a population even better educated than that of America, they were not able to develop their military industry after the war. France on the other hand was no better off compared to the Germans. Their country's infrastructure was wiped flat just like the Germans. But because they were victor of WWII, Americans could not have a leash on their neck. The French could achieve as high as they want.
It is sad to see the once mighty Luftwaffe now only has foreign made jets. Although the Unterseeboots are advanced, they are not even as big as those made in India.
The Japanese are no better off. Anything they do faces intervention from Uncle Sam. Anytime they attempt to develop something indigenously, the Americans would immediately kill off that idea and transfer the technology. Now the Japanese ended up like the Indians, being spoon fed to the point that they can't develop anything on their own.
 
pugachev_diver

pugachev_diver

Banned Idiot
Many may say that the arms embargo since 1989 is a bad thing for China. But to a great extent this is a good thing. Many would agree that the best way to teach a boy how to swim is to throw him into the pool and force him to float on his own. If the 89 incident didn't happen, the Chinese military would be just like any other NATO countries. Although look advanced and elite on the outside, everything would come to a halt if Americans pull out.
If China is still an ally of the US, it would probably be still flying the F15 and F16s these days. The J-10 would never fruit. J-20 would probably never exist. Even if the two break up today. We would still not see J-20 for another 20-30 years.
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
pugachev_diver said:
Many may say that the arms embargo since 1989 is a bad thing for China. But to a great extent this is a good thing. Many would agree that the best way to teach a boy how to swim is to throw him into the pool and force him to float on his own. If the 89 incident didn't happen, the Chinese military would be just like any other NATO countries. Although look advanced and elite on the outside, everything would come to a halt if Americans pull out.
If China is still an ally of the US, it would probably be still flying the F15 and F16s these days. The J-10 would never fruit. J-20 would probably never exist. Even if the two break up today. We would still not see J-20 for another 20-30 years.
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Thanks Pugachev ... your analysis of China, Japan, Germany, India and Soviet Union are really astute and accurate, the way you explain it make it really easy to digest even to my son :)
 
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kroko

Senior Member
tphuang said:
. There really is no other shipyard in China that can rival the shipbuilding capability of JN. That's why 051C just doesn't have the hull that comes out of the JN shipyard.
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Interesting. I wonder if that still holds true in terms of military ships, due to dalian now having the varyag refitting. That must have tipped the balance in favour of dalian.
 
pugachev_diver

pugachev_diver

Banned Idiot
kroko said:
Interesting. I wonder if that still holds true in terms of military ships, due to dalian now having the varyag refitting. That must have tipped the balance in favour of dalian.
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A naked ship doesn't do much at this stage, it still take quite a few years until J15 could go on ships. Then it would take another year or two until all these crews can be trained and maximize the ships potential. PLAN is not like the US navy, where it could just retire a carrier and transfer the crews to the new one. China doesn't have these kind of carrier crew, they have to train them from scratch.
 
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kroko

Senior Member
pugachev_diver said:
Even today, Japan still has the upper hand, in terms of technology and production ability (...) Japan still got more ships and they are extremely new. They add a heavy sub every year, each with tonnage almost able to match nuclear powered counterparts (...) Japan's technology is much more rounded than China.
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Thats not unsurprising. Japan has a long story of nilitary shipbuilding dating back to the early XX century...it already built carriers in the 1930´s (even nazi germany had to copy IJN carrier tech in order to build graf zeppelin); they built the largest battleship ever created...

compare that to china who only started to built decent warships less than 20 years ago. Of course japan is far ahead

But i agree that eventually china will surpass japan´s level. Perhabs not in terms of tech (after all they have US tech), but at least in terms of total tonnage and numbers.

for example china new SSK is as large as the soryu class. Perhabs not as advanced, but the size is similar. thats something.

If they could get to build something as large as the kongo class...

But i think that the tipping point would be for china to built AC. I dont think that the "leash" will allow japan to go there. After all, japan cant get offensive weapons, and AC´s are definetly offensive weapons.

pugachev_diver said:
A naked ship doesn't do much at this stage, it still take quite a few years until J15 could go on ships. Then it would take another year or two until all these crews can be trained and maximize the ships potential. PLAN is not like the US navy, where it could just retire a carrier and transfer the crews to the new one. China doesn't have these kind of carrier crew, they have to train them from scratch.
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Im talking about shipyards, not the effectiveness of the ship
 
R

Red___Sword

Junior Member
pugachev_diver said:
The same applies to Germany. Despite having a population even better educated than that of America, they were not able to develop their military industry after the war. France on the other hand was no better off compared to the Germans. Their country's infrastructure was wiped flat just like the Germans. But because they were victor of WWII, Americans could not have a leash on their neck. The French could achieve as high as they want.
...
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I agree the statement of "uncle sam have a leash on &&&& ", but I think you made it sounds "too easy" for someone NOT HAVING a leash on its neck, hold by uncle sam.

