China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[ChongqingHotPot92]

It was due to Deng's radical ideology - now in retrospect, almost equally radical as Mao just in the opposite direction - that economic development trumps everything, including national security. 造不如买，买不如租. Y-10 was only the tip of the iceberg.

It was not until the late Hu era, 25 years later, that China got actually serious about strategic defense and started the ball rolling for Xi.

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This is why when people say that Hu was more "moderate" I just 呵呵 and let them know that Xi is just continuing Hu's last policies - SCS, Yaogan, hypersonics, ASAT and ABM.

Do we have any evidence of either the US or USSR pressuring Deng into his administration's nuclear self-castration?

 

[Kalec]

China shut down WGPu production at Guangyuan and Jiuquan 404 during the early and mid. 1980s, long before the end of the Cold War and access to digital design tools for warhead miniaturization.

Not very long before the cold war, 404 probably shut down by the second half of 80s and Guangyuan at 1990s. Although 404 officially shut down WgPu production but from what I heard that they converted original plutonium production to tritium, which is a by-product of WgPu anyway. It means they are still acquiring WgPu at small scale as by-product of tritium for the entire 90s through 00s.

Meanwhile 404 started huge expansion on previous military reactor and reprocessing area in 2017. I don't think there is any public plan about new construction in the former military reprocessing area and all of the "concerning" fast breeder reprocessing plants are in another city as well. I would say there is a very high probability that they has begun restarting WgPu since 2018.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Do we have any evidence of either the US or USSR pressuring Deng into his administration's nuclear self-castration?

No, there is no evidence of foreign pressure. US didn't even think that a shutdown would occur until it did. My theory is he did this of his own will, to politically signal his distance from Mao.

 

[Abominable]

“By the late 1980s and up to the mid-1990s, we expanded our knowledge of the nuclear weapon design requirements step by step. We came to agree with your scientists that we had mastered 80 percent and then 90 percent of the full potential [i.e., efficiency] of the nuclear weapon design. The ability to get the last 10 percent would be of very little military value and also very expensive to acquire. We did not see the military requirement for further nuclear weapons tests, nor were we able to justify the expense. So we agreed with you to enter into a CTBT.’ And we thought that, by doing this, we could cooperate with you [the United States] on ending the nuclear arms race. But that apparently was not your [American] idea.”

Something does not seem right at China's policy level. China shut down WGPu production at Guangyuan and Jiuquan 404 during the early and mid. 1980s, long before the end of the Cold War and access to digital design tools for warhead miniaturization. An of course, construction at Fuling was completely wasted for nothing. Then in the words of Hu Side, China agreed to CTBT before they even finished the warhead miniaturization process with the hope that Washington (and Moscow) would be merciful. Then combine those Deng-era (with due respects to all of Deng's achievements) self-castrations with Jeffrey Lewis' analysis of minimum deterrence, it appears that the CPC leadership had a naive level of confidence in nuclear deterrence as if even having a few bombs would be sufficient in preventing general wars. Therefore, was REALLY because of the CPC's naive confidence in just having a few nukes, or was China SO POOR back in the 80s that they had to save money by even cutting down nukes?

International agreements are meaningless. China or any country can withdraw from the CTBT at any time they want.

China under Deng cooperated very closely with America. It allowed American economic investment into China which in turn put China where it is today.

What's the point in having nuclear weapons if you're a third world country?

 

[Kalec]

International agreements are meaningless. China or any country can withdraw from the CTBT at any time they want.

CTBT has never been in force, just saying.

 

[ChongqingHotPot92]

China under Deng cooperated very closely with America. It allowed American economic investment into China which in turn put China where it is today.

What's the point in having nuclear weapons if you're a third world country?

Party and state survival.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Something does not seem right at China's policy level. China shut down WGPu production at Guangyuan and Jiuquan 404 during the early and mid. 1980s, long before the end of the Cold War and access to digital design tools for warhead miniaturization

production restarted in 2017-18 with massive expansion.

kalec explained very well..

Not very long before the cold war, 404 probably shut down by the second half of 80s and Guangyuan at 1990s. Although 404 officially shut down WgPu production but from what I heard that they converted original plutonium production to tritium, which is a by-product of WgPu anyway. It means they are still acquiring WgPu at small scale as by-product of tritium for the entire 90s through 00s.

Meanwhile 404 started huge expansion on previous military reactor and reprocessing area in 2017. I don't think there is any public plan about new construction in the former military reprocessing area and all of the "concerning" fast breeder reprocessing plants are in another city as well. I would say there is a very high probability that they has begun restarting WgPu since 2018.

 

[Kalec]

Plant 404

2017 and 2023

 

[Dante80]

Party and state survival.

Yes, and thankfully (for the common people in China of course) China did not steer itself towards becoming a larger N. Korea.

 

[BoraTas]

It was due to Deng's radical ideology - now in retrospect, almost equally radical as Mao just in the opposite direction - that economic development trumps everything, including national security. 造不如买，买不如租. Y-10 was only the tip of the iceberg.

It was not until the late Hu era, 25 years later, that China got actually serious about strategic defense and started the ball rolling for Xi.

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This is why when people say that Hu was more "moderate" I just 呵呵 and let them know that Xi is just continuing Hu's last policies - SCS, Yaogan, hypersonics, ASAT and ABM.

Hu actually conquered islands from the Philippines LOL. How many times a US MDT ally got its territory conquered fter 1945?

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Xi just happened to be the guy in whose term China's power became consequential for the US and US domestic politics Redditized.