France republic, get its independent international status, not for free. In fact, country like France, have to fight sh*ty hard, to get that independence, that you take them for granted.

You think those benifited from "Marshall's Plan" 马歇尔计划, can get rid of the leash on their neck, that easily? France for one, give up many other things, to gain the TRUE independent, after benifited from Marshall's plan. Those things given up, the HEALTHY military industry is one of them.

By I meaning HEALTHY, I mean the military industry must be both "100% under one's own consciousness control", and "reasonably big and vast enough to cover his own consciousness needs." It means one country's national defence, shall not be "one part of a bigger picture", and THAT national defence capability, shall be potent enough.

France choose to toss the BS of "being one part of a bigger picture" to tear the leash on its neck; and thus suffers the consequnce like "NATO's achievement is NATO's, not France's". France got many things of its own, but (nearly all of) those (those "of its own") things have no chance to be compatite-able, to match of those USA industrilization (产业结构、产业链) ... Simply put, even any other condition is set to equal, France is no match of USA. BEING FRANCE, is simply BEING LOWER HAND; while BEING USA, is simply BEING UPPER HAND.

Enough for political discuss of France, before mods finds trouble. What I intent, is to TESTIFY, that country like Japan and Germany, even GIVEN much more fair condition of national development, BEING THEY THEMSELVES, is simply being lower hand, than SOMEONE.

There are REASONS, for only so few (three, actually) players, to be eligible to actually sit at the desk of... stuff like M.A.D., stuff like superpower... and iderectly this thread talking about - stuff like a HEALTY military industry.

There are something ASYMMETRIC, on birth, on born. Talk it too much, is being off topic; don't talk (and consider) it at all, is simply being naive.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
pugachev_diver said:
A naked ship doesn't do much at this stage, it still take quite a few years until J15 could go on ships. Then it would take another year or two until all these crews can be trained and maximize the ships potential. PLAN is not like the US navy, where it could just retire a carrier and transfer the crews to the new one. China doesn't have these kind of carrier crew, they have to train them from scratch.
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I don't think that is necessarily true. Let see J-15 first fly in August 2009. So now it is almost year and half . They should finish testing by now. And start preserial production . The latest picture appear to confirm that is the case.

Training pilot on carriere landing is easier now because they all done in simulator.They have been training since 2008. NITKA in Ukraine help with flight crew training. They have built facility in Wuhan for ground training since last year

Varyag system testing should be done by next year the latest. Assuming they can crank up a squadron of J15 by the end of 2012, give it another 2 year for them to get proficient. I see 2014 or 2015 as the date of IOC. Assuming there is no hiccup along the way.

Anyway Carriere operation is not so urgent task in their overall naval strategy or doctrine. so they can afford to take their time. Taiwan contigency can be handled by land based fighter. Their primary objective is to provide platform for training the next wave of pilot,developed tactic and doctrine, testing the subsytem

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On September 5, 2008, PLA Daily reported that the Dalian Naval Academy—China’s premier military institution under the command of the navy headquarters—had established a program to recruit pilot cadets. The article revealed the recruitment of 50 pilots, ostensibly selected to receive a four year education in ship-based aircraft flight. It has been widely assumed that this program was for the recruitment and training of the PLAN’s first class of carrier aviators (PLA Daily, September 5, 2008). Some analysts have speculated that if in fact the report is true then the first pilot program of recruiting pilot cadets is an indicator of an important decision made by the PLAN as a final stage of preparation for its highly touted carrier program (Chinamil.com.cn, September 10, 2008).

Another element of China’s carrier pilot training program that is shrouded in mystery is how it is training PLAN aircraft carrier pilots. After all, the Varyag will be China’s first aircraft carrier. To that end, China has been building training centers and actively seeking outside expertise to help train its pilot in carrier naval aviation. There are also reports that China is building several carrier-based fighter pilot systems for training. A couple of these installations, which are reportedly located in Liaoning, Hubei and Shanxi provinces, are designed to simulate the deck of an aircraft carrier landing system. For example, the massive carrier pilot training base at Huludao, Liaoning province appears to be a near duplicate of the design of NITKA (Ukrainian Nazemniy Ispitatelno—

Brazil also help with flight training
China is also reportedly seeking to train pilots for ship-based aircraft at naval aviation training centers in Ukraine. The center is equipped with state-of-the-art simulators for taking off from angled decks, landing with arresting wires, and emergency response operations (China Review News, April 21). Furthermore, Brazil and China had reached an agreement in 2009 to train personnel from the PLAN in Brazil. In the interview (available in Portuguese), Brazil's Defense Minister Nelson Jobim announced that the two sides reached a training agreement to stage PLAN officers abroad the NAe Sao Paulo, Brazil’s Clemenceau-class aircraft carrier (See “PLAN Officers to Train on Brazilian Aircraft Carrier,” China Brief, June 12, 2009).



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A

antiterror13

Brigadier
kroko said:
Thats not unsurprising. Japan has a long story of nilitary shipbuilding dating back to
But i agree that eventually china will surpass japan´s level. Perhabs not in terms of tech (after all they have US tech), but at least in terms of total tonnage and numbers.

China has already surpassed Japan in total tonnage of shipbuilding industry, I think she did it in 2007
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Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
kroko said:
Thats not unsurprising. Japan has a long story of nilitary shipbuilding dating back to the early XX century...it already built carriers in the 1930´s (even nazi germany had to copy IJN carrier tech in order to build graf zeppelin); they built the largest battleship ever created...

compare that to china who only started to built decent warships less than 20 years ago. Of course japan is far ahead

But i agree that eventually china will surpass japan´s level. Perhabs not in terms of tech (after all they have US tech), but at least in terms of total tonnage and numbers.

for example china new SSK is as large as the soryu class. Perhabs not as advanced, but the size is similar. thats something.

If they could get to build something as large as the kongo class...

But i think that the tipping point would be for china to built AC. I dont think that the "leash" will allow japan to go there. After all, japan cant get offensive weapons, and AC´s are definetly offensive weapons.

Im talking about shipyards, not the effectiveness of the ship
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Kroko again check your fact firrst . China is the biggest shipbuilder in the world since January 2010

Japan is a distant 3rd after Korea

In every category of high tech ship China has beat their competitor down. VLCC(Very large Crude Carriere), LNG Cariere, Super large container ship. The only thing China hasn't built sofar is Cruise liner

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China has now surpassed South Korea as the world’s largest shipbuilder. China has 34.7 percent of the world market. Since 2000, South Korea has had the largest share of the world shipbuilding market after taking the lead from Japan.

China has invested significant resources into expanding its merchant shipbuilding industry, as a way to improve its warship building capability. Three years ago, China produced about a quarter of the world’s merchant ships, while South Korea was in first place, producing about a third. It was then believed that China would take first place in the next 5-10 years.

The big thing holding China back in the warship building area was the shortage of skilled personnel. By encouraging merchant shipbuilding, the government creates experienced ship builders for the more complex task of building warships. In most cases, merchant ships are larger than warships, and much less complex. For example, a common type of merchant ship is the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) of 300,000 deadweight tons (DWT). This is the largest size tanker than can use the Straits of Malacca to carry oil from the Persian Gulf to East Asia. These ships haul two million barrels (about 290,000 tons) of oil per trip. These ships are larger than the biggest American aircraft carriers (like the Nimitz class, that are 110,000 tons displacement, and nearly 1,100 feet long.)

The world's most advanced super-large crude oil tanker will make its maiden voyage from Guangzhou Zhongchuan Longxue Shipbuilding base later this month, according to Guangzhou Daily.
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Renowned as "the aircraft carrier" of commercial ships, the 308,000-ton super large pilotless crude carrier "Xin Buyang" is of the largest tonnage in the world, featuring independent technology in research and development, designing and construction.

The deck is 333 meters long, larger than three football fields and the tanker can displace 350,000 tons, three times larger than the U.S. Navy's aircraft carriers.

The pilotless crude carrier, equipped with the most advanced automatic navigation system, can withstand the worst weather on the seas and sail in 60 days around the world.

China to build its sixth LNG carrier
China's Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding (Group) Co has secured an order for a 147,000 cu.m liquefied natural gas carrier to serve Shanghai's LNG project.The deal was signed on Sunday in Beijing
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Shanghai Daily reports that the ship is expected to be delivered in October 2010 to carry LNG from Malaysia to Shanghai's Yangshan Deep Water Port. It will be owned and managed by Shanghai LNG Shipping Co, a joint venture between China LNG Shipping (Holdings) Co, Shenergy Group and China National Offshore Oil Corporation.

The ship will be the sixth 147,000 cu.m LNG vessel to be built by Hudong-Zhonghua, a unit of CSSC.

The yard delivered China's first LNG carrier, Dapeng Sun, in 2008. It was built within the framework of a cooperation agreement with what was then Aker Yards in France, the former Chantiers de l'Atlantique. Aker Yards (now STX Europe) provided the design -- which uses a No.96 membrane containment system (under license of GTT) -- as well as technical assistance throughout the entire construction and testing period.
 
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